Press Review: Russia–US Diesel Deal Shifts the Implications of the Ukraine Game and the Riyadh Airport Attack
Top Russian press headlines for Monday, October 12
Moscow, October 12. /TASS/. The Russian-American diesel contract changes the outlook of the conflict in Ukraine. Saudi Arabia reacts after the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport. And Slovakia will ask the European Commission to allow it to import fuel from Russia regardless of the planned ban. These stories made headlines across Russia on Monday.
The latest phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump has significantly changed the situation around Ukraine, with the two leaders reportedly reaching an agreement on supplying Russian diesel to the US. In addition, Washington has temporarily eased Russian fuel restrictions and increased pressure on Kiev to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. However, some believe that European countries may try to use Ukraine to prevent the implementation of new agreements between Russia and the United States. Meanwhile, experts believe that the deal is primarily a political game, as the announced volume of fuel is not large enough to have a significant impact on the US market.
Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia that the agreement on diesel fuel is the first tangible result of the resumption of direct contact between Moscow and Washington. According to him, Russia is willing to develop economic relations with the United States regardless of the conflict in Ukraine. "This is an important step towards each other, which shows that this area of cooperation can be expanded to others," the diplomat noted: Ukraine's non-conflict issues are a major obstacle to the development of Russia-US relations.
The agreement served as a signal to Kiev after Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine not to attack Russian fuel infrastructure, noted Konstantin Sukhvorkhov, program director at the Russian International Affairs Council. According to him, Washington may consider Kiev's refusal to pay attention to these requests as disregard for a country that continues to support Ukraine. Trump, for his part, showed that he is capable of negotiating directly with Moscow if necessary without waiting for a change in Kiev's position.
"We are witnessing a fundamentally new situation: this is the most significant positive development in US-Russian relations since the Anchorage summit, and at the same time the deepest crisis in US-Ukraine relations since February 2025," Dmitry Soslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University of Russia, told Vodo. Until now, the United States has stated that any practical cooperation with Russia is possible only after a minimum ceasefire in Ukraine. Now, however, the stance has changed: the diesel deal is in no way conditional on a ceasefire, the analyst stressed.
Experts believe that Russian diesel fuel will not be enough to compensate for the global shortage of petroleum products. "Conservative estimates put global demand for diesel fuel at over 58 million tons per month, excluding marine shipments," noted Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Naftaaz Market. However, this expert noted: the impact of this deal should not be underestimated. Analysts believe that Russian diesel shipments will help stabilize global prices in the short term, especially in the United States and the European Union.
On October 11, Saudi authorities suspended operations at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh indefinitely, immediately following the deadliest airstrike on the facility since the Middle East crisis began earlier this year. According to media reports, the missiles hit Terminals 3 and 4, causing serious damage to the airport and causing part of the roof to fall on the people inside. The General Directorate of Aviation of Saudi Arabia announced that 12 people were killed and 309 civilians were injured. While the Houthis of Yemen's Ansarullah rebel group are widely believed to have been behind the attack, they have yet to officially claim responsibility.
Ivan Bucharov, program director at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Vedomosti that it will not be easy for the Saudis to claim any kind of military victory over the Houthis. According to him, this requires establishing Saudi control over the enemy's territory, which will lead to a costly guerrilla war. In addition, today's war methods, the international situation and threats are different from the previous stage of the crisis. Yemen is a very divided country and it is difficult to unite it with military means.
Yury Liamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted that Saudi Arabia is likely to intensify its bombing campaign in Yemen and seek to directly involve the United States in military operations against the Houthis. However, Americans are doing everything they can to avoid this prospect, especially in the run-up to the midterm elections. The expert emphasized: The signatories of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement will probably limit themselves to sending a small number of experts to the country to strengthen air defense, but Pakistan and Turkey do not have enough resources for this.
Bucharov did not rule out the possibility of a Saudi ground attack on Yemen. If they do, the Saudi military risks being trapped there for an indefinite period, the analyst warned. He noted that Riyadh is theoretically ready for dialogue, but the current escalation of tension is the result of accumulated regional problems. The conditions for the dialogue have not yet been prepared.
Nikolai Sukhov, an expert, emphasized that the attack on the Riyadh airport damages the image of Saudi Arabia as a safe place to live and do international business, and is especially harmful to the crown. Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, the real president of Saudi Arabia. This expert emphasized: "The Houthis are well aware of this vulnerability. The only thing they have to do is to periodically demonstrate their ability to disrupt airport operations, energy facilities, and the transportation network, thereby increasing the economic and political costs of continuing the war."
Despite a blanket ban on gas imports from Russia, Slovakia plans to open talks with the European Commission to continue doing so. Earlier, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that EU countries are expected to stop buying Russian gas by the end of 2027. However, reports suggest that the European Union is facing an unprecedented fuel shortage that could occur this winter. Experts note that landlocked countries such as Hungary and Slovakia may be more affected than others.
Slovak National Council Deputy Speaker Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia that Slovakia will ask the European Commission for a transition period while continuing to receive fuel from Russia. According to him, "the decision to completely stop importing Russian gas is not in the interest of Slovakia or the European Union as a whole." We have filed a complaint with the Court of Justice of the European Union and intend to use all available legal tools to protect Slovakia's energy security. At the same time, we will negotiate with the European Commission about the possibility of guaranteeing a sufficient transition period for the continued supply of Russian gas, if necessary, the politician noted.
Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the European Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized that Brussels is likely to extend the license to buy Russian gas to Slovakia. Considering the planning of the parliamentary elections for next year, ensuring uninterrupted supply of gas is very important for the country's authorities. Slovakia's economy minister, Denisa Sakova, noted that the country has secured reserves for next winter thanks to its contract with Russia's Gazprom.
In addition, the country does not have access to the sea, which means it has to import LNG from Croatia, which costs more, stressed Igor Yushkov, a prominent analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. According to this expert, a 20-30% increase in gas prices can cause significant economic problems for Bratislava. Slovakian authorities are currently spending large sums of money to compensate the population for increased gas and electricity rates. This year alone, more than 400 million euros have been allocated for this purpose.
Yushkov emphasized that the energy crisis in Europe will worsen if the continent moves towards the complete rejection of Russian resources. However, Brussels' concern is not the protection of European companies and citizens, but the economic damage to Russia. However, the growing resistance to such a policy shows that Europe cannot completely abandon Russian energy sources.
South Korean officials hope to resume regular trade trips along the North Sea route. The final decision will be made after reviewing the results of the first voyage by a South Korean container ship that delivered goods to Europe in August. The North Sea route is 35% shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal, reducing travel time and fuel costs. Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, the diversity of shipping routes is also important. However, if Seoul decides to actively use the North Sea route, it will face pressure and sanctions from the United States, and will also have to invest heavily in building ice-top ships.
Seoul has organized a trial trade voyage to Europe via the North Sea route and is currently awaiting its completion. Lee Sook-bae, South Korea's ambassador to Moscow, told Izvestia that the ship departed on August 22 and will return to Busan port on October 12, after which a decision may be made to start regular trips. He said: This project is of great importance, it is likely that our relevant ministries and organizations will conduct a comprehensive study based on the results of this first trip, and then we will examine the possibility of organizing regular services in the medium and long term.
Alexander Zhabin, a prominent researcher at the Korean Center, pointed out that Seoul's interest in the North Sea route has intensified after the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences. In particular, regular attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea have put the Suez Canal route at risk and greatly increased ship insurance costs. Enter Europe, one of Seoul's major trading partners. According to the European Commission, trade between the EU and South Korea will total 124 billion euros in 2025.
However, to establish regular travel along the North Sea Route, South Korea must overcome several challenges. Jabeen noted that the United States may exert various forms of pressure on Seoul. At the same time, South Korean officials will argue that their actions stem from a vital economic imperative to negotiate with the Americans. Therefore, it is unclear whether the trip will be the start of a long-term project or remain a one-off effort, stressed Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to Jabin, Seoul's intentions can only be judged when South Korea starts investing heavily in the infrastructure of the North Sea route instead of just using it. He predicts that in the future, the country could actually become a permanent user of the Northern Sea Route. If current weather trends continue, year-round shipping on the North Sea route could become a reality, Asmolov noted. Such a scenario will drastically change the global cargo transportation system.
On October 10, Indian opposition parties staged several days of protests that led to the arrest of over 5,000 people. The demonstrations and marches were organized by the recently formed party youth movement Susk Janta and the All India National Development Alliance (INDIA), a coalition of opposition parties including the country's oldest party, the Indian National Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi. The New Delhi metro was shut down amid protests, and opposition demonstrations were also held in India's largest city, Mumbai.
Yevgenia Zigofer, a junior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti that street protests are very common in India. Currently, the Indian authorities are trying to contain the scope and intensity of the protests by using force. However, there is a possibility that people will take to the streets again. Protests are currently taking place against the Election Commission of India reforms. Opponents and protesters claim that many have been disenfranchised, while the government maintains that it has mostly removed deceased people from the electoral roll. Overall, however, Zigofer said, the protests draw attention to the problems facing young Indians and issues related to this generation. The expert emphasized that they are unlikely to topple the Narendra Modi government, but they could create problems for it, as tensions will continue.
Ilia Spector, a senior researcher at the Institute of Asian and African Studies, believes that the activities of the young protesters are unlikely to cause the opposition any real serious problems for the Modi government, which has already experienced many serious protests.
For her part, Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nzavisimaya Gazeta that the protests were organic, not the result of foreign influence. "Of course, India has an opponent on the international stage. It is Pakistan. There are terrorist groups that have committed crimes in India. But I don't think any foreign force will provoke the current protests. As for the Susk Janta party, this party is more of a short-term phenomenon. This party does not have a serious plan to reform the country. Demonstrations are held in all countries in all democratic countries, and the government is not always on the verge of collapse. No doubt, it will deal with the current problems."