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The simultaneity of political calculations in Washington and Tel Aviv has once again raised the question of how far the elections can affect the security decisions of the United States and Israel.
According to Ambassador Arjan, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are both facing domestic political considerations and any developments in Iran's case can have consequences beyond the military field. However, the overlapping interests of the two parties should not be taken to mean the existence of a common plan to influence the elections without sufficient evidence.
Netanyahu and the shadow of internal crises
Benjamin Netanyahu welcomes the elections in a situation where his government's performance is still subject to criticism and evaluation by the Israeli public opinion. The 7th of October 2023 attack, security failures before that, the way wars are managed and the political responsibility of the cabinet for security developments are among the issues that cast a shadow on Israel's political atmosphere.
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In such an environment, the escalation of regional tensions can change the political agenda. When the external threat is at the center of attention, issues such as national security, military preparedness, and the need to confront the enemy may overwhelm domestic debates. This situation can create a political opportunity for the established government, but it does not necessarily lead to an increase in its popularity; Because the costs of war, casualties and feelings of insecurity may also intensify public discontent.
Therefore, it cannot be said with certainty that Netanyahu is seeking to escalate the crisis in order to postpone the election or change its result. However, the possible impact of electoral calculations on security and military decisions cannot be excluded from the analysis of regional developments.
Trump between the display of power and the cost of war
Donald Trump also faces his own considerations. He wants to show a strong and decisive face of America against foreign threats; An image that could be important to his political base. But entering a long war or expanding the conflict with Iran brings the risk of increasing military costs, destabilizing the energy market and intensifying economic pressures.
Therefore, the interests of Trump and Netanyahu are not the same in all areas. The two sides may agree on dealing with some threats, but disagree on the timing, scope and consequences of a military operation. For Washington, the global and domestic costs of war matter; While Tel Aviv's security and political calculations may create different priorities.
Iran should be ready for different scenarios
What can be concluded from these conditions is the existence of areas for overlapping political and security interests of the two governments, not necessarily a secret agreement to influence the elections. Proving such a claim requires concrete evidence, and one cannot simply conclude the existence of a common plan from the simultaneity of political and military developments.
For Iran, the more important issue than speculating about Trump's or Netanyahu's real intentions is to accurately evaluate the signs in the field and prepare for different scenarios. The possibility of crisis escalation should not be underestimated; Just like the occurrence of war should not be assumed certain. Making decisions based on reliable information, knowing the limitations of the other party and preparing for economic and security consequences is more important than relying on certain predictions about the electoral motives of leaders.