Another Slap to Europe

The White House's new decision has dealt another serious blow to the Atlantic alliance. The announcement of Trump's diesel deal with Russia has once again raised questions about US trust and credibility among its allies.

According to Ambassador Arjan's report, Iran newspaper wrote: The new decision of the White House dealt a new blow to the Atlantic Alliance. The announcement of Trump's diesel agreement with Russia has once again raised the issue of American trust and credibility among its allies and raised the question of whether the United States is really an ally of Europe and Ukraine. This incident was accompanied by a wave of protests against Trump and the White House. However, in response to these reactions, Donald Trump went further and in a telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, criticizing the attack on Russia's energy infrastructure, demanded his removal and the appointment of a new leader. The US president then announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire".

"Moscow and Kyiv have agreed to stop mutual attacks on each other's energy infrastructure," Donald Trump announced in a brief statement. "With immediate effect, an energy ceasefire has been established in the war between Russia and Ukraine," he wrote on the Truth Social social network without giving further details. Both sides have agreed. Don't violate it!” However, Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that he had not been informed of such an agreement before. In an interview with the Axios news website, the President of Ukraine said: "This was completely new news to me, but if the Russians agree to the energy ceasefire, Ukraine will also agree."

After the talks with the leaders of Canada, Finland and NATO, Zelensky wrote on his Facebook page: "Ukraine supports the ceasefire and it is very important that Russia also supports it." He added: "We are waiting to receive details from the American side. "For its part, Ukraine always fully supports steps towards de-escalation, protection of civilian lives and decisions necessary to end the war and ensure lasting peace." Experts believe that in order to escape the grievances of the Republican Party on the eve of the elections, Trump is making Ukraine and Europe victims of his wrong decisions and mistakes in the war against Iran.

Earlier this week, Trump announced the agreement on the export of Russian diesel to the United States and the suspension of the sanctions that were approved last month in a plan initiated by Lindsey Graham, a former US senator, until April 2027. European officials criticized the unbalanced policies of the Trump administration in the Ukraine crisis and called this agreement immoral and helping the Kremlin to advance its goals in the war. Kaya Callas, the European Union's foreign policy official, criticized Trump and announced that Europe will not implement this sanctions waiver and announced a large sanctions package against Russia. Andriy Babis, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, also called this decision "a real slap in the face of Europe" and a shocking action. Zelensky also rejected Trump's request to stop attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and considered the gasoil agreement a gift to Putin on his birthday.

This incident revealed the growing transatlantic divide once again. Since the inauguration of the Trump administration, Europeans' trust in the American security umbrella over NATO and the Green Continent has been damaged, and this action is a new blow to it. Europe, which is involved in security crises and sees the gray space between itself and Russia as smaller than before, is increasingly moving towards self-reliance and independence from America. Germany, which considers its confrontation with Russia to be inevitable, has expanded its military weapons and defense budgets, and the Baltic countries are reporting the imminent war and alertness. European internal crises have also made the way for right-wing parties to come to power smoother. A few weeks ago, the right-wing party Alternative for Germany achieved an impressive and unprecedented victory in the state elections. In France, predictions indicate the victory of the right-wing parties in the spring 2027 presidential elections with the nomination of Marine Le Pen. The common point of these parties is the reduction of security dependence on NATO and the United States and the desire for bilateral relations with Russia and the countries of the global south. In her election program, Le Pen has clearly announced that if she wins, she will withdraw France from the NATO command and cut off financial and military support for Ukraine, while France is now one of the most prominent financial and military supporters of Kiev.

Zelensky's position is more precarious than before. Reports in recent months about systematic corruption in the Ukrainian government and European officials' criticism of the lack of transparency and waste of EU aid have reduced his credibility in the European and Ukrainian public opinion. Successive dismissals and installations among high-ranking officials have also made it difficult for him to continue his political life. The former Minister of Defense of Ukraine also criticized Zelensky last month and called for elections. In addition, Ambassador Arjan quoted White House officials as saying that if Ukraine continues its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the United States will cut intelligence cooperation with Kiev. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the owner of the Starlink project, which Ukraine depends on for military operations, supported Trump's action in a tweet and accused Zelensky of exaggeration.

Apart from the fact that this agreement will not affect the high price of energy and fuel in the American market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US diesel fuel consumption is 3.9 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, according to Trump's claim of importing 300,000 tons of diesel in the first phase, it is equivalent to 2.25 million barrels, which is less than the consumption of diesel fuel in the United States for one day. The next steps will take place in the coming months, with the entire Russian import portfolio estimated to cover just under ten days of US fuel consumption. Apart from this, Ukraine's multiple attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure have caused the country's daily diesel production to drop dramatically, and experts doubt Russia's ability to meet the deal.

In addition to the fact that Trump expressed the numbers in tonnage instead of the conventional scale of barrels, this shows that he is more than able to solve the real problem of prices, he seeks to soften the electoral atmosphere in favor of the Republican Party, which is facing a low reaction and popularity after the start of the war against Iran. On the eve of the hardest winter since the start of the war in 2022, Kiev is now under pressure from three directions. With its attacks, Russia makes it more difficult for Ukraine to continue the war. America, which Kiev considered its ally and support, is turning its back on Ukraine and looking for an immediate solution to end the war to compensate for its miscalculation and shortcomings. Europe, which is considered the main supporter of Kiev, is now involved in internal crises on the eve of winter. All these developments are reminiscent of the famous sentence of international relations theorist Kent Waltz, who said in 1993: "NATO is not counting its last days, but its last years." The diesel deal, regardless of its insignificant impact on energy prices, shows that Washington's electoral calculus is now leaning on coalition commitments. The continuation of this process will make Ukraine face a very fragile situation on the eve of winter, which will limit Kiev's options for continuing this battle.