How Did Yemen Impose Its Terms of War on Saudi Arabia?

By introducing the "siege for siege" formula and enforcing reciprocal threats, Yemen has changed the equation of its war with Saudi Arabia and turned this strategy into an influential rule in the West Asian order.

Yemen has changed the equations of the war with Saudi Arabia by planning the equation of "encirclement against encirclement" and implementing mutual threats and has been able to turn this strategy into an effective rule in the order of West Asia.

Ambassador Arjan-International Group: The spokesman of the Yemeni armed forces has spoken about mutual response in areas such as airports, siege and increasing the level of conflict in his recent positions. Earlier, the idea of ​​dealing with the threat of the capital with the capital was raised. These positions were considered propaganda by some observers, but the developments of the last two months have shown that the Yemeni forces have been able to turn this approach into a new model in response to the Saudi attacks. A model that has affected the security balance of West Asia.

In contemporary naval conflicts, the superior power usually takes control of the bottlenecks, and the weaker side makes do with threats. Yemen's approach has reversed this pattern: restricting flights from Yemeni airports has been answered by targeting Saudi airports; The pressure on Yemen's ports and exports has been faced by the restriction of Saudi Arabia's export route from the Red Sea, and the increase in airstrikes has also been accompanied by missile and drone operations deep in Saudi Arabia.

In this way, Yemen is not only in a defensive position and seeks to create a reciprocal equation; An equation that is also related to the Strait of Hormuz. In a report from the British Parliament Library on the 13th of Mehr, it was stated that nearly seven percent of the world's oil passes through Bab al-Mandab. According to the same survey, Saudi Arabia has transferred a large part of its oil exports to alternative routes. As a result, both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have become levers for bargaining by the parties, and disruption in one of these passages increases the importance and cost of using the other.

The effectiveness of any strategy is measured on the battlefield, and the events of the past two months have been a test for this model. Saudi Arabia announced a large-scale operation on the west coast of Yemen and the recapture of Bab al-Mandeb; But successive assessments by the American Institute of War Studies finally concluded that the coastal advance had stopped. Reuters reports, from the words of field officials and analysts, considered the time of announcing this claim premature. In the heights around Taiz, the Yemeni forces stopped the ground movement of the forces aligned with Saudi Arabia by taking possession of the heights and creating continuous embankments. At the same time, missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and export facilities continued.

The consequences of this process can be seen on two levels. From a military point of view, it was possible to capture the territories, but it remained difficult to maintain them. On a broader level, Saudi Arabia turned to foreign aid to advance the war. The joint defense pact with Türkiye and Pakistan was implemented, but the media of these two countries described the role of foreign forces as defensive, not participating in combat operations. This situation shows that the other side has not been able to disrupt the equation and has been forced to redefine its coalition arrangements.

One of the important consequences of these developments is the revelation of a gap on the opposite front. The UAE, which was one of the main partners of Saudi Arabia in the first years of the Yemen war, has not been actively involved in the recent escalation. Some regional media have linked this absence with Abu Dhabi's concern about its ports and economic plans being targeted; At the same time, the UAE continues to invest in the southern ports of Yemen.

On the other hand, according to the Axios report, Washington has distanced itself from combat participation and has kept information and advisory support on the agenda. Saudi Arabia appealed to Turkey and Pakistan to compensate for this situation, but both countries have announced that they will not send ground forces to the battlefield. The result of this arrangement is a front with extensive support but limited combat power; While the main burden of the war is still on the shoulders of Saudi Arabia, the initiator of the conflict.

Developments in the field also affect the course of the talks. A Yemeni delegation met with the UN special envoy in Muscat, and a number of media reports have announced the initial agreement between the two sides on a six-month framework for a ceasefire. However, the agreement has not yet been officially confirmed. The UN envoy in the Security Council emphasized that military achievements cannot replace negotiations. However, the new equation makes a simple end to the war difficult; Because retreat does not necessarily eliminate it and may only change its shape and location.

The question in the coming months is whether the six-month framework can transfer this balance to the negotiating table or whether Sana'a will maintain it in the same arena it was formed. The upcoming developments will clarify the answer; From the condition of the heights around Taiz to the costs that insurance companies set for crossing the Red Sea.

On Friday, a tripartite defense agreement was signed between three important countries in the region, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan. Immediately after the publication of this news and in the initial analysis, the main reason or purpose of this agreement was focused on "how to deal with Iran after Saudi Arabia was targeted as the host of American bases during the Ramadan war".

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emphasized the importance of continuing diplomatic efforts to establish stability in the region.

The diplomats of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt met in Pakistan on Sunday to prevent the further spread of conflicts in the region and to start their mediation efforts. After a few hours, the first round of negotiations for today ended.