African Nations on 'Knife's Edge' as US Embassy Warns Americans of Long-Range Strikes
As regional tensions rise, the Horn of Africa faces risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Following attacks in Addis Ababa, the US Embassy warned citizens of long-range threats.
Ethiopia's capital a day after the reported explosions
The entire Horn of Africa region is said to be on a knife edge. As drone blasts reportedly hit the Ethiopian capital in early October, the US Embassy in Addis Ababa warned US citizens of the risk of "long-range attacks".
Analysts say there is a high probability that Ethiopia and Eritrea are about to break out into a new war with alarming regional support from both sides.
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The US Embassy in Addis Ababa warned Americans in Ethiopia on its website that it is "aware of possible reports of long-range attacks on Ethiopian military installations on several occasions in October of this year. US citizens should exercise caution and follow the advice of local authorities."
The embassy also responded to the reported misinformation, "Some social media accounts contain false and misleading reports about the security situation in Ethiopia. US citizens are urged to verify information using multiple sources or reliable information."
Indeed, although explosions in and around Addis Ababa, mostly at military facilities, can be confirmed to have occurred, the horrific scene of drones hitting buildings in a major African city that houses the headquarters of the African Union cannot be proven to have happened.
A request for comment to the Ethiopian government was not returned.
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Rebel groups opposed to the Ethiopian government have joined together to form the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition claimed responsibility for the Addis Ababa attacks and said it used drones.
In early October, Ethiopian forces drove out rebel groups that had occupied the Tigrayan capital, Mekele. The operation ended a four-year ceasefire between Ethiopia and Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost province.
The recent war was largely triggered by Ethiopia's assertion that it wanted access to Red Sea ports. When Eritrea became independent in 1993, it was landlocked. Access to the sea is "of vital importance to Ethiopian civilization," Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in his swearing-in speech for a new five-year term on Oct. 5.
"Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has access to the sea," he added.
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A potential regional expansion of any conflict also stems from the creation of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt and Sudan are at odds with Addis Ababa after building a dam on the Blue Nile, affecting water access to these downstream countries. Egypt took a formal stance against Ethiopia this month, when a coalition with Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
Frank García, Assistant Minister of African Affairs, also met with Minister Saleh. This spokesperson added: Both American officials emphasized the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all Horn of Africa countries.
Following the talks, US State Department spokesman Thomas "Tommy" Piaget released a statement saying: "Elevation of cross-border tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could affect the entire region. The Horn of Africa cannot afford another military conflict and humanitarian crisis. A conflict would jeopardize the continued cooperation of the United States with both countries on common interests."
"We strongly urge Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors, exercise maximum restraint and return to the dialogue and cooperation agreed upon in their 2018 peace framework. Peace through dialogue is the only path to sustainable security, economic growth and prosperity," added Pigot.
He continued: "We are witnessing the start of Eritrea's move towards Ethiopia, while a coalition of regional countries including Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea have issued a statement that is a veiled threat against Ethiopia and its regional ambitions to establish a naval presence in the Red Sea and expand a series of hydroelectric dams throughout the Nile region. It is only complicated by the Houthis, the attempt to close the Red Sea shipping and the war in Iran.
"The risk of regional conflict remains high," Hudson said. "Egypt will be glad to see Ethiopia embroiled in civil strife and unable to pursue its ambitions in the Nile and the Red Sea. Similarly, Sudan hopes that the civil conflict in Ethiopia will distract Addis from its support for the Rapid Support Forces militia in Sudan's war.
"Local disputes can quickly escalate into regional and international conflicts with global implications in this corner of the world. The closure of the direct route to Bab al-Mandab will be quickly felt in the United States due to uncontrolled tensions and violence across the Red Sea," Hudson added.
Paul Tilsley is a veteran journalist who has covered over three decades from four continents. Based in Johannesburg, South Africa, he can be followed on X @paultilsley.