The cost of transporting oil quadrupled; The upward trend of the price of Brent

The oil shipping crisis has kept the pressure on the energy market despite the drop in prices since the height of the war. Post, the cost of transporting oil quadrupled; The upward trend of the price of Brent appeared first on Safir Arjan.

According to Ambassador Arjan, the oil market has faced a transportation crisis. A crisis that shows energy costs aren't likely to drop anytime soon. Although oil prices have fallen from their wartime highs, continuing problems with crude oil transportation suggest that this drop in prices may not do much to prevent further pressure on consumers.

As the war drags on for much of this year, energy costs have become a major concern for investors. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil, as the international oil index, has fluctuated a lot recently and traded in the range of $105 per barrel this week; Because traders are simultaneously assessing supply disruptions and the prospect of an end to the war.

However, according to crude oil market analysts, the concern of energy experts is no longer limited to the lack of oil supply, but the maritime transportation crisis has also become one of the main issues of this market.

According to data from shipping information website Fearnpulse, charter rates for very large tankers (VLCCs), which are widely used in the Persian Gulf, have more than quadrupled over the past year. This rate has risen from around $50,000 per day in late 2025 to more than $200,000 per day in October.

Iranian oil, oil industry, global oil, Brent crude oil, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman | Sea of Oman, American and Zionist war against Iran.

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Also, a separate estimate by BCA Research shows that the cost of shipping giant oil tankers from the Persian Gulf to the Far East has increased from less than $2 to more than $30 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the situation of diesel fuel, which is used for ships and other means of transport, has added to the deterioration of the situation. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that diesel prices are still near their all-time highs, reaching around $6.29 a gallon this week.

Disruption of sea routes and reduction of the number of oil tankers

The BCA Research Institute has announced that the blocking of the Bab al-Mandab strait has caused some ships passing through the Middle East region to take longer routes.

On the other hand, recent attacks have reduced the number of active and usable oil tankers in the world. The world has lost about 20 oil tankers over the past two weeks, according to estimates by HFI Research, a firm that provides alternative energy analysis.

In this context, the BCA Research Institute announced in a note addressed to its clients that the revival of Middle East crude oil exports has led to a sharp increase in transportation costs and has caused major disruptions in the global crude oil markets.

This institute also pointed to the impact of transportation problems on neutralizing the positive effects of the increase in oil exports, and wrote that the increase in the traffic of oil tankers, including tankers that operate secretly, through the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced the severity of the lack of global supply of crude oil; However, it is still too early to announce a complete resolution of concerns in the oil market.

Brent oil price forecast to increase to $135

Last month, the Kepler Institute raised the possibility of an increase in the price of crude oil up to $150 per barrel, referring to the pressures caused by the diesel market and disruption in the flow of maritime transport in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

Also, HFI Research predicted that Brent crude could reach $135 a barrel by early November, citing tight tanker supply and rising freight rates, both of which are putting upward pressure on prices.

The institute wrote in its recent note that if the current escalation of tensions, including the daily attack on several oil tankers, continues and the slowness of ship traffic on the route to Oman continues, the price of Brent oil could increase to $133-135 per barrel.