LIZ PEEK: Two Troubled Senate Races Could Derail Democrats' Blue Wave Fantasy

James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed Face Tough Senate Races as Past Remarks and Shifting Positions Give Republican Opponents Fresh Ammunition

House Speaker Johnson says he is confident heading into the midterm elections

There are three weeks left until the mid-term elections. In some states, voting has already begun. Betting site Kalshi gives a 61 percent chance that Democrats will win control of the Senate.

Recent developments in the Texas and Michigan races suggest that you should keep your money in your pocket.

The polls are tightening as voters learn more about Democratic front-runners James Talarico in Texas and Abdul-El Said in Michigan. Intimacy breeds humiliation, they say. Nowhere is this more true than in politics.

Ken Paxton called for James Talarico's 11-day absence from a Trump rally, prompting a backlash from the campaign.

Talarico is the 2026 version of Beto O'Rourke, the failed 2018 Senate candidate who memorably broadcast brushing his teeth live as a publicity stunt, but ultimately lost to Republican Ted Cruz despite his commendable oral hygiene. Talarico, a photogenic 37-year-old state representative, recently disappeared from public view for nearly two weeks, an extraordinary absence that coincided with Election Day. He says he had the flu. Does he not know about truffles? Has he heard of Zoom?

Her disappearance sparked a whirlwind of apparently false rumors. Because Talarico has expressed outlandish ideas in the past, such as a belief in the existence of six genders or the non-binary nature of God — which he has had to backtrack on — some voters believe such rumors at first.

Tallarico's 'fake' Texas centrism tests Paxton in race for key GOP Senate seat

State Attorney General Kenpaxton is an unpopular candidate and carries considerable baggage, but his well-funded campaign is running ads featuring Talarico making inflammatory comments: "I've always considered myself a Christian who hates Christianity." Talarico has also voted as a state representative against banning biological males from playing women's sports. oh

Beto O'Rourke failed in part because he embraced aggressive gun control in a state where most people own guns. In 2022, Talarico appeared with the Texas Humane Law Network and warned of the "existential" need to "reduce our meat consumption" in a state that prides itself on its cows.

No doubt, Talarico's young progressive base won't be put off by his strange pacing, but his prolonged absence from the campaign trail casts a cloud over him. Some polls show him barely ahead of Ken Paxton. A recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows the candidates tied at 7 percent undecided.

As Trump rallies to energize his still-loyal base, it's hard to imagine Talarico winning.

Abd al-Sayed, who calls himself a doctor but is not legally allowed to practice medicine, changes his position as much as people change their underwear.

A mainstay of his platform has been his enthusiastic endorsement of Medicare-for-all. In a podcast from 2020, he says Medicare-for-All will "destroy the private insurance market." Today, the campaign's website says, "Medicare for All does not have to ban additional private insurance through unions or employers, although Medicare for All should make these choices redundant and unnecessary."

Additionally, Al-Sayed explained during his primary run in January, "If you like your insurance from your employer or your union, it can still be for you."

This sounds a lot like President Obama telling gullible voters, "If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan." After millions of Americans saw their plans canceled, Politifact called it the hoax of 2013.

Why al-Sayed's refusal to sign? First, unions. Organized labor has done a great job demanding expensive health care benefits for workers — benefits that are arguably more generous than what Uncle Sam offers. There are half a million union members in the Wolverine state. He needs their votes, ideals be damned.

Second, those pesky taxes. Al-Sayed must explain how he plans to pay for government health care. A writer at The Bridge, a nonpartisan Michigan news organization, notes that "in 2020, the nonpartisan Urban Institute estimated that U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders' version of Medicare for All would cost the federal government $34 trillion over a 10-year period."

Experts say the money to fund such a program would help not only wealthy families, but middle-class families as well. In short, Medicare for all means higher taxes for everyone. Al-Sayed has admitted the same thing in the past.

Al-Sayed presents himself as a health care expert, given his role in local parish offices, but these periods were admittedly brief and unremarkable.

Also troubling is al-Sayed's association with anti-American Muslim organizations and figures that he has refused to condemn, such as Hami Hassan Pekir. Al-Sayed recently claimed in a press conference that neither he nor any of his family members are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, a group designated as a terrorist group by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, the candidate's half-sister, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, stated the opposite and claimed years ago on social networks that her family had been members of the Muslim Brotherhood "for a long time" and that some of her relatives had been "imprisoned" for being associated with this group.

Al-Sayed has also been investigated for claiming dual citizenship in Egypt and the United States in the past, a claim he now denies. "I have dual citizenship and I spent most of my summers in another country..." Al-Sayed said at the Detroit Globe Fashion conference in 2016. He made the same claim on his resume. Was he lying then or is he lying now?

Also, during a recent debate on whether El-Sayed considers Iran the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism or Israel a greater threat to the United States, the progressive anti-Israel candidate refused to answer. For many, his ambiguity is a disqualification

Michigan polls have tightened over the past few weeks, with several polls now showing El Cid by just a point or two, well within the margin of error. My guess is Rodgers wins.

Get a roundup of top reviews and original content throughout the week.