How Is Trump's Policy Testing Farmers' Loyalty Ahead of the Midterm Elections?

Farmers interviewed by TIME explain how the economic consequences of Trump's policies are now affecting their daily activities.

Rising diesel and fertilizer costs, along with President Donald Trump's changing tariff policies, have made it harder for Oklahoma farmers to plan for future crops. In the past few months, he says, the political mood among fellow farmers — traditionally some of the president's most reliable supporters — has begun to shift.

"From my conversations with other farmers, there's a higher level of dissatisfaction with what's going on in the [Trump] administration," Rendell says. "You didn't really see it before, but now we see it and hear it."

The findings come as Democrats are polling competitively in some traditionally Republican states like Texas, Iowa and Kansas. Democratic leaders also address farmers' economic frustrations in their policy proposals. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, unveiled a bill last month that aims to lay the groundwork for "the first fertilizer stockpile in American history." American farmers are being "crushed from all sides by this administration," Schumer said as he introduced the Strategic Fertilizer Stockpile Act, endorsed by the National Farmers Union and the New York Farm Bureau.

Farmers and agriculture experts interviewed by TIME described four overlapping pressures: Trump's expansion of low-tariff beef imports, rising fertilizer and diesel costs caused by the global energy crisis stemming from the Iran war, and tariffs that have increased some production costs while provoking retaliation against U.S. exports.

In response, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wells told Time that Trump has "repeatedly reaffirmed his support for America's big farmers and ranchers."

He added: "While the president has been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of the conflict in Iran, the administration continues to implement Trump's proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and energy abundance to keep America on a solid economic path."

Trump campaigned on promises to keep the US out of foreign wars and focus on prosperity at home.

Farmers who spoke to TIME say the economic consequences of his policies are now spilling over into their daily activities.

The average price of ground beef in the United States has risen sharply since the end of 2020. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, this price has increased from $5.58 per pound in August 2024 to $6.92 in August 2026. Shrinking cattle herds, drought and high demand have all contributed to its increase. At the beginning of this year, the cattle population in the United States fell to the lowest level in the last 75 years.

The price hike has created a political challenge for Trump.

"A big part of [Trump's] campaign for families across the United States two years ago was the fact that they could keep inflation down," said Joe Glaber, a researcher at the Institute for International Food Policy Research, noting that many rural Americans and farmers are concerned that this hasn't happened.

Trump's 90-day plan to suspend tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported foreign beef to ease pressure on food bills took effect on September 1. The stated goal was to sell imported beef 25% below the market price.

But the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), an agricultural lobby group, has urged Trump to reverse course, citing its own analysis showing that increased imports have not reduced prices for consumers. AFBF tracked daily prices of 80 percent lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores in 22 states the day after the announcement took effect. In 30 of these 41 stores, the price of ground beef on September 23 was about the same as on September 2.

Current Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, an eighth-generation farmer and rancher, says farmers have felt the effects of the fallout from the beef import plan.

"I haven't talked to a rancher who isn't upset about it," Miller says. Only packers and processors reap the benefits, not consumers or ranchers. "The calves coming into the market now are bringing $300 to $500 less per head."

Ground beef has become the "poster child for higher food prices," making it the focus of political debate, said Darrel Peale, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University who specializes in livestock and cattle markets.

Beef producers increasingly feel that Trump is willing to throw them under the bus before trying to lower beef prices. "None of the policy actions have had a significant impact on beef prices, and there is no quick fix for high beef prices," Peele told TIME.

In Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas — the 10 largest beef-producing states — Trump's approval rating has fallen, according to Civiqs polling data collected from Aug. 21 through September. 21.

"Typically, for Republicans, our strongest voting block is rural America," Miller said.

"I think we're going to lose some statewide competition in Texas because of a lot of things," he adds. "It's like dying from 1,000 cuts."

Recent ICE raids targeting meatpacking plants across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are also raising concerns and putting more pressure on the U.S. beef supply chain.

"ICE [recently] raided packing plant workers in Kansas and shut down packing plants," says Miller. "It lowers prices for ranchers because the cattle go up again, they can't be processed, and it raises prices for the consumer because there's less beef on the market."

Homeland Security Secretary Marquin Mullin disputed the nature of the raids on Sept. 25, saying, "ICE is not conducting an on-the-job operation in Kansas." The absence of workers nevertheless forced some factories to close temporarily, industry groups said.

Steve Scheffles, a wheat farmer who serves as president of the Montana Grain Growers Association, says about 40 percent of his expenses go to buying fertilizer. If prices continue to rise, the outlook could become "dire," he says.

Rising fertilizer costs, along with extreme weather in Montana last year, have led Sheffles to the conclusion that "we're not going to be able to grow our crops and make money off of it."

Scheffles highlights a specific example of his increased spending since the start of the Iran war.

"We just planted the seed this fall and the cost of the basic fertilizer, which is high in potassium, was less than $1,000 a ton," he says. Last year, it was $600 per ton.

Rising fertilizer costs are a major concern because crops such as corn and wheat rely heavily on nitrogen fertilizer. Natural gas is key in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea and anhydrous ammonia. The export of liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf countries has been severely disrupted due to the war, and shipping disruptions continue.

Natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz were effectively halted by August, while exports of other chemical fertilizer products remained "scattered and lackluster" during the month, according to data released last month.

In April, 94 percent of farmers who responded to a Farmer and Rancher Policy Sentiment survey said the Iran war had affected their business by increasing fertilizer costs, energy costs, or both. While the survey comes amid a sharp rise in fertilizer prices worldwide from April to June, concerns remain.

Anhydrous ammonia prices in late September were up 9.3 percent from late February, before the war began. According to the data of the analytical company DTN, the price of urea has increased by 7.9% for the same period.

In the United States, diesel prices hit an all-time high last month, hitting a national average of more than $6.52 a gallon on Sept. 22, according to the American Automobile Association.

Trump signed an executive order last week to waive off-road requirements for a certain type of tax-exempt diesel fuel used primarily by the agricultural industry. The White House said temporarily allowing the use of red diesel on highways would "put money directly back into the pockets of America's farmers, truckers and workers." While it may help reduce costs associated with transporting harvested produce, Rendell says it "will not be a solution to our farm economy problems."

A few days later, the president also announced that Russia had agreed to supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the US and global markets.

Before these efforts, Trump raised the possibility of banning diesel exports. But he rejected the idea on Oct. 2 as the G7 pledged to coordinate the release of 100 million barrels of diesel alongside other reserves through the International Energy Agency (IEA) in an effort to stabilize world energy markets.

Meanwhile, farmers continue to struggle with rising prices.

"Diesel directly affects farm production costs for farm operations, planting, harvesting, and for inbound and outbound transportation." "The impact [when prices rise] is very immediate," Peele says.

Randle is already feeling the impact. He explains that he had diesel delivered to his farm last month that cost him more than $5 a gallon.

"I know in a lot of the world, that's probably not ridiculous, but it is ridiculous for farm diesel that's taxed in the U.S. at a lower rate," he says. Anytime it goes above $4 it gets painful and now we're over $5.

Fuel is a real pain point for everyone. "As long as the war continues, there really won't be any significant help available." He adds.