Safir Arjan Power Ranking: With House Fall, Senate Remains in Play

Democrats' general lead exceeds the 2018 blue wave and points the House forecast toward a potential Democratic majority of 237 seats.

As Democrats try to flip the Senate seat, Trump travels to Texas

There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year's races.

The first is the president's approval rating, which is now lower than either Donald Trump's first term in 2018 or Joe Biden's 2022 term.

The second is the overall Democratic lead, which is larger and more durable than the 2018 "blue wave" election, and much larger than the GOP lead in 2022.

Combined with the improved quality of Democratic candidates and Republican redistricting efforts that may fall short of expectations, the House will likely be out of reach for Republicans this year.

Republicans face wild midterm headwinds. Six forces can help them defy history.

Then there's a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in the game all the way to the finish line.

In Trump's first term, Republicans won two Senate seats despite a bleak national environment. Four years ago, as inflation rose, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their vote.

12 races as Democrats turn their eyes on the Senate battleground

Democrats have a long way to go to win 51 seats on election night. Republicans are pouring money into six swing states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven't been very effective.

However, Republican paths to 50 are widening. That's plus a big update to the House forecast, in this week's edition of the Power Rankings.

House of Representatives: Democrats will take control with 237 seats

The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the parliament throughout the year. Now, with another 20 races swinging to the left, the forecast shows Democrats taking control.

The blue wave looks real until you look a little closer

Democrats have a lead of at least 219 seats, while Republicans need to hold at least 198 seats. There are 18 throws on the board.

On a good night for Democrats, the party would have about 237 seats, or 22 seats from its current position. This is because the seats up for grabs fell mainly in the direction of one party in previous elections.

(A "great night" for Democrats, which would also see the party pick up some pure R seats, would mean a Democratic majority of 249.)

If the tossed seats go the other way, the GOP could make life difficult for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party finish with about 216 seats. That's two votes short of a majority, but leaves Democrats with just two votes in the House.

In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the Squad of years past, could unite to exert political pressure on the next speaker of the House of Representatives. This group is about to get bigger thanks to decisive victories by democratic socialists like Darialisa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdes.

Some of the changes this week are the product of polls. The overall Democratic lead has pushed areas like Kentucky's 6th District (Lexington and suburbs) and Texas' 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.

Party strength also plays a role in statewide races, especially in Iowa (Districts 1 and 3, which include the state's largest cities) and in Pennsylvania (three districts shifted left, thanks in part to Gov. Josh Shapiro's coattails).

Other changes are the result of Republican groups shifting resources elsewhere, such as New York's 19th district. Rep. Josh Riley, a Democrat, lost the race by less than 5,000 votes four years ago, but is headed for a Solid D as the GOP pours its money into more races.

A more surprising issue is also emerging: Republicans are having trouble with rural voters.

New York's 21st District, located above Albany, includes some of the state's most rural areas. Those voters gave Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. Polls last week showed the Democratic nominee leading the Republicans by four points, 46 to 42 percent.

Democrats see new opportunities to flip red states — but the state's $400 million spending advantage could derail their plans.

Maine's 2nd District, which voted for President Trump three times in a row — most recently by nine points — is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden retired. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for Republicans. The new poll has Democrats at 51 percent and Republicans at 45 percent.

Even Virginia's 5th District, which stretches across the South Side and is home to two-thirds of the rural population, is a six-point race in recent polls (45%-51% with Republicans ahead). Tom Perrillo, a Democrat, was recently endorsed by Assemblywoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Gasoline, diesel and food prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they're feeling the pinch and blaming Republicans for it.

For example, Iowa experienced the fourth highest gas price increase in the country. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. GOP candidates have proven difficult to take on.

New York's 21st District goes from Solid R to Possible R. (Virginia's 5th and 2nd Maine districts remain Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.)

Sena: Michelle Tafoya plays offense at Minnesota

The Senate is still tied with 47 Democrats and Republicans. A six throw will most likely determine control.

If Democrats pick up all six states, the party would have a two-seat majority, for a total of 53 seats. They will only do so by keeping the same six states.

Launches are largely locked into the summer. There has been much more movement in the "skinny" categories (outside Kansas, Georgia and North Carolina). All in all, you can think of these as election night battlegrounds

This week, a ninth state joined the list: Minnesota.

The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans hired former NFL reporter Michelle Tafoya. He has deftly channeled his efforts into politics, focusing on the fraud, crime, and cultural issues that drive GOP voters.

He also has a favorable matchup against Minnesota Governor Peggy Flanagan. It's unclear whether Flanagan's progressive politics or his proximity to the fraud issue will turn off voters. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.

A new Gold Standard poll shows 47 percent of likely voters support Flanagan, compared to 43 percent for Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.

Republicans are solidly united behind Tafoya, while nine in ten Democrats say they would support Flanagan's proposal. Independents are much less satisfied: 38 percent support Tafoya, 32 percent support Flanagan, and 29 percent are undecided.

Minnesota's voter profile and election history show left-of-center voters in the "independent" column. They may waver on Flanagan now, then turn out to vote for him on Election Day.