US-Iran Deadlock: What Are Trump's Next Military Options?

Trump Rules Out Strikes Before Midterm Elections; Analysts Weigh What He Could Do Next and at What Cost

Donald Trump, the President of the United States of America, announced on the Truth Social social network that he will not attack Iran before the November 3rd mid-term elections.

But he also said at the Republican convention in September that the conflict "will end immediately after the election" and that the US military has sent more troops to the region in recent weeks.

Since the control of the Strait of Hormuz is still the main focus of the Iran-US conflict, what military options do Trump have left and what will be the cost of each?

Al Jazeera spoke to military analysts to learn more:

The United States and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, and in the following months, Iran launched attacks against American military assets and other infrastructure in the Persian Gulf states and Jordan.

Iran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carried at least 20 percent of the world's pre-war supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), throwing global energy markets into chaos. Crude oil prices - the global benchmark - rose from around $72 a barrel a day before the war to a high of nearly $120 a barrel earlier this year. On Thursday, it traded around $104.

A cease-fire agreement collapsed in June over control of the strait, and Washington continues a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports while Iran continues to attack ships trying to pass through. Indirect talks through Pakistan and Qatar — with various proposals being exchanged on each side — continue, but Trump rejected Iran's latest offer to reopen the strait last month.

Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University in the UK and a former senior Royal Air Force officer who served in Iraq, told Al Jazeera that the United States "has a huge military capability that Iran cannot match," but it has not achieved the results Washington wants.

What forces does America currently have in the Middle East?

At least three carrier strike groups are in the Persian Gulf or on their way to it.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, with about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, is on its way to the Middle East to join its carriers.

The United States also maintains an array of military assets and approximately 50,000 troops at various bases in Middle Eastern countries.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and maritime escorts for commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is a status quo that could continue. Patrick Bury, a senior associate professor at the University of Bath and a former NATO analyst, told Al Jazeera that this was the most likely way.

Before the start of the war, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial ships a day, carrying an average of 17.1 million barrels of oil. This fell when the gorge was closed in March.

In recent weeks, with the help of a US Navy escort, the flow of Persian Gulf oil from Hormuz - excluding Iran - has recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, according to marine tracking firm Kpler. However, with the recent escalation of Iranian attacks on ships in the strait, this situation has reversed again. According to Kepler, only 2.9 million barrels of oil were shipped by waterway on Oct. 11, the lowest level for the month.

Washington is trying to maintain patrols and surveillance on the southwest side of the strait, "enough to give ships some sort of protection to get out," Bury said. Drones are increasingly doing the job of grunting information and carrying out strikes, which is cheaper than keeping aircraft on long sorties. "I mean, it's been somewhat effective," he said, adding that high oil prices and crew bonuses mean "people are willing to take a little risk."

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) recorded 15 attacks on ships between 6 and 14 October. Buri said that Iran is well prepared and pointed to the "asymmetry of costs". He explained: "Geographically, Iran still has a "kind of easier starting point".

Trump has said the bombing may increase after the election, but has not provided specifics.

However, if the situation escalates, Bury said he expects "more attacks in relatively limited packages" against targets on Iran's coastline and further inside the country.

Ashraf said that a new campaign "could actually be much less successful than previous ones this year, because Iran has adapted." They have less, but they can hide them better,” he said of its weapons.

The costs would also be high for the United States, which has already depleted much of its stockpile of very expensive missile defense systems.

He said that any relatively cheap Iranian drone or missile could force the US to fire "a $1 million or more interceptor" and that "the US would run out of missiles to defend itself."

In addition, the United States has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran during the war. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), it may take until the end of 2030 to fully recover its pre-war stock.

Bury said it would take "three to four years" for key munitions to return to pre-war levels. "The problem is that it takes a long time to solve that problem, even when you press Go with money."

Tehran has also promised to respond strongly. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Parliament, announced last month that the era of "proportionate answers" is over.

Ashraf said that renewed attacks may also cost Washington access to some bases in the Persian Gulf.

The recent retaliatory measures have targeted Iran, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain and ignored other Persian Gulf countries that Ashraf said may have reached an understanding with Tehran and stay away from the conflict.

Can US ground operations against Iran be an option?

One target could be Kharg Island, 26 km off the coast of Iran, which handles about 90% of Iran's exports.

Ashraf said U.S. forces could launch a limited attack, possibly using electronic warfare to blind Iran's defenses.

But Iran will attack the island itself after that. "They don't need a lot of information to target when they know the island is occupied by American forces," he said. And there is little appetite for casualties in a war that is currently very unpopular."

He also warned that Iran could strike in return for oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, concluding that seizing Kharg Island would be "the most irrational of decisions."

Is a full-scale American attack on Iran possible?

Trump has largely ruled out a ground attack, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March that ground forces were not needed to achieve the administration's goals.

"I don't think they will anyway," Bury said.

The war is deeply disliked by the American people, and Trump faces midterm elections in a few weeks.

According to the Pew Research Center, about 65% of Americans disapprove of the Trump administration.

Bury argued that the bigger question is whether the United States can rebuild its military power in a short period of time. Can America rebuild it as a military power in the next few years? he said

He added that the task will be longer than the Trump era, because "the next president will have to do the same thing anyway."

Ashraf warned that the longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of unrest across the region, arguing that "we must not separate military options from the enormous potential for political instability."