Crisis in Western Countries Does Not Necessarily Mean Decline
The fundamental question for Iran is what goal it pursues in participating and playing a role in global value chains: is the aim to increase the people's welfare and economic development, or to achieve dominance and expand regional influence?
Ambassador Arjan- Although the main speaker of the 147th meeting of the Baran Foundation was Abbas Akhundi, but the presence and cake of Seyed Mohammad Khatami's 83rd birthday and the criticism of the former president on a part of Akhundi's speech diverted the attention of the media from the text, and we ourselves published a note on the same topic (Khatami and Soroush: Not connected to liberalism).
However, one of the readers has requested that the text of that main speech be published. It is a correct point, and therefore the report related to this speech is quoted based on the report of the Insaf News website, because the website of the Baran Foundation had not yet put the full text on its page (until the text was edited):
In his speech, Abbas Akhundi focused on three main axes: understanding global developments and observing power changes in the world, examining the concept of security and its relationship with development, and finally, explaining the generalities and strategies of development in Iran.
To describe the changes in the world order, he first mentioned the distribution of wealth and gross domestic product in the world economy. According to Akhundi, out of the world's gross domestic product of about 117 trillion dollars, nearly 30 trillion dollars, equivalent to about 27%, is allocated to the United States. He also estimated the share of Europe and China at around $19 trillion each, noting that the rest of global production is distributed among other economies.
Emphasizing the necessity of knowing the economic poles of the world, Akhundi considered the change in American behavior in recent decades as one of the important developments in the international order. According to him, in the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became a unipolar power; But gradually, especially during the era of Donald Trump, he distanced himself from some values of the liberal order that he himself contributed to its formation.
He described this process as America's gradual return to a pattern of power relations that is more similar to the logic of dominance and power relations in the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries. However, according to Akhundi, such a model could not continue without challenges; Because China entered the field as an economic power and reached the second place in the world economy.
Akhundi further pointed out the economic growth of China and its difference with the United States and said that while the economic growth rate of the United States is estimated to be around 2%, China's growth is around 4% and India's growth is in the range of 5-6%. He considered India's economic growth to be one of the developments that has been neglected in the analysis of the future of global power distribution.
According to him, with the continuation of this trend, the economic balance of the world may be significantly different from the current situation in the coming years. Some forecasts suggest 2035 and others 2045 or 2050 for China's economy to overtake the US; However, the exact timing of this change depends on future economic trends.
Akhundi emphasized that the issue is not only the growth of the gross domestic product of countries, but also the change in the geography of economic power. According to him, if in the past the West was the main driving force of the world economy, in the next decade or two, two important Asian powers, namely China and India, will play a stronger role in the world economy. Therefore, the West cannot be considered the only center of economic power in the world.
In the same context, he warned that using the concept of "American decline" without a detailed analysis of global developments could lead to wrong perceptions. Referring to the historical crises of the West, including the crises related to the liberal system during the First and Second World Wars, as well as the economic crises of the 1980s and 2007, Akhundi emphasized that the Western countries facing crises and challenges does not necessarily mean their definitive decline.
According to him, the West has faced crises at different historical times, but it has been able to continue its existence by changing economic and social policies and mechanisms. Among these developments was the formation and expansion of the welfare state in the face of the challenges caused by Marxism. Therefore, to analyze the future of global powers, a distinction must be made between the existence of crisis and structural decline.
global value chains; From competition for dominance to providing welfare
Another part of Akhundi's speech was devoted to global value chains and their place in the competition between great powers.
Referring to America's positions on areas like Greenland and the country's pressures on countries like Cuba and Venezuela, he analyzed these developments in the context of power competition and efforts to maintain or expand economic and political influence.
Akhundi further introduced the economic chain from China to Africa as one of the important global value chains and emphasized the need to recognize the place of these chains in international relations.
According to him, the main issue for Iran is to determine what purpose it pursues from being present and playing a role in global value chains: is the goal to increase the welfare of the people and the economic development of the country or to achieve dominance and expand regional influence?
He emphasized that determining the goal is important before choosing a strategy. If an important part of the world's economic value is concentrated in a chain, it is natural that the great powers are sensitive to its security and continuity. Therefore, one should ask whether Iran alone is capable of threatening such a chain and whether other powers that benefit from its activity will remain indifferent to its long-term insecurity?
Referring to the volume of exchanges between China and Africa, which was mentioned in the notes of the speech as about 2.5 trillion dollars, Akhundi raised the question whether China or even India can be indifferent to the long-term insecurity of such a path?
In this framework, he did not simply summarize power in the ability to create threats or disrupt the existing order, but emphasized the ability to protect global value chains and use their capacity to increase prosperity. From his point of view, the appropriate strategy for Iran should be based on utilizing the capacities of the global economy in order to develop and secure national interests, instead of focusing only on creating disruption.
Global security and the need to review regional strategies
In another part of his speech, Akhundi mentioned the world's military and security expenses. According to the figures he presented in the speech, the annual costs of security and militarism in the world are about 2.9 trillion dollars. Of this amount, the share of America was about 33%, China 12%, Russia 6.6%, Germany 3.9% and India 3.2%.
The presentation of these figures in Akhundi's speech was in the context of the discussion about the relationship between economic power, military power and the security of global value chains. From this point of view, great powers are not only important because they have economic resources, but their ability to protect their interests and economic paths is also effective in shaping the world security order.
He further emphasized the need to overcome the pattern of regional hegemony and try to become the dominant power in the region, and considered moving towards cooperative security with the countries of the region as a necessary strategy.
According to Akhundi, countries' perception of global security has changed and it is no longer possible to solve security issues by simply relying on traditional coalition building models. Referring to examples of regional and international alliances, including the security cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, as well as NATO in the face of Russia, he questioned the performance of these arrangements in providing the expected goals.
From his point of view, these developments show that security in today's world requires a more accurate understanding of the mutual interests of countries and how to cooperate between them. In such a situation, Iran's security strategy should also be revised according to the evolution of global power, the country's economic position and the necessity of cooperation with its neighbors.
In general, the axes raised in Abbas Akhundi's speech were focused on the fact that recognizing the changes in the world order, distinguishing between crisis and the decline of powers, setting a clear goal to participate in the global economy and moving from dominance-based competition to cooperative security are among the requirements of formulating a development strategy and securing Iran's national interests.