night patrol of American planes over the Persian Gulf; America seeks to continue the "neither war nor peace" situation
According to radar data and field reports, the number of active military aircraft in the sky has increased from 90 to more than 105, and the share of refueling planes - which are the pulse of long-range operations - has increased significantly.
Every night, the sky of the Persian Gulf turns into a three-dimensional and expensive chess board; A scene where all the pieces of a devastating war are arranged, but no one dares to issue the first move order. Dozens of giant American refueling planes, squadrons of advanced "F-15" and "F-35" fighters, and a number of British Typhoon planes stationed at bases in Qatar and Kuwait are constantly patrolling the waters of the region. According to radar data and field reports, the number of active military aircraft in the sky has increased from 90 to more than 105, and the share of refueling planes - which are the pulse of long-range operations - has increased significantly. But when the sun rises, neither a target is bombed in Iran nor a war begins. This "aggressive arrangement without firing" poses a vital and strategic question to every Iranian observer: why is this expensive war machine kept on and why is its handbrake still on?
The main idea of this note is to outline a bitter geopolitical reality: the current tension in the Middle East is the product of a calculation error in the American bureaucracy; Where Washington thinks it can contain Iran with the tool of "tension management", unaware that this game may turn into an uncontrollable economic and security disaster for the whole world at any moment. To solve this puzzle, we need to look at Washington's flawed calculations. America and its allies are paying the heaviest economic price for maintaining this inflammatory atmosphere, from skyrocketing ship insurance premiums to the rapid erosion of weapons stockpiles. But why don't they retreat? The answer lies in maintaining superpower status. The White House believes that turning off the engine of this war machine without making a tangible concession from Tehran is synonymous with sending a message of weakness to Beijing and Moscow and the collapse of the hegemony of American deterrence in the world.
In addition, the other side of the coin smells of money and business. Western arms industries are reaping astronomical profits from this continuous terrorization. The more Arab capitals feel insecure, the longer the line to buy defense systems. In the meantime, the polarized atmosphere in the elections before the US Congress has also locked any diplomatic flexibility; So that the return from the path of tension entails a much higher cost for the American Republicans than its continuation. But in this complex plot, there is a dangerous actor who sees war not as a threat, but as a means of life. For Binyamin Netanyahu and his extreme cabinet, directly dragging the US into a conflict with Iran is a sweet dream that frees his political existence from corruption cases and preserves his shaky coalition.
Against this war-seeking frenzy, perhaps the only temporary brake is electoral concerns in Washington. Donald Trump and even his Democratic rivals know very well that any oil shock and increase in gasoline prices caused by the war in the Persian Gulf will reduce the chances of winning the elections to zero. Therefore, the White House may temporarily agree to a kind of expedient truce; Not because of the belief in peace, but simply to pass the elections; But this brake is very fragile and time-consuming. If these political brakes fail, the Middle East will enter the tunnel of terror that the economic media has already drawn its scenario. If Tel Aviv acts foolishly with Washington's green light, Iran and the resistance front will give an asymmetric and paralyzing response against American bases and energy arteries in the region.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the jump in the price of oil to over $200 will put the Western economy into a coma and China will easily fill the void of American hegemony in the world. The countries that host American bases in the Persian Gulf are also turning from a pole of wealth into a center of destruction. In the meantime, although Iran will also suffer infrastructural damage, the geographical extent of Iran as well as its historical memory have proven that the external threat has always been a powerful catalyst, leading to national cohesion and strengthening the internal structure of the country. However, we should not stop at the level of the possibility of war. A look at the four decades of American strategy towards Iran - from blind sanctions to the unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA and the assassination of Sardar Soleimani and then the war - shows that Washington's behavior pattern has never been based on problem solving. America sees Iran not as a potential partner, but as an undesirable entity that simply needs to be contained to a tolerable level. Changing the tenants of the White House only changes the decor and tactics of this strategy, not its ultimate goal.
As a result, the most likely scenario for the coming months is neither an apocalyptic war nor a lasting peace, but a continuation of the same corrosive pattern of "no war, no peace". The way out of this dangerous deadlock for Tehran is not to change the tone in Washington. The key to solving this crisis is in the hands of the region itself: strategic reliance on endogenous national capacities and bold activation of neighborhood diplomacy networks. Before the West's driverless car sparks the Middle East's powder keg, diplomacy must open alternative paths; Tomorrow, when the flames die down, it will be too late to put out the fire."