DRC: Kabila's move to M23 raises questions about peace

Joseph Kabila, the former president of the People's Republic of Congo, has joined a new political-military front that brings together the Rwanda-backed AFC/M23 coalition. Analysts say this could change the opposition to President Felix Shishkedi.

What does Kabila's new armed coalition mean for the Congolese conflict?

13/10/2026 October 13, 2026 Joseph Kabila, the former president of the People's Republic of Congo, has joined a new political-military front that brings together the Rwanda-backed AFC/M23 coalition. Analysts say this could change the opposition to President Felix Shishkedi.

Joseph Kabila's decision to lead a new politico-military movement, the Front for the Reconstruction of the Nation (FRN), puts the former president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in even more direct conflict with the government of President Felix Shiskedi. Kabila announced the FRN on October 12 at his residence in Goma, eastern DRC, where he was joined by leaders of the AFC/M23 rebel movements.

Claude Ibalanki, adviser to the FRN coalition, said the group would unite opposition forces, including figures linked to the AFC/M23 movement. The new structure replaces the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which was allied with the M23 rebellion. Its leadership includes former AFC leader Cornel Nanga and M23 political leader Bertrand Bisimwa. Soltani Makenga, one of M23's top military commanders, was also assigned a senior role in the new organization.

The announcement comes as diplomatic initiatives seek to end the conflict between Congolese government forces and rebels.

Congolese authorities have accused Kabila of supporting the rebels, charges he has denied. On September 30, 2025, a military court sentenced him to death in absentia after convicting him of treason, war crimes and other crimes related to the conflict in eastern Congo. Kabila has dismissed the case as politically motivated.

Adolph Amisi Makutano, an official of the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), criticized the former president for playing a more public role.

"It was a lack of courage that made this gentleman drag his feet. They held several meetings and today they are pressuring him to come forward. But this is a shame for the DRC," Makutano said.

Eastern DRC has experienced decades of conflict involving armed groups, competition over territory and mineral resources, and tension with neighboring countries.

The aftermath of Rwanda's 1994 genocide against the Tutsi contributed to successive regional conflicts, as armed groups and refugees crossed borders and neighboring countries became embroiled in Congolese civil wars.

7 Reasons Why Eastern DR Congo Is Still Stuck In Conflict

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M23 takes its name from the March 23, 2009 peace agreement. The movement says the Congolese government has failed to fulfill its commitments to integrate its fighters and protect Congo's Tutsi minority.

Kinshasa has accused the United Nations (UN) and Western Rwandan governments of supporting M23 and influencing its operations. Rwanda denies supporting the rebellion and points to security threats posed by armed groups operating in Congo. In 2025, M23 captured Goma and Bukavu, two major cities in eastern Congo. The country's territorial gains have weakened government control in parts of the region, displaced civilians and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.

Kabila's leadership of the new front raises the question of whether he intends to consolidate opposition to Shiskdi, strengthen the political leadership of the insurgency, or pursue both.

Alex Vines, director of the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, sees the move as proof that Kabila is politically ambitious. "This shows that Kabila's political ambition is alive and he is ready to challenge Shiskedi," Wiens told DW.

Why have tensions increased in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

Timo Rojan, head of the Kinshasa office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, cautioned against gauging Kabila's potential support based on ethnic identity alone. Economic performance and political dynamics in Kabila's home region of Katanga are also linked, he told DW.

The new front could more clearly give the movement political leadership, but it remains unclear whether the reorganization will expand its domestic support or change its negotiating position. Conflict analyst Clifton Chifo told Deutsche Welle that the coalition does not rule out a negotiated settlement, but it could make it more difficult to reach a lasting agreement.

Kabila's alliance with M23 does not make peace impossible, Chifu told DW.

For Chifuwe, lasting peace requires more than the cessation of hostilities. It also depends on credible security arrangements, restoration of state authority, humanitarian access and conditions that allow refugees to return safely. The new FRN coalition also raises questions for mediators about whether existing peace frameworks can accommodate political realignment and whether conflicting parties can ensure compliance with any agreement.

As this new development unfolds, the main question for civilians in eastern Congo is whether a change in leadership will open a path to resolution or make it more difficult to resolve a complex conflict.

Wendy Bashi, Saleh Mwanamilungo, and Jean Noel contributed to this article with Muzzi

Kathy Short Reporter for DW Africa covering news and hard features on the AfricaLink podcast.