War of Wagers in the Strait of Hormuz: From Failed Memorandum to Military Threats

Mohsen Rezaei, rejecting Washington's latest response, called it insufficient and stressed that Tehran's diplomacy has changed and will not return to previous conditions. Although diplomatic channels through Doha remain active, both sides' insistence that the other take the first step has stalled the path to reopening the strategic waterway […]

Rejecting Washington's latest response, Mohsen Rezaei called this response "inadequate" and emphasized that Tehran's diplomacy has changed and will not return to the past.

Although the diplomatic channels through Doha remain intact, the insistence of both sides on the other side taking the first step has completely blocked the way to reopen the strategic waterway of Hormuz.

The continuation of attacks on oil tankers and the failure to reach a comprehensive agreement on shipping and nuclear issues continue to keep the global oil market and the economies of extra-regional countries under pressure.

Iran has called Washington's latest response regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz "inadequate". Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday that America has agreed to some of Iran's seven conditions, but we consider this country's response insufficient. Iran's diplomacy has changed and we will not return to the previous situation.

These statements put the future of Iran's proposal for the Strait of Hormuz in an aura of uncertainty. It also deepens the impasse that has blocked the strategic path of energy since February. Before the war, almost a fifth of the world's oil and liquid natural gas passed through this strait.

The root of the conflict and failure of the June memorandum

The current crisis began on February 28 with the attack of the United States and Israel on Iran. Then, Tehran responded to this attack with missiles and drones and practically closed the Strait of Hormuz. Finally, Washington imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. This blockage of the strait has affected the global economy and fuel prices have increased.

Of course, the two sides signed the "Islamabad Memorandum" in June. The purpose of this memorandum was to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear negotiations. But Donald Trump announced the end of the agreement in July.

Details of Iran's seven-day plan and negotiation gaps

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi unveiled this plan on September 25 at the United Nations General Assembly, and Qatar presented it to Washington. Under the plan, the United States would take the agreed steps in the first four or five days. Then Iran reopens the strait on the sixth day. Negotiations on the final deal, including Iran's nuclear program, will begin on the seventh.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Majlis and Iran's chief negotiator, later presented these steps as seven conditions. Reports suggest that Tehran is seeking an end to the US naval blockade, an oil export ban and the release of frozen assets. Also, Tehran wants Washington to cancel all sanctions and stop attacks on Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah.

In contrast, Trump publicly rejected the plan on September 26. He has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. However, Qatari mediators delivered the official US response to Araghchi on September 29. An official familiar with the negotiations said the disagreement was about the order of the steps, not the steps themselves.

The reason is that this answer is considered insufficient by Iran

According to experts, there are three major gaps in this process, which are:

Timing: Iran wants Washington to end the blockade before reopening the strait, freeing the sale of oil and blocked assets. But Washington demands nuclear concessions as the first step.

Nuclear case: Ismail Baqaei, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the proposals of the United States are largely a repetition of Washington's previous nuclear demands. Tehran is against stopping domestic enrichment or transferring its uranium reserves abroad.

The challenge of trust: Iran's President Masoud Mezikian, referring to airstrikes during previous negotiations, said that Iran no longer trusts negotiations with Washington.

Washington's strategy and the future of tensions

Of course, Washington considers this plan unilateral. UN envoy Mike Waltz said Iran had "requested everything in advance". US officials also argue that Iran violated the June agreement by attacking merchant ships. In fact, Washington is seeking a single package rather than separate agreements on shipping and nuclear issues. Also, this country believes that it has the upper hand, so that an American official has claimed that Trump holds all the cards in the negotiations.

On the other hand, Mohsen Rezaei emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and negotiations will not start unless Washington accepts Iran's conditions. He also warned that regional data cables and artificial intelligence facilities could be targeted if fighting resumes.

Nevertheless, the tension in the Strait of Hormuz continues and several more oil tankers were attacked in recent days. Of course, diplomatic channels are still open and Abbas Araghchi emphasized that the exchange of messages through mediators continues. According to experts, until one of the parties does not take the first step, this strategic waterway will remain largely closed, which will intensify the pressure on the global price of fuel and the economy of many countries.