War in the shadow of elections Will Netanyahu and Trump attack Iran again?

From the lead of Netanyahu's rival in the election polls to the military alert in the region, all signs have raised the possibility of renewed attacks on Iran on the eve of the Israeli and American elections.

Political group: The war with Iran may once again become one of the most important variables in the Israeli elections. But this time, the time of its occurrence, the possible goals and the political consequences of the war are also important. The reports published by the American and Israeli media indicate that military options are being discussed in Washington and Tel Aviv. While Benjamin Netanyahu's statements show that he does not consider the pre-election attack to benefit Israel, at least on the surface.

These developments take place in a situation where the Israeli parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on November 5 and the American mid-term elections will be held on November 13. In this way, the decision to resume the war could affect both Netanyahu's political future and Donald Trump's domestic calculations. However, it is not yet clear whether a decision has been taken to attack or not.

From the report of the possibility of an attack to Netanyahu's public retreat

According to the Axios report, last week, Netanyahu discussed with Trump the possibility of resuming military attacks against Iran. The American and Israeli sources cited by this media have claimed that the Prime Minister of Israel has expressed his concern about Iran's attempt to rebuild its nuclear capacity and has discussed the issue of a renewed attack with the American President several times.

Trump has told Netanyahu to prepare for such a possibility, but has not made a firm commitment to issue an attack order. On the other hand, the White House has also announced that the US President does not intend to issue an order to attack Iran before the mid-term elections.

In his latest statement, Netanyahu told the Israel Army Radio that a possible Israeli or American attack on Iran in the coming days and before the elections is not in Israel's interest in the current situation. These statements are different from the narrative of the sources who had previously announced his desire to attack before the elections.

What has been published so far about the details of the call between Trump and Netanyahu is based on the report of anonymous sources and seems very contradictory. But from these reports, we can conclude that the military option was seriously considered and there was more disagreement about its timing.

Can war change Israel's equation?

Netanyahu's position in the election race is fragile. Recent polls show that Yashar's party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of the Israeli army's general staff, is ahead of Netanyahu's Likud party in many estimates. According to Kan network survey, Yashar is predicted to win 23 seats and Likud 21 seats. However, the results of other surveys have differences.

In such a situation, war or the threat of war may have two opposite consequences for Netanyahu. On the one hand, the escalation of tension can direct the public's attention to security issues and the government's military experience, and strengthen the notion that a stable government is needed in critical situations. On the other hand, the resumption of war could raise concerns about the human and economic costs, the prolongation of conflicts, and the government's inability to provide sustainable security.

Some American officials, according to media reports, believe that Netanyahu is linking his political power with the position of prime minister during the war. This means that he has extended his political survival in the past years with war. Another point is that the Chief of General Staff of the Israeli Army has warned about the possibility of escalation of tensions, but according to the explanation of the military reporter of Channel 13, this warning is not based on definitive information about the imminent attack and can reflect a general assessment of the sensitivity of the two weeks ahead.

Trump's attempt to win without war

For Trump, the decision about Iran is not a military issue. According to a CNN report, citing an informed source, the American president is looking to announce some kind of victory to the public opinion of this country, without seriously blocking the path of diplomacy with Iran. In this framework, a limited attack or a military action aimed at increasing pressure may be considered a way out of the crisis from the eyes of American decision makers.

On the one hand, Trump has said that he will announce the decision about Iran "soon" and on the other hand, according to published reports, he ruled out sending ground forces to invade Iran. These two positions show that the discussed options, at least in the existing media narrative, focus more on airstrikes and military pressure than ground attack. It is not clear what changes there are in the air attacks compared to the 40-day war, so that the US expects a different result from them.

There is no complete consensus in the American government about the continuation of the war. Some military officials support planning to resume operations, but parts of Trump's cabinet and advisers consider it less expensive and more effective to continue economic and political pressure on Tehran. Approaching midterm elections could also increase the political cost of a new war for the White House.

As a result, Trump faces a difficult choice. Intensifying operations to show power, or maintaining pressure and keeping diplomacy open. A new attack may bring a short-term gain, but it will trigger a new round of conflict, all of whose consequences cannot be foreseen.

At the same time as the political developments, the CNN report informs about the formulation of new operational plans of the American army for a possible attack on Iran. According to this report, Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure are among the targets that are considered in the military options. Also, the GBU-43/B heavy bomb, known as the "Mother of All Bombs" or MOAB, is among the proposed options.

This conventional guided bomb weighs about 9.8 tons and is designed to destroy large targets on the ground.

On the other hand, reports indicate an increase in concern among Iranian officials about the possibility of a resumption of conflicts. According to several regional diplomats, there is concern that the current period of relative calm will be short and military confrontation will resume in the future.

Also, in the past days, Iranian missile tests have also been observed in some areas. Earlier, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council also said that in case of another attack, America will face "big surprises" and "new fronts".

All signs and variables suggest that the next two weeks will be very decisive. Trump and Netanyahu may be trying to surprise Iran again. But the difference is that this time the elections in America and Israel are very important and the war with Iran will have a direct effect on the result.