US Inflation Shock Hits Global Markets | Stocks Plunge, Gold Slides and Interest Rate Outlook Shifts
Higher-than-expected US inflation triggered a wave of selling in global markets. Tech stocks plunged, gold and bitcoin fell back, and the likelihood of a rate hike rose. However, in Thursday's trading, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields helped gold recover, and oil fell despite escalating Middle East tensions. Investors are now awaiting fresh US producer and retail inflation data.
world economy; Anahita Mohib Ali; The report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the consumer price index increased by 0.6% in September 2026 compared to the previous month; The figure was in line with the market forecast. However, annual inflation exceeded the estimate of 3.6% and reached 3.7%.
Gold returned to above $4150 after falling
Gold fell from the range of 4152 dollars to about 4115 dollars in the initial reaction to the release of inflation statistics. The increase in the possibility of interest rate growth and the strengthening of the dollar reduced the attractiveness of this precious metal; Because unlike bonds with interest, gold does not generate periodic income.
But in Thursday's trading, the direction of the market changed. According to Reuters, spot gold rose 1.2 percent to $4,156.11 by 9:17 GMT, and gold futures were up 1.7 percent at $4,177.80.
The retreat of the dollar and the decrease in the yield of American treasury bonds, especially the drop in the yield of 10-year bonds to the lowest level in the last three weeks, were the main factors of gold's return. Therefore, the decline after the release of inflation did not turn into a one-way downward trend; However, interest rate concerns remain.
How much did the probability of a Fed rate hike change?
The most important change after the publication of the inflation report was the increase in the probability of interest rate growth at the October 28 meeting of the Federal Reserve; However, this possibility was adjusted in the continuation of the transactions.
Based on this, the probability of interest rate increase was doubled at first, but it decreased to about 29% in the following transactions. This change shows that after the initial reaction, the market has also included the statements of the Federal Reserve officials and developments in bond yields in their calculations.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly spoke about the possibility of needing to raise interest rates further in the future, but did not confirm the need for action at the October meeting. Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman for banking supervision, also emphasized the possibility of waiting.
Wall Street under inflationary pressure; The Nasdaq fell nearly 2 percent
The US stock market posted its worst daily performance since late July in trading on Wednesday, October 14, following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data. Concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again weighed on stocks of technology companies and artificial intelligence players in particular.
The biggest selling pressure was directed at companies whose business development depends on heavy investment and financing. Oracle shares fell 8.8%, CoreWeave about 15% and Nebius about 10%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell 4.3 percent, ending its sixth consecutive session of decline.
On the other hand, Apple shares grew by 0.5% and the company's market value exceeded 5 trillion dollars for the first time at the end of trading; A sign that the selling pressure in the technology market is not equally distributed among all companies.
What do Thursday's futures say?
Selling pressure continued in pre-open Wall Street trading on Thursday, October 15. Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1.1% and SNDP 500 futures fell by 0.27%; While Dow Jones futures grew by 0.32%.
This divergence shows that investors' concerns are more focused on growth stocks and technology companies. At the same time, the market is waiting for the producer inflation statistics, retail sales and unemployment insurance claims of the United States; Data that could change interest rate expectations again.
Sales pressure was also transferred to Asian markets. In Thursday's trading, South Korea's Kospi fell about 5.6 percent in early reports, and Japan's Nikkei fell. Later reports indicated the intensification of the fall; So that Kospi fell by nearly 8% in one of the daily reports. Stocks of chip makers and artificial intelligence supply chains were at the center of this decline.
Why did oil become cheap despite the attacks in the Middle East?
In the oil market, contrary to the initial expectation of an increase in prices due to geopolitical tensions, Thursday's trading was accompanied by a drop. Brent oil fell 2.2% to $103.78 and West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% to $93.75 per barrel.
The main reason for this decrease was the reports about the possibility of easing the US restrictions on the oil tankers of the so-called "Shadow Fleet" of Russia. Such an action can increase the flexibility of transportation of oil and oil products and reduce the cost of cargo transportation.
However, supply risk has not gone away. Attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz continue, two commercial ships were damaged and sunk in separate incidents, and Ukraine resumed its attacks on Russian refineries. In the United States, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated a decrease of 11.1 million barrels of crude oil reserves in the week ending October 9; A decrease more than analysts expected.
dollars and bonds; Return from the initial reaction
After the release of inflation, the dollar index first increased and reached the highest level in the last 18 months. The yield of two-year bonds, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, increased on Wednesday. The yield of 30-year US bonds also reached 5.63% at one point.
But in Thursday's trading, the dollar gave back some of its gains. Reuters reported that the dollar index fell by around 0.5 percent at one point and the 10-year bond yield hit a three-week low.