Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 After Its Biggest Price Increase in Four Years

Bitcoin buyers tried to defend the $80,000 support after U.S. producer inflation in September exceeded expectations, delivering their biggest monthly gain since March 2022.

Bitcoin buyers tried to defend the $80,000 support after US producer inflation beat producer expectations in September for the biggest monthly gain since March 2022.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Thursday as US producer price index (PPI) data significantly beat expectations.

Bitcoin/USD fell to its lowest level since September 18, trading down as much as 1.8% on the day, before rebounding to around $81,000, TradingView data showed.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

September's PPI came in at 6.3%, 100 basis points above the forecast level, while core PPI rose to 5% versus expectations of 4.4%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

"September's increase is the biggest advance since a 1.7% increase in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 6.3% for the 12 months to September, the biggest 12-month increase since a 6.4% increase in December 2022," an official news release confirmed.

The numbers come a day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also beat estimates, sending crypto assets lower and riskier. Risky assets were already under pressure from concentrated technology selling in South Korea, where the KOSPI composite index fell 7.5% on Thursday.

Economist Mohammad Al-Arian described the PPI as "even more significant" than the CPI result. Elarian and others noted that U.S. bond yields are not rising because of rising inflation. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond fell nearly 3 percent at the time of writing, to its lowest level since Sept. 23.

One-day chart of US 10-year bond yields. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Robin Brooks, a former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, echoed earlier findings that yields have decoupled from US macro data as market priorities shift to managing the federal budget deficit.

Brooks compared the 30-day correlation between bullish data surprises and daily moves in the 10-year yield, showing that it fell from nearly 0.6 in early 2026 to just below zero by the end of August.

"This suggests that returns are decoupled from the data, and the obvious explanation for that is that markets are more focused on the deficit path, so they push up long-term returns regardless of what surprises they do," he summarized in a blog post last month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price action refocused two supportive trend lines: the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMA) at $76,144 and $78,459, respectively.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that BTC/USD could still retest both and maintain its overall uptrend.

Rekt Capital said in an X post: "A breakout below them in a breakout retest to find historical lows in early stage bull markets. But these breakouts come after the bullish crossover of these two EMAs, while Bitcoin is still ahead of the crossover."

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital

Bitcoin remained below the range between $82,500 and $82,800, a key support area favored in recent weeks.

Analyst Aksel Kibar said that Bitcoin's last weekly close of around $83,700 is a weak breakout.

"A weekly close inside the range could resume a broad consolidation between 60K-82.8K," he said.