Press Review: US-Russia Gas Deal Worries Europe as Putin Says There Is No Bombshell on Ukraine's Voting Day

Top Stories From Russian Press on Tuesday, October 10

Moscow, October 13. /TASS/. Europe seeks to destroy the Russian-American diesel contract. Moscow is ready to stop attacks on Ukraine on election day. And it seems that the United States and Iran cannot agree on de-escalation at sea. These stories topped the headlines of newspapers across Russia on Tuesday.

Experts told Izvestia that the EU will try to disrupt Russian fuel supplies to the United States and increase pressure on Moscow. The foreign ministers of EU member states approved the 22nd package of sanctions against Russia. However, the EU remains divided, with some countries planning to promote a more pragmatic approach to relations with Russia.

Political scientist Denis Denisov said the EU is not happy with the Russia-US fuel deal and will try to disrupt supplies. One thing he could do is send his leaders to a series of meetings with US President Donald Trump to convince him to abandon the deal, as they did after the Russia-US talks in Alaska. In addition, Europe has high hopes for the possible victory of the Democratic Party in the mid-term elections of the US Congress.

However, the EU is divided on how to deal with Russia as some member states want to talk to Moscow. St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeriomina emphasized that Bulgaria and Slovakia are seeking to preserve Russian energy supplies, which the European Union plans to cut off by next year. However, since Brussels will try to derail the Russia-US agreement, it will not allow EU members to achieve similar things. Agreement with Moscow, noted the political scientist.

At the same time, the Russian-American diesel deal has created a stir not only in Europe and Ukraine, but also in the US Congress. A group of seven bipartisan senators have asked Trump to stop importing Russian diesel.

Vadim Kozlov, head of the domestic policy department at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for US-Canadian Studies, said: "If Democrats win the midterm elections, the agreement could be overturned through a bill that would completely ban imports of Russian petroleum products, subject to the support of some Republicans." "A move to reverse course on the deal is now unlikely to garner enough support from lawmakers, as Trump is sure to cast it as an obstacle to congressional efforts to lower U.S. diesel prices," the expert concluded.

Russia is not ready to accept a 60-day ceasefire proposed by Volodymyr Zelensky, who has claimed that it would allow the holding of presidential elections in Ukraine. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that what he is willing to do is stop attacks on Ukraine on election day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. In the meantime, Moscow is still open to dialogue, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galozin told Izvestia.

Igor Markov, a former member of the country's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, said that some are clamoring for elections in Ukraine. And the reasons go beyond the change of government. According to Markov, some elites of the country already expect that the internal political struggle will intensify after the end of hostilities. He explained that this is when people are blamed for the decisions that have been made in the past few years, including major corruption offences.

Dmitry Solonikov, director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development, believes that elections in Ukraine can facilitate negotiations to resolve the crisis.

However, the position of the majority of EU countries, which continue to supply arms to Kiev and actually encourage it to prolong the conflict, has hindered the settlement efforts. In contrast, the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump is seeking to find a diplomatic way out of the crisis, even if Washington has not completely stopped supporting Kiev.

A change of president in Kyiv does not guarantee a change in Ukraine's approach to the conflict. Whoever succeeds Zelenskiy will have to consider the position of Brussels, while the EU seems to believe that continued confrontation is in its interests. It is noteworthy that European leaders prefer to ignore Moscow's direct statements that Russia has neither a plan nor a reason for an armed conflict with the European Union. In this framework, the Ukrainian leader remains merely a variable in the strategic equation of others.

The brief pause in strikes in the Persian Gulf was once again interrupted by attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. With talks stalled, US Vodomosti writes that Iran may enter another round of active hostilities after the US midterm elections.

Alexei York, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, doubts that the outcome of the election will significantly affect the position of the US president. The expert said: Congressional resolutions calling for an end to military operations are advisory in nature and cannot stop the White House in any way.

Ilya Vaskin, a junior researcher at the Center for Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics, noted: After the election, Trump will no longer be so concerned about how the American public views his foreign policy actions in the Middle East. On the other hand, the expert did not rule out the possibility that the Democrats could take control of Congress after the vote, which would make it much more difficult for the White House to conduct military operations.

York noted that, in terms of the prospect of an agreement, Washington and Tehran are very far apart in their positions on many issues, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and Iran sanctions. This expert on political issues added: The two sides have also lost their trust in each other, and this has caused none of the sides to accept anything, because America has repeatedly launched military operations against Iran in the midst of negotiations.

In the event of an incident, Yekuri Liamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategies and Technologies, warned that with the escalation of tension, the hostilities will probably enter a more destructive phase. This analyst said: The US military could carry out extensive attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, while Tehran could retaliate by targeting oil and gas facilities and other important economic sectors of US regional allies.

Saudi Arabia is in a difficult position amid its conflict with the Houthis. Izvestia notes that a Riyadh-led coalition had previously announced a major military operation against the movement, but Saudi Arabia has so far limited its involvement to targeted airstrikes, while it is Yemeni government forces that have entered the fray.

Kirill Semyonov, an expert on Middle East issues, believes that Saudi Arabia has no other choice but to start ground operations because the Houthis follow the policy of maximum pressure on Riyadh.

The Ansarullah Houthi movement openly describes itself as Tehran's main ally in the fight against America and Israel. Daniela Krylov, a researcher of the Middle East and Post-Soviet Collapse Department at the Scientific Information Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences emphasized: "To end the conflict, Riyadh should enter into direct talks with Iran about the division of spheres of influence in the region."

The Houthis' successful attacks on airports have prompted media reports that highlight the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia's air defenses. In 2017, Riyadh signed a memorandum of understanding to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems, but later abandoned the plan under pressure from the United States. Saudi Arabia finally gave in to Washington's demands and signed a separate contract to buy US-made THAAD missile defense systems.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes: Now, the United States has actually abandoned its strategic ally, because the Americans cannot provide enough interceptors for Riyadh. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia has turned to France, Britain, Egypt and Pakistan for more weapons. With the Strait of Hormuz still a dangerous route and US President Donald Trump's hands full ahead of November's midterm elections, Saudi Arabia is hastily seeking to form a regional coalition willing to fight the Houthis in Yemen without Washington's support. However, it will be Riyadh that bears the costs of the war, which could become the fatal straw that breaks the back of the Saudi economy, which is bleeding amid the Iran-US conflict.

Russian and foreign analysts have lowered their forecasts for Russian grain exports. Disruption in transportation through Black Sea ports, the main export channel for agricultural products, was cited as the main reason, according to Nzavisimaya Gazeta.

Exporters are exploring alternative shipping options through ports in the Far East. Ksenia Bolomatova, the executive director of this company, said: "Chinese ports can become transit hubs for supplying goods to different countries. The Russian Grain Association, the Baltic Sea route, serves traditional Russian grain export destinations such as the Middle East, Turkey, and North Africa." This expert emphasized: However, it is more difficult to transport grain to Southeast Asian countries from this route, so the development of Far East terminals is necessary.

The Russian Grain Association believes that other exporters will not be able to fully compensate for the lack of Russian grain supply. "Furthermore, customers will have to pay more for what they get, as we have already seen price increases of 30 percent," Bolomatova warned.

Finam analyst Alexander Potavin agrees that amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's grain exports via traditional routes have been largely limited. The main route of grain export was through the southern ports of Russia in the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea. This path is now disrupted. There are alternative routes, but these routes are longer and more expensive and cannot ensure the same volume of supply at this point. This expert added: The delivery of grain from southern Russia to these ports is much longer and costs more.

"Exporting grain through the Far East is more convenient for Asian customers, but requires more rail and port infrastructure. As a result, it turns out that disruptions affecting the ports of Azov and the Black Sea, as well as risks related to transportation through the Black Sea, will complicate Russian grain exports this year," Potavin concluded.