Will there be a war? when

According to Ambassador Arjan, media activist Ehsan Salehi wrote on Twitter:

Trump is under a lot of pressure regarding the congressional mid-term elections. The result of the election has become an aspect of dignity for him personally, and will have a decisive effect on the last two years of his administration. The loss of the Republicans and the loss of the majority of the Congress will undoubtedly be interpreted as a result of Trump's performance and, in particular, the consequences of the Iran war. The analysis that Netanyahu was able to bring the United States into the war against Iran through influencing Trump has become a popular analysis in American domestic politics, especially with the failure to achieve the goals of the war and the impact of the world economy and American taxpayers on the consequences of the increase in energy rates, a heavy shadow of shame on Trump.

Therefore, although in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump said that the mid-term elections are not his election, but that of the Republican Party, but after that, he is constantly traveling between states to promote Republican candidates, and he even had to say that my name is on the ballot. The loss of the Republicans, in addition to the prestige aspect and the blow to Trump's legacy, in the next two years will cause Trump to be involved in domestic issues, and the Democrats are expected to start a wave of investigations against Trump, his family and associates in revenge for his two years of humiliating policies. Although the impeachment of the president in this period will not reach the quorum in terms of numbers, it will cause his internal preoccupation. Regarding the war against Iran, the Democrats, who have tried several times to force the government to stop the war, but have failed to win the majority of votes in the Senate, will try to stop the war and also create an obstacle to the war budget by dominating the Senate, and they will try to make a lesson from Trump in the American domestic policy.

But the Republicans are still not desperate to maintain the majority in the Senate and they believe that the polling centers are under the influence of the Democrats and they are trying to push the undecideds to their side by publishing fake numbers of their candidates. In this situation, Trump is trying not to introduce a new variable into the Iran equation, which will end up harming the Republican candidates by intensifying the negative consequences such as increasing the fuel price. Trump's statement that he will not attack Iran until the mid-term elections is aimed at reducing the prices in the energy market and greening the financial markets, which of course has not been successful so far. The new agreement with Russia in the field of diesel supply and efforts to reduce the price of petroleum products are also in this framework.

However, the new escalation can have an intensifying negative effect on all these variables, from energy to financial markets and bonds, and destroy the remaining hopes of the Republicans to keep the Senate. Of course, another significant variable is Netanyahu. As much as Trump has been avoiding military tension in these few weeks, even in the face of Iran's military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and the sudden attack on oil tankers, he has stopped countermeasures and the "oil tanker against tanker" equation. According to the calculations of the White House, after the failure of the plan to attack Iran, Netanyahu is not likely to follow his ideal example. Therefore, it is predicted that there will not be a widespread war.

Although limited and symbolic military action from the enemy's side is not unlikely. But after the mid-term elections, even if the Republicans lose the majority of the two chambers, given the two-month gap until the establishment of the new composition of the Congress, Trump is expected to start a new round of heavy conflict and try his chance to rebuild his dignity and legacy. Of course, the defeat of the Republicans can provide a basis for political reforms and, with Trump's irresponsible spirit, introduce a move towards an agreement and giving in to possible concessions due to the restrictions caused by the control of the Congress by the Democrats.