Earthquake Warning for North-Central Iran: 40% Chance of Magnitude 6+ Quake / What If Tehran and Karaj Are Shaken?

Tehran and Karaj, along with several other densely populated cities in north-central Iran, sit near active faults. The zone is home to an estimated 28 to 29 million people, nearly one-third of the country's population. The concentration of population, critical infrastructure, and a large share of Iran's economy in this area has turned earthquake risk into a problem that goes beyond building damage.

Tehran and Karaj, along with several other densely populated cities in north-central Iran, are located in the vicinity of active faults; An area where about 28 to 29 million people, equivalent to nearly a third of the country's population, live. The concentration of population, critical infrastructure and a large part of Iran's economy in this area has made the earthquake risk a problem beyond building damages.

According to Ambassador Arjan, Dr. Mehdi Zare, a professor at the International Research Institute of Seismology, in a conversation with Ambassador Arjan, investigated the possibility of large earthquakes in north-central Iran and spoke about the importance of faults such as North Tehran, Masha, Ray, and Buin Zahra.

The possibility of a major earthquake in the next decade

According to Zare, the review of seismic data recorded over 22 years, along with historical information of more than two thousand years, was used to estimate the probability of an earthquake in this area. Based on this analysis, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 6 in the next decade, in some scenarios and taking into account the critical conditions of the faults, reaches about 40%. The probability of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7 is also stated in this estimate to be about 4.5%.

Read the details of this interview under the title "New warning about earthquakes in Tehran and north-central Iran/ Mehdi Zare: the probability of an earthquake is high from 6 to 40%; Read the scenario of homelessness of 3 million people in Safir Arjan.

Earthquake risk is not only dependent on the probability of its occurrence; Population density, the quality of buildings and the ability to provide relief also play a role in the amount of damage. Zare points to dilapidated fabric, informal settlements, and buildings that were built before strict seismic standards were required.

He also warns about the secondary consequences of the earthquake, including fires caused by damage to the gas network, landslides on the slopes of Alborz, and increased damage to buildings in subsidence areas.

According to Zare, in the worst case scenarios of an earthquake in the Tehran-Karaj corridor, between 1.5 and 3 million people may become homeless immediately. Such an event can disrupt economic activities and the performance of critical infrastructures.

These estimates are not a definite prediction of the time of the earthquake, but are possible scenarios based on seismic risk models. In such a situation, retrofitting buildings, complying with seismic design standards and strengthening relief preparedness are among the most important solutions to reduce possible damage.