How Iran's messaging shows the costs of war ahead of the US midterm elections

Iranian officials emphasize gasoline prices and issues related to the American economy through statements in English.

In messages that appear to have been sent to the American people, Iran has highlighted the cost of the war that the US and Israel waged against the country in the run-up to the US midterm elections.

Iranian officials have published articles in state-affiliated media emphasizing the war's disastrous impact on oil prices and the U.S. economy, while Iran's chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, has actively targeted U.S. officials over increased military spending and spending.

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Sina Toosi, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Tehran is seeking to increase the political costs of the war for Trump by trying to talk directly to the American people.

"It doesn't necessarily mean they're trying to put Democrats in power or manipulate US policy in a particular direction, other than increasing spending overall on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing the information war game as well as telling their own narrative and propaganda," Toosi told Al Jazeera.

Trump's GOP is seeking to retain control of the Senate and House of Representatives in next month's midterm elections. But the Democratic Party, which largely opposes war with Iran, has mounted a strong challenge across the congressional map, including in areas that have been conservative strongholds for decades, such as Texas.

On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared the news that inflation increased to 3.7% last month along with a collage of negative headlines on the US economy.

The social media post also shows a comic strip from the Road Runner cartoon showing Wiley Coyote building a catapult, which misfires and throws a boulder at him.

In a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, who is leading the sanctions campaign against Iran, Ghalibaf wrote: "Let's play 'percentages', not in terms of luck, but in increasing percentages."

Bessant said last month that he represents "the house," likening the economy to a casino while addressing the national debt and bond markets.

Ghalibaf's words pointed to the increase in inflation and emphasized that despite Basnet's statements, the cost of living is still increasing due to the war.

A few days ago, he shared an image of a bell curve silhouette where the price of diesel has risen and housing prices and consumer confidence have fallen.

Since the war began on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and raised energy prices. In the United States, diesel prices have reached a record $6.33 per gallon (3.8 liters), and gasoline is $4.33, up from less than $3.00 before the war.

In recent days, after Trump and his aides repeatedly asserted that this waterway is under American control, Iran has intensified its attacks on ships around the strait.

Rising energy prices fueled overall inflation in the economy and raised the U.S. Federal Reserve last month as Trump called for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic activity.

In a letter to the American people on September 29, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the American economy, and rejected the president's claim that oil prices will drop soon.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: "Countries around the world have lost faith in the American economy. The demand for American bonds has decreased drastically. In fact, countries have started to unload American bonds. Soon the dam will break and the economy will explode, and unfortunately, it will cause great pain to Americans for many years."

"Americans need to wake up. They need to take back control from corrupt politicians. Now is the time when the American political system is at its weakest."

The US midterm elections are seen as a turning point in the dispute - not because of their potential outcome, but because of what Trump might do after the vote.

Trump has offered to either reach a deal with Iran or return to full-scale war after the Nov. 3 parliamentary elections. He has also rejected the idea that everyone's vote will have an impact on Iran's politics.

"They're waiting to see how I do in the midterms. What they don't realize is that I'm not running," Trump told the United Nations General Assembly last month.

I did not and will not give absolutely any credit to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn't even cross my mind. "All it does is Iran will never have nuclear weapons."

If Democrats win control of Congress, they could introduce measures to limit Trump's ability to continue the war, including by withholding funding for the military campaign.

But Toosi said there is a debate inside Iran about the possible impact of a Democratic victory in November.

While some point to foreign policy hawks among Democrats to argue that little will change, others say a midterm defeat would leave him politically vulnerable and likely limit his war-fighting power.

"I don't think they're hedging their bets at all, and I don't think it necessarily affects their overall strategy to increase [war] spending regardless of what happens in November," Tusi told Al Jazeera.