If I were the decision-maker, I would collect property confiscation / Solar energy alone cannot save Iran from the electricity crisis / Self-sufficiency comes at the cost of resource destruction / Aquarium development is not possible

In this part of Safir Arjan's interviews, we have gone to Saeed Mansour Afshar, an entrepreneur and engineer in the field of electricity and electronics and the manager of Horand Company; Someone who has done extensive research on the energy, water and electricity crisis and the existing conflicts in Iran. In this conversation, with a critical and challenging look, he looks at concepts such as self-sufficiency, confiscation of property, energy production and water crisis and challenges the common perceptions of these issues.

Ambassador Arjan; Hassan Zahouri - When we talk about development in Iran, we usually hear it from officials and in the form of statistics and promises; But on the other side of the story, there are those who have worked in Iran's real economy for decades and have experienced development not in reports, but in the field.

Saeed Mansoor Afshar is one of these people; An entrepreneur who has worked in the private sector and industry for more than three decades and is the founder of Horand Group. In his years of activity, in addition to production and entrepreneurship, he has expressed clear views on issues such as management, sustainable development, water crisis, renewable energy and the future of Iran's economy.

The important thing about Mansour Afshar's views is that many of the warnings he raised years ago about water, energy and the way of development in Iran have turned into serious and concrete issues today; From land subsidence and water crisis to energy imbalance and difficulty in investment and production.

Today we want to ask him why Iran has not been able to get on the path of sustainable development despite all this capacity. Is the main problem the lack of resources or the way they are managed? Has what we have done in the past decades in the name of development always meant progress, or has part of it become a factor in the destruction of the country's resources and future?

And most importantly; If we are going to talk about Iran's future without compliments, can we still hope for development or should we prepare ourselves to manage a country plagued by multiple crises?

In a conversation with Ambassador Arjan, Afshar emphasizes that development, contrary to what is thought in many policies, is not a short-term project, but a multidimensional and continuous process. According to him, it is not possible to formulate a realistic plan for the development of Iran without communicating with universities, scientific and industrial centers of the world and familiarizing with the experience of other countries.

He uses the term "aquarium development" to explain this issue; A situation in which a country wants to travel the path of development alone without effective communication with the world. In his opinion, such an idea is not possible; Because even a country that is capable of domestic production in some fields, must be able to include costs, economic advantages, modern technologies and the conditions of global markets in its calculations.

Afshar considers the experience of working in the electronics industry as a proof of this. According to him, connection with industrial exhibitions and familiarity with global achievements have been important factors for the survival of Horand company in the private sector. He believes that policymakers should have such a connection and take mastery of foreign languages ​​and interaction with international scientific and industrial centers seriously.

One of the main points of Afshar's criticism is replacing the slogan of self-sufficiency instead of development strategy. He believes that this view, especially in the field of agriculture, has caused heavy damage to the country's natural resources.

According to him, Iran is a land with little water and this fact is not limited to recent years. In the past, the sharing of water has been vitally important and even local disputes over water have been recorded in Iran's social history. However, the policies that were followed with the aim of providing 100% of the country's food needs through domestic production, provided the basis for the expansion of agricultural land, increased water consumption and pressure on underground resources.

Afshar warns that underground water resources are the capital of future generations and their indiscriminate extraction destroys assets that cannot be easily restored. Referring to the reports attributed to the Ministry of Energy, he believes that the water crisis in Iran has passed the normal shortage stage and has reached the border of water bankruptcy.

He even warns about the future of Tehran's water supply. According to Afshar, the projected population capacity for Tehran in old studies is much lower than the current population of this city, and the continuation of the existing trend can face serious problems in the capital's water supply in the coming years. At the end of the interview, he warns that if the management of water resources is not improved, Tehran may face a severe water shortage within the next four years. A warning that he puts forward in the hope that he was wrong in his prediction.

From his point of view, the issue is not only water consumption in the fields. The establishment of water-bearing industries, including steel industries, in the central arid regions of the country is not compatible with the logic of sustainable development. Afshar points to provinces such as Yazd, Isfahan, Kerman and Khorasan and says that in a country facing limited fresh water resources, the location of heavy industries should be chosen according to water resources and geographical advantages.

On the other hand, he considers the southern coasts of the country and the areas around the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea to have capacities that can be used for industrial development. In his opinion, the gradual transfer of water extraction activities to the coastal areas, along with the creation of the necessary infrastructure, can reduce part of the pressure on the water resources of the central areas.

Afshar also suggests that in order to provide part of the country's food needs, investment and cultivation should be investigated in countries that have more water resources. He links this solution to the necessity of international interaction and emphasizes that it is impossible to stay away from communication with the world and expect all the country's needs to be met with domestic resources.

Development without environment has no meaning

Afshar distinguishes between economic growth and sustainable development. To explain this difference, he points to the development of large industries and says that setting up factories and increasing production capacity alone does not mean development. If there is no plan for pollution control and environmental protection at the same time as industrial growth, the economic gains will not be sustainable.

He defines development on the three axes of "man, environment and welfare" and believes that these three elements should be seen together. In his opinion, development that is achieved at the cost of destroying natural resources or harming human health cannot be a successful model.

To explain the consequences of ignoring this principle, Afshar points to the pollution caused by the consumption of heavy fuels in power plants. According to his belief, when industrial and power plant activities lead to an increase in respiratory diseases, the cost of treatment and supply of medicine falls on the shoulders of society and the health system. In such a situation, a part of the cost that could have been spent on prevention and correction of the production structure will be spent to compensate for the damages caused by the same structure.

He compares this situation to the story of Charlie Chaplin's "The Boy"; Where first a glass is broken and then money is taken from the home owner to install a new glass. According to Afshar, policymaking should not first provide the basis for the production of damage and then use public resources to compensate for its consequences.

Solar energy is not a simple solution to the electricity crisis

Afshar, who has set up a solar system in his company's office building on Saadi Street in Tehran since 2008, also brings up the practical experience of using solar energy in the conversation.

According to him, there is about 90 square meters of panel installation space in this building and a system with an approximate capacity of 7 kilowatts has been launched. Due to the inability of the relevant company to provide proper storage, the complex has been forced to purchase batteries to store the generated electricity; High cost batteries.

Afshar emphasizes that solar energy, despite its great importance, is not a simple technology that can be replaced by other energy sources regardless of technical and economic requirements. Panels are only one of the components of the system, and equipment such as inverter, suitable cables, control systems, supporting structure and storage equipment are also important. He also mentions the difficulty of providing some equipment and the impact of sanctions on this sector.

According to him, the maintenance of solar power plants has its own costs and complications. Dust, the need to wash panels, limited water resources, bird droppings, and security issues are among the problems that must be considered in the design and operation of these power plants. He also mentions the possibility of using less water-based methods to clean the panels and says that alternative technologies for this purpose are being investigated.

Afshar considers solar energy to be part of the energy portfolio, not a definitive cure for all the country's electricity problems. According to him, renewable energies include a set of technologies, from solar and wind energy to geothermal and ocean energy, and each of them should be used according to geographical and economic conditions.

At the same time, he emphasizes the necessity of creating economic incentives for the participation of the people and the private sector. According to him, the experience of countries like Germany shows that the possibility of buying electricity produced by citizens and providing service, maintenance and maintenance mechanisms can increase investment motivation. Therefore, the renewable energy development policy should go beyond announcing large capacities and presenting the statistics of panel installations and consider the real economics of electricity production and maintenance.

Afshar believes that development should start with education before starting with factories and big projects. He criticizes the decline in the quality of universities, the lack of laboratory facilities, the livelihood problems of professors, and the limited opportunities for study and international communication.

According to him, increasing the number of universities does not necessarily mean increasing the quality of education. The university needs a capable professor, research facilities and connection with reputable scientific centers for the training of specialists. He also believes that development education should start from the years before elementary school; Where children can learn dialogue, cooperation, acceptance of differences, respect for the rights of others and the concept of freedom.

Afshar does not consider capital to be only money and introduces experience, life and work skills, and the ability to tolerate opposing opinions as part of human capital. In his opinion, a society in which people do not have enough freedom and the private sector cannot operate independently will not be able to achieve sustainable development.

He considers one of the important obstacles to the growth of private companies in Iran is the point-oriented view of ownership. According to Afshar, ownership should be recognized as a right, not a privilege whose survival depends on political conditions and decisions. He believes that uncertainty about ownership and the possibility of expropriation weakens the motivation for long-term investment and prevents the formation of companies that can continue to operate for several generations.

Afshar also considers the replacement of the will of individuals instead of the law as one of the country's structural problems. According to him, the law should be implemented in different conditions and its change should be done through legal institutions and based on the needs of the society. He emphasizes that economic freedom, the rule of law and the possibility of independent private sector activity are prerequisites for development.

Management reform and revision of policies

Afshar, in response to the question that if he had the authority to decide on the development of the country, what measures he would prioritize, emphasizes three axes: withdrawing from some incorrect policies, removing the approach of confiscation in the law, and seriously increasing investment in education.

He doesn't necessarily consider backing down from wrong decisions as a sign of weakness and believes that insisting on a policy simply because it has already been taken can increase the damage. According to him, correcting the path and discarding wrong decisions should be accepted as a part of managerial rationality.

In the field of education, his suggestion is to significantly increase the salaries and support of teachers, especially preschool and elementary school teachers, and university professors. Of course, Afshar emphasizes that development is a long-term process and even with the right decisions, fundamental reforms may take 15 to 20 years.

In addition to these issues, he also criticizes the structure of selecting managers and believes that personal and family relationships should not take the place of competence and expertise. According to him, the presence of non-specialists in decision-making positions and the withdrawal of capable forces limits the capacity for reform and transformation.

Afshar also raises questions about the expansion of state-owned companies and their subsidiaries and believes that these structures can lead to increased costs and difficulty in monitoring. As an example, he points to the number of subsidiary companies of some large groups and the high ratio of employees and retirees to operational capacity in some companies. In his opinion, when the costs of inefficient structures are financed from public resources, the financial pressure of the government will increase and the result can appear in the form of inflation.

At the end of the conversation, Afshar prioritizes the reform of water and electricity management. He believes that the pricing and management of water resources should be modified in such a way that the real cost of water supply and distribution is known and consumers become more aware of their consumption.

However, according to him, the price increase alone is not enough, and first of all, the waste of resources, leakage of networks and weak management should be corrected. He points out that part of the water wastage is caused by infrastructure problems and the cost of network inefficiency should not be easily passed on to the people.