Sleeper GOP Candidate Enters Blue-Leaning State Race as Fraud Scandal Overshadows Democrats

Michelle Tafoya trails Peggy Flanagan by just four points, as the widespread welfare fraud scandal in Minnesota reshapes the rare Senate pickup opportunity.

Minnesota Clash: Michelle Tafoya says Peggy Flanagan deserves a 'pink slip', not promotion

It has been nearly a quarter of a century since the Republicans last won the Senate elections in the blue state. But Tafoya, a longtime former NFL sideline reporter, plans to break that streak by flipping the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

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The race is unfolding against the backdrop of Minnesota's massive welfare fraud scandal, which has captured national attention for nearly a year and prompted Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to abandon his 2026 re-election bid. The scandal has also become a central issue in Tafoya's campaign against Flanagan.

Tafoya asserted that "there has been historic fraud in this state, where my opponent, Peggy Flanagan, was the second in the state. And not only was money stolen, but programs that were supposed to get help, like baby food or autistic kids or seniors that were supposed to be visits, health, visits, visits, health, visits, visits, visits, empty visits. Out."

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Tafoya said, "Wallace realized he wasn't going to win another term as governor under the circumstances, but my opponent thinks he deserves a promotion. I think people are starting to realize he deserves a pink slip."

Flanagan said he was "incredibly angry about the fraud", acknowledging public disappointment over the scandal that more could have been done sooner to catch and prevent the fraud. The deputy governor has noted that he was not in charge of government agencies at the center of the scandals or directing the government's day-to-day response. He has also distanced himself from Walls, who pleaded guilty to the fraud.

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Referring to Flanagan, Kukowski said he has "a lot of fraud ... and that's really made the Senate race very tight here."

Tafoya also points to the recent spate of mass shootings in Minneapolis-St. Paul is on the outskirts of the city and on Monday announced a five-point plan to combat violence.

"First of all, we have to name the problem, and even Somali lawmakers and law enforcement have named it. We have a problem of Somali gang violence. We have to name it. He refuses to name it. If you don't name it, you can't solve it," Tafoya stressed, referring to Flanagan.

Flanagan, a progressive candidate backed by left-wing stalwarts Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ro Khanna, topped moderate Democrat Rep. Angie Craig by 20 points in the August Senate primary.

Tafoya won more than 50 percent of the vote in the GOP Senate primary as he topped a crowded field of contenders. He was heavily courted by national Republicans, including Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

"Michelle Tafoya has a story to tell. She's doing a really good job. This is a race that's going to end," Scott said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the top Republican in the House, recently teamed up with Tafoya on the campaign trail in Minnesota. But the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Thune, the top Republican Senate candidate-backed PAC, has yet to make a major investment in the race.

Asked about national Republican support, Tafoya said, "We're getting small dollar donations from all over the country. We're getting donations from every county in the state, and I'm a happy warrior, and I'm going to deal with the conditions that I'm given... We're going to win this campaign on ideas."

Democrats are hoping that popular Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is running for governor this year, can push Flanagan across the finish line.

French argued that "Republicans are spending in deep red states and seeing the battleground map around them. Their desperate last-minute effort to push Minnesota into the game is a political ploy."

Flanagan has repeatedly tied Tafoya to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings in Minnesota are extremely low.

"Michelle Tafoya loves everything about Donald Trump — and he loves everything," Flanagan reiterated in a social media post on Monday.

Flanagan, who is Native American, also wrote on X: "My Ojibwe name is Gizhiiwewidamookwe, which means 'speaks loud and clear'. Woman." I will be the voice of Minnesota in the United States Senate - not the voice of Donald Trump.

But Tafoya appears to be clarifying between himself and Trump by emphasizing his support for abortion rights.

"I'm a pro-choice Republican and I'm not afraid to stand up for my party," Tafoya says in his new ad. When Trump is right, I will work with him. "When he's wrong, I'll stand up for Minnesota."

The ad was quickly criticized by right-wing leaders.

Including Mercedes Schlapp, a senior fellow at the Conservative Political Action Conference, who said on social media: "Pro-life Republicans will stay home after watching this ad."

But hours later, Trump pressed Tafoya, telling a crowd at an Ohio rally he headlined: "You should vote for Michelle Tafoya, who is a very respectable person."

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