We all want to know "what will happen in the end"/ Saeed Mandari: The need to control the future arouses curiosity/ Analysis, prediction and prediction are different.

Why is it that when the future becomes uncertain and uncontrollable, people seek to predict it more than ever? Saeed Mandari, a sociologist, believes that this behavior is not only caused by curiosity; The "need to control the future" and the effort to reduce uncertainty and prepare for different scenarios lead people to follow predictions; Even if they know, none of them can determine the future with certainty.

Elahe Jafarzadeh: The future has always been a subject of curiosity for humans, but the more uncertainty life brings, the stronger the desire to know "what will happen"; From the future of the economy and job situation and immigration to political and social developments and of course the possibility of crises such as war. In such a situation, predictions, analyzes and speculations become a part of people's daily search to understand the future; Even when they themselves know, no prediction can determine the future with certainty.

A 2026 study on information-seeking behavior on the eve of a security crisis has also shown that increased anxiety and intolerance of ambiguity can lead people to seek more diverse sources and even predictive and speculative sources. Another research has also investigated the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty and fear of war and preparedness behaviors to face the threat.

But does the desire to predict the future come from mere curiosity? Or is there an attempt to reduce anxiety, create a sense of control, find hope, or prepare for different scenarios?

In an interview with Saeed Mandari, a sociologist and university professor, we have examined why in uncertain conditions, people turn to predicting the future more than in the past, and what this behavior has to do with feelings of helplessness, hope, social trust, and the role of media and social networks.

The need to control the future arouses curiosity about the future.

In crises, people feel that the power of the future is out of their hands.

Different forecasts are an attempt to prepare for different scenarios.

Declining trust in the media makes it harder to distinguish analysis from rumor and prophecy.

Why even contradictory predictions are attractive and followable for people?

The details of this conversation are as follows:

Mr. Doctor, humans always seek to predict the future; But this desire is intensified in critical situations. why

Yes, humans are always interested in predicting the future; They want to know how the future will be for themselves, their family and their children. For this reason, they usually have social participation and try to determine the future to some extent with their intervention. A person who participates in elections, joins a party or attends religious gatherings is actually trying to build a future for himself and his family to some extent.

But in critical situations, man is disarmed to some extent and can no longer plan for the future or participate in shaping it as before. In situations such as war and insecurity, a person feels that his hand is short and he cannot support his family as in the past; Therefore, it becomes more inclined to predict the future.

Of course, in social sciences, we do not have certainty and can only provide relative probability. Even in a normal society, not all future events can be predicted; Illness, accident, heart attack or family dispute may occur. But in a normal society, it is more possible to plan for the future and this issue creates more peace.

Even though people know that a prediction is not necessarily accurate, why do they still follow it?

Part of it comes down to curiosity. In any situation, people want to know what will happen. But the issue is not just curiosity; Even if the future is unpleasant, a person wants to know about it so that he can reduce possible losses for himself, his family and those around him. Therefore, predicting the future, even if it is catastrophic, can create a kind of shield so that one is better prepared for possible harm.

On the other hand, there is an important point in anthropology and social sciences; When people share a common tragedy, they may feel more at ease. For example, in some societies, during drought, people gather together and pray. One of the hidden functions of this behavior is that the person feels that he is not alone in this disaster and that others are also experiencing it. If you imagine that a disaster is only going to happen to you or your family, you will be more desperate and anxious; But when you see that others are involved in it, part of this concern is shared.

Doesn't the repeated experience of crisis make people seek to predict the next crisis more than before?

We have been facing all kinds of crises for years; From the Iran-Iraq war and sanctions to internal conflicts, assassinations and various tensions. For this reason, the society has been constantly faced with crises and mental injuries. In war, this situation becomes more widespread, because a large part of society is involved.

In many studies on wars, it has been seen that at the beginning of a war, people usually expect the crisis to end very soon, and less imagine that it may last for several years. But sometimes the war is prolonged and involves a generation. For this reason, in war conditions, the desire to know the future increases; Because unlike, for example, an earthquake or a flood that may affect a region, war can affect the economic, cultural, political and social relations of a society.

Can we say that predicting the future has replaced feeling of control in such situations?

In a war situation, authority is largely removed from the individual's hands and major decisions are made at another level. A person cannot create a safe margin for himself; Because the economy, employment, illness, inflation and shortages can affect his life.

The future cannot be changed, but it can be planned for. A person wants a significant part of his plan to be realized, but in insecure conditions, he doesn't even know to what extent the plans he has for his life and his family can be realized. Worries about children, employment, illness and the future of the family all attack a person together. In such a situation, the crisis practically takes away the possibility of planning and trying to realize it from the individual and social groups, including the family.

So why do people sometimes follow contradictory predictions at the same time?

Because they want to plan for different possibilities. If they think that the war will be prolonged, they may act to provide provisions or save money; If they think that the situation will be normal sooner, they should have another plan. When there are several scenarios, a person tries to have a plan for each one so that he can protect himself, his family and those around him from the crisis.

Why sometimes people don't differentiate between expert analysis, possible prediction, rumor and even prophecy?

Sometimes, part of this problem comes back to the media itself. When a media releases false or untrue news or does not fully cover an incident, people's trust in it decreases. As a result, in a society with low media awareness, people become more vulnerable and cannot differentiate between expert analysis, rumour, possible prediction and even prophecy.

In communication, we have a term called "boomerang effect"; The media that constantly or most of the time publish untrue news, eventually turn distrust towards themselves and gradually lose their authority.

What role do social networks play in the formation and expansion of various predictions about the future?

Not all social networks have the same influence and their influence depends on their credibility and social capital, i.e. the degree of mutual trust. For example, if you trust an ambassador or an expert, they will naturally influence you more than people you don't trust.

Influential social networks can prepare the mind of the audience to accept different predictions. Of course, these predictions can have two modes; Either they are really based on future studies and careful studies, or they may be expressed in line with political goals. This is where media awareness and literacy become important and we must know to what extent we can rely on a media or its prediction.

Ultimately, does the desire to predict the future come more from curiosity or a need for control?

both; The need to control the future arouses curiosity. A young person wants to know whether to go to university or not, to immigrate or not, what career to choose and what will be the future of his life. In situations of deep social crises, war or major changes, many programs that people have worked for for years may be affected.

Finally, it can be said that uncertainty about the future, along with the feeling of helplessness and desperation, makes a person more curious and at least wants to predict the minimum necessary for the future life of himself, his family and those around him. Even in the most critical situations, people want to know whether the future will be worse or better, so that they can be prepared for each of these situations. That is why, as the feeling of powerlessness against the future increases, the question "what will happen in the end?" It is repeated more often.