The latest developments in the war between America and Iran; the shadow of a new attack on the region; From extensive military movements to the threat of Mount Klang

The increase in American military and refueling flights, the publication of reports about preparations for an attack on Iran, military movements in the Persian Gulf, and reports of the reopening of shelters in Israel have increased the possibility of an escalation of tension; However, the simultaneity of these developments with the American media report about the suspension of American attacks in the Strait of Hormuz indicates the continuation of uncertainty about Washington's final decision.

Ambassador Arjan - International Group: The increase in the flight of American military and refueling planes in the region, the publication of reports about the readiness of the Zionist and American armies for a large-scale attack on Iran, military movements around the Persian Gulf and the reopening of shelters in the occupied territories, have increased speculations about the possibility of resuming attacks. At the same time, the Axios report on the suspension of US attacks on Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's warning about responding to any aggression indicates the continuation of the tense military and diplomatic situation.

American military movements and increasing speculations about attacking Iran

In the past 24 hours, a series of reports and claims have been published about the increase in US-Israeli military movements, which, along with Donald Trump's threats against Iran, have drawn attention to the possibility of a resumption of conflicts.

According to reports published in various media, 98 military flights were registered in the region in the last 24 hours, 10 of which were related to the arrival of planes from outside the region and other flights were related to regional military activities. Among these flights, 37 flights of refueling planes and eight flights of spy planes have been reported.

Also, unofficial reports have been published about the simultaneous presence of several US Air Force refueling planes in the sky of the UAE and the activity of at least five refueling planes over the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

These movements become more important in situations where refuelers can increase the operational range of fighters and enable the continuation of air operations. However, an increase in military flights alone does not mean that an attack is certain, and for a more accurate assessment, information about the flight path, the type of aircraft and their possible missions should be reviewed.

America's claim of readiness for a massive attack

In the continuation of these developments, some unconfirmed news from an informed official in the US Ministry of Defense tells about the possibility of limited US military operations against Iran.

There have also been claims about the possibility of using mortar bombs against targets in Tehran, Isfahan, Yazd and Qom. In these reports, Mount Kalang, nuclear facilities and some centers related to Iran's missile program are mentioned as possible targets. None of the information published in the media has been confirmed by official sources.

Donald Trump also raised the possibility of attacking Mount Klang in an interview published by Ambassador Arjan on October 16; A place that has been noticed in reports related to Iran's nuclear program. He also did not rule out the use of the so-called "mother of bombs" bomb, but emphasized that he has no intention of using nuclear weapons or sending American ground forces to Iran.

Despite these statements, there is no independent information that confirms the list of targets published on some social networks or the definitive decision to use this bomb against the named cities.

Reopening of shelters in Israel; A sign of impending attack?

The publication of reports about the establishment of mobile shelters in Tel Aviv and the emptying of the skies of the occupied territories from normal flights has become one of the axes of speculation about the possibility of an increase in tension.

According to the published information about Ben Gurion Airport's aviation notice, the airport was closed on October 16, from 18:55 to 22:55 local time, due to maintenance and infrastructure operations.

Therefore, the announced closure of the airport is not in itself a sign of preparations for a military attack. Also, reports on the reopening of shelters should be reconciled with official announcements and credible media reports in order to judge their relevance to the possibility of an attack on Iran.

However, the coincidence of these reports with the increase of military flights in the region and Trump's new threats have increased the sensitivities about the developments in the coming hours.

Axios: America has stopped attacks on Iranian vessels

On the other side of the developments, in a report quoted by an American official, Ambassador Arjan announced that the White House has suspended attacks on Iranian missiles and drones in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to this report, the purpose of this decision is to prevent the escalation of tensions on the eve of the American mid-term elections on November 3. However, the suspension of attacks on some military targets does not mean the end of the confrontation or the abandonment of the military option.

Axios previously reported that the Trump administration was considering military options to resume operations against Iran, but the final decision depends on developments on the ground and Washington's political calculations.

This situation shows that along with military preparations, political and economic considerations also play a role in the White House's decision-making; Especially, the increase in the price of oil and the expansion of the conflict can increase the domestic and international costs of war.

The increase in oil prices and the accident for the supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz

At the same time as concerns increase about the possibility of escalation of the conflict, published reports indicate that the price of Brent oil has crossed $110.

The Strait of Hormuz is still one of the main centers of confrontation between Iran and America; A region where any disruption to shipping could affect the global energy market and shipping costs.

In this context, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil, which was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, exploded and caught fire after hitting a sea mine.

This military organization claimed that the said tanker intended to cross the forbidden route by turning off the positioning and radar systems and with the support of the United States. However, the details of the incident, the exact identity of the tanker and the cause of the explosion have yet to be independently confirmed.

International reports also indicate an increase in attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times newspaper wrote in a report on October 14 that in the two weeks ending October 11, 24 ships were attacked; A situation that has increased the concern of shipping companies and reduced their desire to cross this waterway.

Warning of the Commander in Chief of the Iranian Army; A response to Israel's infrastructure

In response to the threats of America and Israel, the Commander-in-Chief of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran warned that if Iran's infrastructure is threatened, the infrastructure of Israel and any country that cooperates with this regime will be attacked.

Also, Aladdin Boroujerdi, a member of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, in response to the threat of using the "Mother of Bombs" announced that Iran will respond accordingly if such an attack occurs.

On the other hand, the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, emphasizing Iran's role in maritime traffic management, announced that ships should pass through the Strait of Hormuz with the coordination of Tehran. He also said that if the US withdraws from the region, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened, and if not, Iran will expel the American forces.

These positions show that in the current situation, Tehran considers the management of the Strait of Hormuz as one of its main levers against the military and economic pressure of Washington.

lack of American defense missiles; The challenge of rebuilding military reserves

In another development, the American CBS network has announced the severe shortage of interceptor missiles of the THAAD and Patriot defense systems.

According to the estimate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in this report, the United States had about 2,300 Patriot interceptor missiles before the start of the war, and used between 1,050 and 1,430 missiles of this type during the conflict with Iran.

This estimate also suggests that even if most of these munitions are stopped, rebuilding the US stockpile may take until 2030.

In the same context, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the President of Ukraine, referring to Iran's missile and drone power, claimed that no European country has the ability to deal with a massive attack by thousands of Iranian drones with a range of more than 4,000 kilometers.

These statements, if consistent with independent technical and intelligence assessments, emphasize the importance of the defense capacity and the amount of interceptor reserves in the military calculations of the United States and its allies; However, it cannot be concluded from them that Washington is not capable of implementing new operations.

Will the attack begin in the next few hours?

All the developments of the past 24 hours, from the increase in military movements and the continued threats of the US and Israel to the reports of mobile shelters in Tel Aviv and the increase in tension in the Strait of Hormuz, show that the risk of escalation of the conflict is still serious.