Pakistan Blocks Imran Khan's Stronghold, But It May Backfire
Some fear that the government's standoff with the former prime minister's supporters could bring more instability, not less.
By Carolyn Davies, Pakistan Correspondent
Schools were closed, the internet was partially shut down, roads were blocked by shipping containers. And the army entered the city.
Imran Khan's party stronghold Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is under a state of emergency and his party's provincial government has been suspended. It is another dramatic escalation in the standoff between the former prime minister's supporters and the Pakistani government — and some fear it will lead to more, not less, instability.
According to the federal government, the step, which is allowed by the constitution, was necessary to protect the population of the province from the threat of terror.
"The PTI KPK government was in the hands of terrorists," Federal Information Minister Atta Tarar told reporters on Sunday. He did not elaborate or provide proof, but promised to do so soon.
Two days later, there was still no word from him - but schools in Peshawar and most of the province had reopened and internet service had been restored.
While the police have not confirmed any arrests, there is clearly a crackdown underway to prevent protests. Most of the leaders of Tehreek-e-Insaf are hiding in this province.
On Tuesday, dozens of Tehreek-e-Insaf supporters came to the streets in Bara, Khyber district, the hometown of Sohail Afridi, the chief minister of the province. There are reports of tear gas being fired in this area.
For many observers, the timing of the emergency declaration on Sunday is no coincidence.
Last week, thousands of Imran Khan's supporters marched in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where Tehreek-e-Insaf has been in power for 13 years, demanding Khan's release.
"The charity's response is to say it sounds disingenuous," says Farzaneh Sheikh, a fellow at Chatham House.
Arifa Noor, a journalist and commentator, says: "I don't see a connection with terrorism." "I'm not even sure if it was the long march itself [that led to this]. Maybe it was the last straw or maybe it's just a case of saying, we don't want to deal with a government in the hands of an opposition party."
This demonstration was led by Chief Minister Afridi, whose whereabouts are still a mystery. His party says he has been arrested. The government says he is in protective custody.
Before the start of the march, there was a crackdown. Three of Khan's sisters were arrested in September and accused of mobilizing fans, among other things, and have been in custody ever since.
Khan has barely been seen by his family or lawyers in the past year. Two of his sisters visited him in August, one in prison, the other during a hospital check-up after the High Court expressed concern about his health, before he was returned to prison, where he has been held for more than three years.
The leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf party, who is widely believed to have lost his power due to a dispute with Pakistan's powerful army, has been in prison since August 2023. He has been convicted in several corruption cases that he says are politically motivated.
When the party is already weakened, why this reaction from the authorities?
"The PTI's rank and file has become increasingly unsettled in recent months due to growing concerns about Imran Khan's health," said Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia fellow at the Atlantic Council.
"There is a feeling that maybe now is the time for them to send a very strong message to the party and put pressure on the government."
The government had previously argued that Khan was defying prison rules by using his meetings to discuss political issues.
"There was no political agenda. They could have marched on," Terrar said of the emergency, pointing to talks the two sides had in the run-up to the decision as an indication they tried to negotiate.
But others see it as just another attempt to limit Khan and his party.
Noor says: "The government has less and less room for disagreement or opposition, and they don't want to negotiate their way out of any kind of conflict."
Islamabad-based writer and defense analyst Zahid Hussain is clear about who is behind the decision.
"The balance of power has been completely shifted to the military establishment," he says.
Sheikh thinks that the Pakistani military feels confident because it believes that it has a good relationship with the White House. International credibility has been established by their role in the Iran-US peace talks.
"There's so much going on, this is the moment, let's seize it," he says. There is a sense that we hold all the cards.
Former cricket captains demand 'proper medical attention' from Imran Khan
Imran Khan is not the only one who has been silenced by the Pakistani military's crackdown on dissent
Divides the cricket star and former Prime Minister of Pakistan
But Pakistan has a lot to fight for. Militancy is on the rise. This country ranked first in the 2026 Global Terrorism Index as the most affected country.
This country is involved with two neighbors. It has repeatedly targeted Afghanistan with airstrikes and accused the Afghan Taliban government of harboring militant groups, a claim it denies. It would take little to reignite its long-running conflict with India.
Meanwhile, it has pledged to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against attacks as the conflict against the Houthis becomes increasingly dangerous.
Along with solving one problem, some have warned that this emergency could lead to more challenges. This increases the risk of political instability, as Islamabad assumes responsibility for an unfettered province – the provincial government – they can blame.
"I would argue that it can actually backfire," Kugelman says. "You're playing with fire because if this move raises a lot of anger and resentment out there, then you've got a pretty big problem on your hands."
Hossein says: "Considering the challenges, the numerous challenges that the country is facing, it is reckless. He is worried that more of these powers will be used across Pakistan.
Sheikh argues that efforts to combat militancy with more active military operations can come with their own risks.
"If they are going to start this operation, they should be ready to accept the casualties of members of the armed forces," he says. He adds that if these cases are significant, they could lead to questions within the military establishment.
With its history of military coups, Pakistan has examples in its past where the removal of elected governments, both provincial and national, can get worse.