Ukraine and the US: What Happens After Trump's Diesel Deal With Russia?

Donald Trump intends to allow the purchase of Russian diesel, which has sparked domestic and foreign criticism. What lies behind the US president's decision, and what should Ukraine do next? DW spoke with experts.

Trump's diesel deal with Russia and what it means for Ukraine

13/10/2026 October 13, 2026 Donald Trump plans to authorize the purchase of Russian diesel fuel, which has sparked domestic and foreign criticism. What is behind the decision of the American president and what should Ukraine do next? DW spoke to experts.

The diesel deal between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has angered Ukraine. According to this agreement, Moscow is allowed to supply Russian diesel fuel to the world market. American news website Axios reported that this action was taken in response to Kiev's failure to comply with Washington's demands to stop attacks on oil refineries in Russia.

Trump also announced that it was time for Ukraine to have a new president.

The agreement to sell diesel was announced while the negotiations between representatives of Ukraine, America and Europe were going on in Miami.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters shortly afterward: "I think our team is being used just as a cover. It's definitely not fair."

This is hardly Kyiv's first crisis in its relations with the Trump administration. "You don't have a card," Trump told Zelensky in the Oval Office in February 2025.

The White House confrontation was accompanied by the suspension of arms deliveries and information sharing agreements. According to media reports, US special envoys Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner threatened to suspend information sharing during the talks in Miami, citing Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries as the reason. American officials have denied these reports.

In an interview with DW, Mykhailo Honchar from the Center for Global Studies of Ukraine "Strategy XXI" says that he remembers the current tension of the conflict in the White House at that time. However, he says there is no reason for Ukrainians to panic.

He said: "Last year, there were also threats and suspension of information exchange, as well as disruptions in the supply of weapons." Then the Americans realized how much it was hurting them and reluctantly resumed everything.

All experts interviewed by Deutsche Welle see a connection between Trump's threats against Ukraine and the US mid-term elections on November 3. In the midterm elections, all seats in the House of Representatives and almost one-third of the seats in the Senate are up for election.

Ivan Os of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv expects the Republicans to suffer a heavy defeat. He says the main reason will be the high price of fuel.

"Donald Trump desperately wants to divert attention from the fact that high prices are connected to his war with Iran and the problems in the Strait of Hormuz. He needs a victim for this. And he has decided that it will be Ukraine," the expert said.

Mykhailo Honchar considers Russia to be the main beneficiary of Trump's deal with Putin: "This whole diesel deal seems to be Putin's secret request to Trump to exert influence on Ukraine."

Honchar also links this agreement to the possible sale of foreign assets of the Russian oil company Lukoil. According to the New York Times, potential buyers of these assets include investors with ties to Trump.

Trump, Russia and Ukraine: Has America changed sides again?

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Alexander Cruyff of the Ukrainian think tank Ukrainian Charter warns against drastic action.

"Slamming the door in anger is certainly not going to help us," the expert said. "In that case, security assistance and intelligence sharing are off the table. We cannot do that. It may be difficult and sometimes repulsive, but we have to communicate with the Americans."

At the same time, Ukraine can cooperate with Germany, Denmark, Great Britain and France to make the delivery of Russian diesel fuel "unrealistic". After all, tankers on their way to the United States must pass through the territorial waters of these countries, and the partners have already said they will not allow it.

Ivan Os advises not to read too much into harsh rhetoric.

"You can say whatever you want in public, as long as you carry on as before," he said of possible relations between Kiev and Washington.

Ukrainian diplomats should cooperate with US Republicans and the MAGA movement. Trump's agreement with Putin has already been criticized in these circles and has raised some concerns that Russia can use the income from the diesel trade to support Iran.

We also do not rule out a legal challenge to Trump's decision. Republican Sen. Tom Tillis told NBC that the president is likely to violate the 2022 law, which bans imports of Russian oil and other energy products.

Ivan Os sees US threats to cut off Ukraine's information or weapons connections as nothing more than "fear" on the eve of the election.

"The U.S. is making statements like this not because it is going to take action, but because it is trying to convince the markets that it is going to apply pressure and thereby lower prices," Oss said.

The three experts agree that Kiev will have to overcome this situation after the US midterm elections on November 3. Alexander Cruyff says he is sure Trump may back off after the election, because leaving Ukraine would mean showing weakness to China.

Mykhailo Henchar points out that Trump's agreement with Putin is now being criticized by Republicans in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Additionally, Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick has introduced a bipartisan bill named after former US President Ronald Reagan that would block the purchase of Russian oil.

"Despite all the threats and maybe even some attempts to impose temporary measures against Kiev, Trump is unlikely to go any further. The situation should not be portrayed in apocalyptic terms," Honchar said.

He added that Trump's pressure also brings Ukraine and its European partners closer to each other.

This article was originally published in Ukrainian.