UAE's Condition for War Alongside Saudi Arabia | If the US Enters This War…

The UAE has conditioned its return to the Yemen war on preserving its share in southern Yemen and restoring its political and military influence. Alongside growing differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over the future of southern Yemen, this condition has clouded prospects for an agreement between the two sides.

The UAE has made the return to the war in Yemen conditional on maintaining its share in the south of this country and restoring its political and military influence; A condition that, along with the growing differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over the future of southern Yemen, has made the prospect of an agreement between the two sides uncertain.

According to Ambassador Arjan's report, Al-Akhbar newspaper wrote that despite the visit of UAE Vice President Mansour bin Zayed to Saudi Arabia, there is still no sign of resolving the differences between the two countries over Yemen. In order to enter the war, Abu Dhabi has stipulated the recapture of the administration of southern Yemen and the preservation of its share; Meanwhile, Riyadh continues to maintain its levers of pressure and accuses the Southern Transitional Council supported by the UAE of treason.

Two weeks have passed since Mansour bin Zayed, the vice president of the UAE, visited Saudi Arabia, but no practical signs of progress in resolving the differences between the two countries have been observed. An issue that is contrary to the predictions that expected this trip to resolve the remaining differences between the two sides, especially about the Yemen case.

It seems that Riyadh is not willing to accept Abu Dhabi's demands; The demands that emphasize the exclusive transfer of the administration of the southern provinces of Yemen to the UAE. Abu Dhabi considers these provinces as its sphere of influence and its political and military contribution in exchange for its previous partnership with Saudi Arabia as the second partner in the Arab coalition. However, Saudi Arabia examines these demands from a more strategic perspective; Because there is a fear that accepting the influence of the UAE in the south will lead to the loss of Riyadh's remaining levers in the Yemeni equation, without guaranteeing a similar progress in the north of this country.

Despite the difficult situation that Saudi Arabia is facing in Yemen and the country's need to use all available levers, the government of Aden, aligned with Riyadh, continues to accuse Eidros al-Zubaidi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council, of great treason.

On the other hand, the UAE does not have the possibility of directly entering the war alongside Saudi Arabia; Especially, the major international and regional powers do not want to enter this conflict due to the security and strategic risks caused by such an intervention. In addition, the UAE is still struggling with the consequences of the war between Israel and America against Iran, and it is not in Abu Dhabi's interest to enter into another confrontation that will bring heavy costs to this country.

According to the observers, the UAE may decide to directly participate in the war in Yemen only if the United States enters this war and there is a comprehensive plan that guarantees Abu Dhabi's share of the spoils and achievements of the war. This is exactly what happened in 2021; When the UAE returned to Yemen once again at the request of Washington and to defend Marib against the Ansarullah forces; After he officially announced his departure from this country in 2019.

Even at that time, if the UAE's vital facilities were not targeted by Ansarullah forces and these attacks did not pose a direct threat to the country's security and economic growth, it was unlikely that Abu Dhabi would intervene in the Yemeni war again.

Emirati media and southern currents close to Abu Dhabi are still angry at Saudi humiliation.

Currently, the positions of the Emirati media and the networks of the southern currents close to Abu Dhabi show that the country has not yet passed the consequences of what it considers a severe insult from Saudi Arabia; The insult that, according to these streams, occurred at the end of last year with the forced expulsion of the UAE from the southern provinces of Yemen.

Many activists and politicians in southern Yemen also openly express their satisfaction with Riyadh's failures; Both in the management of military operations and in the protection of critical facilities.

For example, Salah bin Laghbar, a writer and activist close to the Southern Transitional Council who resides in Abu Dhabi, wrote in a message on X social network that the more he reads the writings of Saudi experts, including journalists, intellectuals and university professors, the better he understands the reasons for Saudi Arabia's successive failures. He considered the cause of these failures to be "amazing ignorance about Yemen, its land, people, history and society, in addition to superficiality in thinking".

On the other hand, despite the fact that the forces of the "Amalek Brigades" in terms of manpower are mainly composed of Salafi fighters from southern Yemen, especially Lahj province, the literature of the Southern Transitional Council has become stricter in determining the conditions of participation in military operations compared to the previous positions. This council makes the participation of its forces conditional on the defense of the south and its political cause, and is against sending southern fighters to the battles in northern Yemen without receiving points or achievements in return.

In an interview with Sky News Arabic channel, Eidros al-Zubaidi announced that the southern forces have regained control of areas in Al-Madarabah, Bab al-Mandab and Mayon Island. He added that the southerners do not accept the "victory of their forces" to be registered in the name of other parties. He also linked the sacrifices of the southern forces to the goal of forming an "independent and sovereign south".

In such an atmosphere, the Southern Transitional Council is preparing to celebrate the anniversary of the October 14 revolution against British colonialism. This council plans to turn this occasion into a kind of popular referendum about its position and political presence by organizing a large rally in Aden.

This council also hopes to use the large presence of people to send a clear message to Riyadh; A message that the Transitional Council is still a decisive actor in the South Yemeni equation and efforts to marginalize or isolate it will not work.