Iran's oil shipments passing through the US blockade; Reuters' account of the secret export of fuel Where is the destination of Iranian oil shipments?

Despite the intensification of US naval pressure against Iran's oil exports, Safir Arjan's new report shows that some shipments of Iranian oil products still managed to pass the imposed restrictions.

According to Ambassador Arjan, based on this report, at least 9 oil tankers carrying liquefied gas and jet fuel have managed to transfer Iranian cargo since July. An issue that indicates the continued activity of a part of Iran's energy export network, despite extensive restrictions.

In a report by Reuters, quoting four well-informed sources in the field of maritime security and citing ship tracking data, Reuters wrote that in recent weeks, Iran has moved some of its cargoes among oil and oil products from other producers in the Persian Gulf region. These movements were carried out near the coast of Oman and in a situation where America has tried to limit Iran's export routes.

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According to an investigation by an institute, at least eight tankers carrying Iranian liquefied gas have left the Oman Sea since mid-July. The cargo volume of these ships is estimated to be around 4.1 million barrels. Also, satellite images and data from Cymax Maritime Intelligence Institute show that an oil tanker carrying Iranian aircraft fuel arrived in Myanmar in September.

destination of shipments; From Malaysia to the Chinese market

A significant part of Iran's liquefied gas shipments have been transferred to Malaysian waters after crossing the blockade. According to Reuters, these cargoes are likely to be transferred to other tankers through ship-to-ship transfer operations and continue to China.

Ship-to-ship transfer is one of the methods used in maritime trade to move cargo between vessels. Such operations can make it more difficult for observers to identify the true origin of shipments; However, the mere observation of these transfers alone is not sufficient to prove illegal circumvention of restrictions, and the details of each operation must be examined separately.

American claim: The blockade is still in place

On the other hand, the Central Command of the US Army, CENTCOM, has emphasized that the naval blockade of Iran continues. According to the announcement of this organization, the American forces disabled four commercial ships and forced 135 other ships to return in the last three months.

However, a US military official told Reuters that the passage of some ships does not necessarily mean a violation of the blockade or bypassing it; Because a number of vessels are allowed to pass after checking the documents or for humanitarian reasons. This explanation shows that evaluating the success rate of the blockade, in addition to tracking the ships, also depends on the type of cargo and the conditions of passage.

While the Reuters report indicates the continued limited export of some oil products, the situation of Iran's crude oil exports is described differently. According to Kepler Institute data, Iran's crude oil exports reached zero in September; A number that has not been recorded since the beginning of tracking this institution in 2013.

Torbjörn Soltot, senior Middle East analyst at Maplecroft Ventures, also told Reuters that intensifying economic pressures may push Iran to accept more risk for exporting oil products. According to him, airplane fuel can be one of the export options; Because the grounding of more Iranian planes due to sanctions has increased the possibility of increasing the surplus of this product in the country's refineries.

Overall, the Reuters report presents a dual picture of Iran's energy export situation: on the one hand, US restrictions seem to have put severe pressure on crude oil exports, and on the other hand, some oil products continue to reach foreign markets via sea routes. However, the published evidence still does not indicate the return of Iran's crude oil exports to the pre-blockade level.