Iran's 'Chess Game' in the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran's New Strategy to Keep Oil Prices High

Safir Arjan's report, citing Iranian and American officials, holds that Iran, by changing its method of attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and expanding its naval operations, seeks to keep oil prices high and increase pressure on the US government ahead of the Congressional midterm elections.

According to Ambassador Arjan, two senior Iranian officials reported that in recent days, Tehran has changed the way it deals with ships that intend to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without complying with the restrictions announced by Iran.

According to this report, the new strategy started about 10 days ago and includes a change in the type and intensity of attacks against ships that Iran considers violating its restrictions.

An Iranian official stated that the goal of this strategy is to prevent the efforts of the United States and its allies to reduce the global price of oil. According to these two officials, the decision to implement this strategy was taken at the highest levels and different parts of Iran's government are coordinated in its implementation.

Using new methods to identify targets

A US military official also told Reuters that Iran has fundamentally changed its modus operandi, using unarmed observers on small boats to identify potential targets, including US Navy vessels.

According to this official, after the US attacks targeted most of Iran's radar capacity, Tehran has resorted to using this method.

He claimed that last week the American forces identified people who were sending information about possible targets to the Revolutionary Guards from a yacht. After encountering this vessel, American forces ordered its occupants to leave the boat and then destroyed it. There were no casualties in this incident.

This American official also claimed that Iran has not been able to prevent the increase in oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz due to the damage to its naval power and the concern of endangering the remaining high-speed vessels.

In the continuation of its report, Reuters reported an increase in security incidents against commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz region.

According to data from maritime security sources and reports from the British Maritime Trade Operations Center, at least five incidents related to oil tankers and other commercial vessels have been recorded in the area in the past 48 hours, some of which involved drone attacks.

The International Maritime Organization affiliated to the United Nations also announced that the number of these incidents is almost equal to the number of attacks registered between October 3rd and 5th.

A maritime security source told Reuters that the trend appeared to be deliberate, citing the increase in attacks.

These developments occur in a situation where the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, as one of the important routes for the transfer of oil in the world, have intensified the concerns about the increase in the costs of transportation and marine insurance and the instability of the energy markets.

Expanding the scope of operations to the Gulf of Oman

Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran plans to extend the scope of its operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz to include the Gulf of Oman and waters further afield.

Analyzes based on reports received by the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center and information from maritime security companies show that in recent days, incidents against ships have been reported in areas beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including waters near the coasts of Qatar and the UAE.

Referring to the American effort to lower oil prices before the mid-term congressional elections, an Iranian official said: "When they think they are close to a point where prices will decrease, we will push them away from that point." It's a chess game."

He added that ships that violate Iran's restrictions will not be safe even outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran's warning about the restriction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz

Two Iranian officials also claimed that Tehran is trying to create conditions so that no ship that violates Iran's restrictions can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. One of these officials said: "Soon we will see a complete closure."

These statements come at a time when US President Donald Trump has announced that he is considering the next options for Iran, but has said that he will not launch another attack before the mid-term elections.

At the same time, America seeks to increase economic pressure on Tehran by imposing a naval blockade against Iranian ports and expanding sanctions.

The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center, led by the US Navy, also declared the level of threat against commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz as "severe" in its report on Sunday.

This center announced the continuation of attacks, attempted attacks and harassment against commercial ships and pointed to cases such as drones flying near vessels, monitoring ships and communicating via wireless.

Reuters has reported that increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of expanding the scope of naval operations have made efforts to return maritime traffic to normal more difficult.