From the Strait of Hormuz to the banks of the region; Is the American pressure circle around Iran getting tighter?
The escalation of military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the unprecedented escalation of "economic exclusion" by Washington, and the leap of readiness in Tel Aviv, have put the fragile agreement in Islamabad on the verge of complete collapse. While conflicting narratives about the naval attacks reveal internal divisions and mutual warnings, it is feared that the new round of confrontation will go beyond military friction and bring the vital arteries of Iran's economy and the global energy market into a
Tensions between Iran and the United States are on the rise now, and the developments of the past 24 hours show that the pattern of confrontation is rapidly changing from an indirect and controlled conflict to a mixed, comprehensive and high-risk conflict. The extensive military movements in the strategic waterways, the unprecedented escalation of financial and banking pressures by Washington, along with the adoption of aggressive war formations and clear warnings from the military commanders and diplomats of both sides, all testify to the bitter reality that the fragile achievements of the "Islamabad Memorandum" have been exposed to decay more than ever before.
One of the most worrying and acute centers of crisis in recent hours has been the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding areas in the Sea of Oman. The reliable reports received show that the container ship JFS Pride under the flag of Singapore suffered a severe fire after being hit by heavy projectiles and finally sank off the coast of Oman. Although all 21 crew members of the vessel were saved, the news that the containers and their debris were scattered in one of the world's most important shipping lines has sent a major shock to the shipping and energy markets. At the same time, the public relations of the Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran announced the identification and similar incidents for two other oil tankers and stated that the reason for this was turning off the tracking systems and entering the "forbidden areas".
Regarding the why and how of the "JFS Pride" incident, two completely conflicting and conflicting narratives have been formed. The Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, without mentioning the name of this vessel, has announced that an offending ship has collided with sea mines due to entering an unauthorized route. However, the American Central Command (CENTCOM) issued an official statement and categorically denied the claim of hitting a mine and stated that this vessel was the target of IRGC projectiles. Centcom further emphasized that the main shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz are free of mines and in the last 24 hours, more than 40 commercial vessels with the support of the military patrols of the USS George H. W. Bush" have been able to cross this waterway.
But the political and structural dimensions of this event have had a much wider reflection in the domestic and international environment. The recent words of Sardar Hossein Mohebi, the spokesman of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that the recent attacks on ships after the Islamabad MOU were not an "arbitrary action" at all and were carried out with the full coordination of the hierarchy and higher officials as a decisive response to the violation of the promises of the United States, have raised many doubts. This clear position is exactly opposite to the news that was published in the past days by figures such as Gholamhossein Karbaschi or before that, Masoud Mezikian himself - an apology to the Arab countries for Iran's attacks, which was later accompanied by a retreat. This conflict in positions has strengthened speculations about the existence of a deep gap between official diplomacy and the structure of military operations and shows how far the lack of comprehensive coordination in decision-making centers can provide a platform for the collapse of sensitive regional agreements.
In the international reflection of this crisis, the Guardian newspaper wrote in a comprehensive analysis that the new round of missile and drone attacks in the Persian Gulf indicates that the parties are entering a "dangerous war of erosion in the waterways"; A war whose purpose is to disrupt energy arteries in order to apply political pressure. On the other hand, GapCapitan, a specialized maritime base, has assessed that despite the extensive patrols of Western forces, the security level of commercial navigation in the Persian Gulf has reached its lowest level in recent months, and there is a possibility that other countries in the region will directly enter this conflict at any moment.
war and economic blockade; The new composition of the US treasury
While shipping in the Persian Gulf faces military threats, the United States has dramatically expanded the scope of the second front of the conflict, the "full-scale economic war." According to the official report of Ambassador Arjan, the Central Bank of Lebanon, in an unprecedented decision and under the direct pressure of Washington and Scott Bessant, the Secretary of Finance and Treasury of the United States, canceled the license of "Sadaret Bank of Iran" in this country. American officials have stated the reason for this action is the accusation of facilitating financial transfers related to the Lebanese Hezbollah group. This decision deals a heavy blow to Iran's foreign banking network and blocks one of the most important financial breathing channels in the region.
At the same time, Ambassador Arjanpress and CNN reported that the US Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Prevention Network has alerted all international financial institutions to the trickery ways to circumvent sanctions in a global warning titled "Operation Economic Denial". Based on this warning, Washington has claimed that the Iranian government uses the funds paid for Khums and donations collected by the network of religious charities throughout the Shiite world to finance its activities, and these properties are moved through unofficial ways such as "Hawale" and cash transfers. The US Treasury has requested the blocking and quick reporting of these transactions by providing smart indicators.
In addition, the US Treasury has announced that it has thwarted Iran's attempts to infiltrate the international financial system through an Iraqi bank supporting militant groups. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, by adopting a rather harsh and threatening language, openly declared: "The economic siege of the Islamic Republic is getting tighter day by day, and even the so-called allies of this country will not be able to save it." The US Treasury will not take a step back until all remaining financial and income resources to support Iran's war machine are cut off and the government's coffers are not emptied. These words clearly show that Washington has put the strategy of "completely cutting off the vital arteries of the economy" on its definite agenda.
Israel Hume analysts believe that one of the main scenarios on the table in Washington and Tel Aviv is the implementation of point and crushing attacks by the United States against Iran's radar systems, missile launchers and surveillance positions along the coast of the Persian Gulf in order to reopen the navigation lines of the Strait of Hormuz.
The highest alert level in Tel Aviv
The intensification of Iran's military movements and powerful maneuvers has been accompanied by an immediate reaction and the adoption of a completely warlike arrangement in Israel. According to the exclusive report of the Israel Hume newspaper, following the successful firing of 30 ballistic missiles during the recent exercise of the IRGC, the Israeli army has put all its forces on different fronts on full alert and has prepared itself for the scenario of a "targeted and preemptive attack on Iran".
Israel Hum analysts believe that one of the main scenarios on the table of Washington and Tel Aviv is the implementation of point and crushing attacks by the US against Iran's radar systems, missile launchers and observation positions along the coast of the Persian Gulf in order to reopen the navigation lines of the Strait of Hormuz. The assessment of Israel's security institutions shows that although such attacks may not have direct consequences for Israel in the first step, if Iran retaliates and rebuilds its missile systems, the possibility of the scope of the war being extended to the infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries and a full-scale direct conflict will be very high.
On the other hand, the positions of Iran's senior military and political officials indicate that the country has prepared itself for the most difficult possible scenarios, i.e. a "full-scale combined war". Sardar Hassan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Tehran Corps, emphasized that the armed forces are at the peak of combat, defensive and offensive readiness, and noted that the experiences gained from the past 12-day and 40-day wars have been transformed into modern operational ideas and tactics.
In this regard, Major General Hatami, the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, issued a sharp and clear warning by stating that the Strait of Hormuz is under the full supervision and control of the army and the IRGC and that no enemy vessel has been able to enter the Oman Sea. He declared: "Many bases and eyes of the enemy have been damaged and weakened. However, if Iran's vital infrastructures are threatened or attacked, the infrastructures of the Zionist regime and any country that provides its territory or facilities to them will be the target of our decisive strikes. Also, Brigadier General Jahanshahi, the commander of the army's ground forces, announced the restlessness of the units and the huge logistical movements in the entire border strip, which, according to him, the think tank has ruled out any land aggression.
At the same time as these military formations, the country's diplomats are also trying to convey the completion of the necessary documents to the neighbors. Kazem Gharibabadi, the legal deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, clearly stated at the SICA summit in Baku that no country should provide its territory, airspace or bases for military aggression to America or Israel. He emphasized that sustainable security in Asia is not achieved through pressure and threats, but through mutual respect, but Iran will give a strong response to any aggression. Also, by sending messages to the region, including Yemen, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the stability of regional ties.
Nevertheless, Major General Yazidi, the deputy commander of the IRGC, pointed out that the enemy is trying to create "Shaab Abi Talib" conditions for Iran, but if internal unity is maintained, he will not do anything.
The summary of the developments, the positions of the parties and the reports presented in the media show that the current situation in the Persian Gulf has reached a boiling point. Statements by White House officials that Donald Trump has "kept all options on the table" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and to push it back, along with clear answers and sending aggressive signals from Tehran, have minimized the area of diplomacy.
It is obvious that swimming against the current of diplomacy and relying solely on rigid approaches, while the country's economic arteries are subjected to "complete rejection" one after another, brings irreparable risks to the country's future. Experience has shown that without a stable and transparent agreement that is subject to the consensus of all internal decision-making elements, "temporary understandings" such as the one obtained in Islamabad, will be highly vulnerable to the first sparks in the field.
The fact is that the insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz targets the people's security more than anything else, and the only way out of this super crisis is full coordination between diplomacy and the field, and efforts to truly cancel the crippling economic pressures.