Attack on Iran with the 'Mother of All Bombs' / Pentagon's Controversial Option Against Iran

CNN, citing several American officials, claimed the US military has drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran.

The use of the GBU-43/B bomb called "Massive Air Blast Ammunition" (the mother of all bombs), which is the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, for the first time in the war with Iran, will mean a significant escalation of conflicts. However, several sources familiar with internal military discussions about the possibility of using this weapon have said that there are serious doubts about how effective the bomb will be in achieving Trump's stated strategic goals or changing the balance of the war.

Trump is under pressure to end this deeply unpopular war; A conflict that Republicans are worried about on the eve of the upcoming mid-term elections about its possible political consequences and the negative reaction of the voters. On the other hand, after more than six months of US bombing, there are few signs that the two countries are close to reaching a negotiated solution.

While the U.S. military continues to provide Trump with various options for possible attacks on remaining targets in Iran, some officials continue to question in private circles whether the White House has a strategy that includes these plans in a way that could actually end the war. A decision that can only be taken by the president.

Over the past months, Trump and his advisers have explored options that could be presented as a "definitive" end to the war, at least in terms of media coverage and presentation. They are aware of how unpopular the conflict has become with Americans.

While some figures in the US government have described the war as practically won, Trump has been more cautious in his recent statements. He refused to declare victory and said that Washington still has unfinished business in Iran.

Behind the scenes, Trump has also expressed skepticism about some foreign allies who have encouraged him to simply bring US troops back home and move on. He has argued that such an action will be seen as a failure.

Over the past few weeks, White House advisers have held meetings to consider various options regarding Iran. Trump has said in public that he won't take any new action before the midterm elections, but several of his advisers have said in private conversations that they don't know if that is a definitive decision or could change before Election Day.

An informed person told CNN that Trump has ordered the military to develop new operational packages to attack Iranian targets; The plans include targeting "a large portion of the energy infrastructure" and the possibility of using the mother of all bombs.

The source also said that the phrase used to describe the timing of the attack was: "Before the withdrawal of American forces from the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) area of ​​responsibility." This phrase suggests that the US government may launch additional attacks, try to declare victory, and then withdraw all its forces from the region in a short period of time.

In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack this region. America and Israel believe that Tehran has kept parts of its nuclear program in this place. Trump has made these threats even after he halted full-scale military operations earlier this year. He continues to emphasize that his goal is to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. Tehran has repeatedly emphasized that its nuclear program is peaceful and has no intention to build an atomic bomb.

Doubts about the effectiveness of the bomb, the mother of all bombs

Another US official noted that when planning, the military develops a set of options for political decision makers, ranging from maximum options to minimum options. Attacking higher-priority targets, including those deep in the ground, requires larger bombs, the official added, and the "mother of all bombs" is the largest bomb in this category.

However, there are doubts about whether the mother of all bombs will be an effective munition for use against Iran's nuclear facilities and other sites located deep underground. The GPS-guided bomb would be capable of destroying an area the size of nine city blocks, but likely would not be capable of penetrating deep enough underground to destroy the Klang nuclear facility, which is believed to be fortified with layers of granite, as well as Iran's remaining nuclear sites, the sources said.

A third source familiar with the discussions regarding Iran's military planning told CNN: "The mother of all bombs is a weapon that is designed above all to carry out a massive demonstration and psychological operation and is suitable for clearing very large areas, but has little use beyond that." This bomb was definitely not designed as a depth-penetrating warhead.

Informed sources noted that if used, the mother of all bombs would leave a devastating impact on the area it hits, but its destruction would likely be mostly limited to the surface. They added that the bomb's extremely wide blast radius would almost certainly raise concerns about possible civilian casualties; Especially if it is used to target Iranian infrastructure near residential areas and adjacent to civilian sites.

However, Trump may decide to use the mother of all bombs as a psychological weapon; That too in a situation where it seems that the Iranian government has strengthened its position and is not ready to give in to his demands. American officials warn that the use of this bomb is unlikely to force Iran to surrender or lead to a strategic military victory, but the move could give Trump another option to change the situation on the battlefield without resuming full-scale military operations.

"Unfortunately, the president of the United States has put himself in a position where he almost has to do something," added the third source, who was familiar with the recent discussions about military planning. When you don't have ammo designed to penetrate that deep, you have to think about the psychological effects; An area for which the mother of all bombs is perfectly suited.

Many people in the US government, as well as analysts outside the government, agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran is to carry out a large-scale operation with the participation of ground forces, which could cost thousands of American lives. The Pentagon examines all possible scenarios, and for that reason, such plans exist; But at the moment, no one in the US government wants to take such an extreme and widespread action.

Trump has shown that he is not interested in sending US ground forces to Iran; However, his desire to end the conflict as quickly as possible has left the president with a political dilemma. He is well aware of how unpopular the war has become, but has so far been unable to reach a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict.

CNN has reported that senior Trump administration officials and military planners have been focused on finding a way out of the war in recent weeks; A way to provide at least a "symbolic" victory for Trump to present to the American people, without hindering a possible diplomatic opening. These efforts have been started with the aim of reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A fourth source familiar with recent Pentagon discussions about planning for Iran told CNN that military officials have drawn up several options that would amount to a "firework show" in practice. The purpose of these options is to provide a way for Trump to exit the conflict; Even if these attacks fail to achieve the goals that the White House initially announced to justify the start of the war.

Despite Trump's recent pledge to refrain from further strikes ahead of the midterm elections, the U.S. military already appears to be preparing for a possible Iranian retaliation—one that could happen if the president orders a strike.

According to a fifth source, who is a US official, the next periodic transfer and replacement of US forces stationed at US Central Command (CENTCOM) is also expected to take place in the next few weeks. This official admitted that there is a possibility that some of the forces whose mission period ends in the region and leave there, will not be replaced by fresh forces.

Asked by CNN about the plans, a White House official said the agency does not comment on sensitive military plans — which may or may not exist. He added that "President Trump is keeping all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon."

In response to CNN's request for comment, a Pentagon official said: "The Department of War plans for a wide range of operational scenarios to implement the orders of the President and Secretary of War and ensure mission success in any type of operational environment."

The "Mother of All Bombs" is designed for "psycho-operations".

Developed during the Iraq War, the "Mother of All Bombs" is a type of warhead that detonates before hitting the ground to send a massive explosion in all directions.

During the final stages of testing the bomb in 2003, military officials told CNN that the bomb was designed primarily as a weapon for use in "psychological operations."

Military officials said at the time that they hoped an explosion of such a large scale would terrify Iraqi forces and pressure them into surrendering or even refusing to fight.

According to the original plan, the mother of all bombs was to be used against large concentrations of troops and military equipment or fortified shelters built on the ground. But the range of targets for this bomb has expanded and now includes targets buried under relatively soft layers of the earth, such as caves or tunnels.

Trump was the first US president to order the use of the mother of all bombs. In his first term as president, in 2017, he allowed the military to use the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the United States against ISIS positions in Afghanistan.

The attack targeted a network of fortified underground tunnels that ISIS used to organize and carry out attacks against government forces. Afghan officials announced that 36 ISIS fighters were killed in this attack. Afghan and American officials added at the time that the blast, in addition to destroying weapons and ammunition, also destroyed three underground tunnels, but no civilians were injured.

At the time, the bombing represented a dramatic shift in Trump's approach; The one who supported isolationist foreign policy based on the slogan "America First" during his first election campaign.

After the 2017 attack, US military officials faced questions about the necessity of using this 21,600-pound (about 9,800 kg) bomb for the intended purpose. If these munitions are used against Iran, the US military will likely face similar questions.