Will Moscow guarantee the revival of Islamabad's understanding?

The imminent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran is not considered an isolated event or a common diplomatic compliment, but rather this event is a fundamental link in the series of recent high-level consultations, including the intensive talks in Ashgabat and more importantly, the meeting of Masoud Medeshian with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Nations Summit. It is not bad to evaluate the various dimensions and angles that affect this trip.

Ambassador Arjan-International Group: The imminent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran is not considered an isolated event or a common diplomatic compliment, but this event is a fundamental link in the series of recent high-level consultations, including the intensive negotiations in Ashgabat and more importantly, the meeting of Masoud Medeshian with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Nations Summit. It is not bad to evaluate the various dimensions and angles that affect this trip.

1) At the current critical juncture, when the regional crisis and growing tensions between Iran, America and the provocative movements of the Zionist regime have reached a boiling point, the presence of Moscow's highest diplomatic official in the capital can carry significant geopolitical implications; Especially if we consider the ultimate goal of this trip to play a mediating role to stabilize pending security agreements, specifically the "Islamabad Agreement". To understand the exact dimensions of this trip, however, one must analyze the fragile economic situation of the United States in the current coordinates. The Trump administration is under severe pressure from the consequences of costly confrontational strategies. The sudden jump in fuel prices (so that diesel has gone from low levels of one dollar to critical figures of more than five dollars per gallon) has caused a huge shock to the production structure and supply chain of America. Since the price of gasoline and diesel is considered a reference index in the American economy, its jump has created a wave of increasing inflation and has put the working classes, road transport drivers and farmers on the verge of widespread protests. As some analysts say about the danger of rebellion of the working classes, peasants and the poor in the United States. Green lights such as the liberalization of Russian diesel imports from Washington are an insufficient reward for solving the structural problem. Trump is well aware that without Moscow's support and flexibility, it will be impossible to contain the crisis in Ukraine and reduce oil tensions. Therefore, the White House needs the Kremlin's communication channel to contain its multifaceted crises. This mutual need of Moscow and Washington provides the Russians with a unique bargaining lever to assume the role of balance maker and mediator in other cases, including the containment of the crisis around Iran.

2) One of the biggest challenges and harms of the previous "Islamabad Agreement" was the lack of presence and support of world powers such as China, Russia and Europe in the process of drafting and guaranteeing it. Although countries like Pakistan had a desire for regional de-escalation, but due to the limitation of hegemonic weight, they lacked the necessary mechanisms for sustainable guarantees. On the other hand, the efforts to fully involve Beijing also did not end in tangible results in the Middle East case due to the structural frictions between China and the United States and the empty-handed return of the parties from bilateral consultations. In the meantime, due to its geographical location, having the right of veto in the Security Council and the capacity for mutual bargaining with Washington, Moscow has a higher competence to fill this strategic void. The Kremlin's direct entry into the process of de-escalation and restoration of Islamabad's understanding can provide the executive guarantee needed to curb conflicts. With the aim of separating Russia from the strategic link with China, Washington considers some concessions in the equation scene, and Moscow can spend a part of these exchanges to restore the security balance in the case of Iran and guarantee regional understandings.

3) In the literature of international relations, drawing lines, exercises and increasing the threatening tone on the eve of talks are always a known tool to raise the hand of negotiations in order to score maximum points at the table. The recent verbal confrontation between Iran and America should also be measured with the same lens. Expanding the war and entering into a direct military conflict at this point in time, due to the upcoming political fateful events in America, is never Washington's heart's desire; A full-scale war only serves the interests of extremist factions, especially Israel, who see their survival in burning the region. Accordingly, any extraordinary adventure to test the combat capacity of the opponent is a strategic mistake. Sergei Lavrov's trip to Tehran can play the role of an emergency brake at exactly this critical moment. If active diplomacy can pour water on the fierce fire of radicals, Moscow is able to bring the views of the parties closer to each other. Therefore, the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to Tehran is a promising event; A trip that, if the country's diplomatic system is smart, has the capacity to protect diplomacy from the current impasse and the region from falling into an unwanted war trap by adding an international guarantee to Islamabad's understanding.

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