Kepler says the oil output from Hormuz is less than 3 million barrels per day

The war against Iran, in addition to the military and energy consequences, has severely affected the security of maritime transport and trade in one of the most important passages in the world.

According to Ambassador Arjan, in recent days, images attributed to the cargo of a container ship sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, including iPhone boxes and luxury perfumes, have been widely reflected in domestic social media and some famous international media. Regardless of the exact value of the cargo and details that have yet to be independently verified, the incident provides a stark picture of the economic costs of insecurity on one of the world's most important trade routes. According to the statistics of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), from the beginning of the Iran-imposed war until October 14, 2026, the number of confirmed incidents against ships in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz has reached 113. This statistic indicates the extent of the increase in maritime transportation risks following the war between America and Israel against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

The economic consequences of this insecurity are not limited to damaged ships and lost cargoes. The increase in insurance premiums, transportation fares, the cost of providing security and the possibility of delays in the delivery of goods have increased the cost of oil trade and even indicate the lack of an active fleet in the field of oil transportation. In such a situation, the US government is looking for a way to increase oil carrying capacity and curb the pressure of energy costs on the world market. According to Ambassador Arjan's claim, America is considering canceling the embargo on shadow fleet oil tankers and transferring their ownership to legal operators. An action that shows the depth and dimensions of the global oil crisis.

A sharp drop in the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz

International data from ship monitoring shows that oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly in October, especially in the last week. According to these data, the volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026 increased compared to the first months of the war, but in October, due to the intensification of attacks on ships and the increase in the risk of shipping, the volume of oil passing through has decreased again. According to Kepler Institute, the volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 9.7 million barrels per day in September, the highest monthly level since the start of the Iran war on February 28.

Hormuz Tracker also identified the total volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September as about 40.7 million barrels of oil, which is equivalent to a daily average of about 1.4 million barrels. This figure is significantly different from Kepler's estimate; Because the two sources use different methods and domains to identify and calculate shipments.

According to the data of shipping monitoring institutes, in October, the drop in oil flow has become more severe in some days. According to Kepler data, only about 2.9 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on October 11. While the peak recorded in September was claimed to be around 15.5 million barrels per day. Analysts say that with the intensification of Iran's attacks on offending ships, this situation has worsened in recent days, and although the ship monitoring data has not been published; But we have to wait for a sharp decrease in oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, an event that will bring the volume of oil passing through this sensitive passage to the lowest level in the days after the start of Iran's naval blockade.

According to energy analysts, increasing the cost of insurance and transportation, changing the route of oil tankers and reducing the willingness of ship owners to enter the region, along with intensifying Iran's confrontation with the offending ships, are other issues that have increased the cost of ships and oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Shooting at 113 ships in Iran war

The intensification of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz has had remarkable results. According to the data of reliable international institutions, with the start of the imposed war against Iran, a large number of ships passing through this passage have been hit by unknown projectiles, missiles and drones.

According to the statistics published by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) until October 14, 2026, the number of confirmed incidents against ships in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz has reached 113, and during these incidents, at least 24 sailors have lost their lives. Although it is not clear which countries own these ships, it is clear; These data show that the war against Iran, in addition to the military and energy consequences, has severely affected the security of maritime transport and trade in one of the most important passages in the world.

According to the classification provided by IMO data, oil tankers and ships carrying oil products with 35 ships constitute the largest group damaged by the war, so that out of the total of 113 damaged ships, equivalent to about 31% of them are related to these two sectors of oil and oil products transportation. After that, there are 30 bulk and general cargo ships, 20 container ships, 8 liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) ships, and 20 vessels of other types. In total, 43 vessels related to the transportation of oil, oil products and gas are registered in this list.

From an economic point of view, the registration of these incidents should not be considered equivalent to the definitive departure of 113 ships from the activity cycle. Some of the vessels may still be operational despite the damage or may return to operation after repair. However, the economic effect of these incidents is not limited to the physical damage of ships. The increase in the risk of sea transportation, even without removing the vessels, can significantly increase the cost of oil trade in the Strait of Hormuz.

In such a situation, insurance companies may increase war risk premiums and ship owners may demand higher fares to accept more risk. Change of route, delay in cargo delivery, security costs and the difficulty of securing insurance coverage also add to the final cost of transportation. This pressure is especially important for oil tankers and gas carriers and can increase the cost of delivering energy to consumption markets.

Of course, the registration of the incident alone does not prove the responsibility of Iran or the United States, and the assignment of each case to a specific party requires the examination of independent evidence. However, from an economic point of view, the continuation of maritime insecurity even before the destruction of the transportation capacity will shock the world trade by increasing the insurance and rent of ships.

America seeks to lift the embargo on shadow oil tankers!

The oil transportation crisis following the Iran war and the increase in the risk of crossing the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased the cost of insurance and the rent of oil tankers. At the same time, a significant number of oil and gas transport fleets were either damaged during the Iran war or did not take the risk of crossing this passage.

In such a situation, the US government is looking for a way to increase oil carrying capacity and curb the pressure of energy costs on the world market. According to Ambassador Arjan's claim, America is considering canceling the embargo on shadow fleet oil tankers and transferring their ownership to legal operators. An action that shows the depth and dimensions of the global oil crisis.

According to Reuters, an American official familiar with the negotiations has announced that discussions are underway to lift the embargo on some oil tankers individually. Under the proposal, vessels could transfer their ownership to legal operators and be used to move unsanctioned oil. The purpose of this measure is to increase the flow of oil and reduce the freight rate.

According to Clarksons data, at the beginning of March 2026, the total fleet of oil tankers in the world included 5,934 vessels. Of these, 2,359 ships carried crude oil and 3,575 ships carried petroleum products. Meanwhile, the fleet of very large oil tankers or VLCCs is estimated to be around 913 vehicles.

Kepler says about 160 VLCCs are under US sanctions. This number is equivalent to about 22% of the world's supertanker fleet. Other data, comparing 913 VLCCs in the world, estimates their share of the total fleet to be nearly 17.5%, which seems to be due to the definition and scope of the calculated fleet.

Kepler believes that only a small number of these ships, due to their age and ownership restrictions, and excluding the tankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company, have the potential to return to conventional trade; Therefore, the effect of the American plan will be limited to a small number of ships, and as long as the risk of war and disruption of sea routes continues, lifting the embargo on supertankers alone will not be enough to curb the oil transportation crisis.

International Energy Agency: The crisis is serious

According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), disruption of the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has become one of the important factors in the instability of the global energy market. In its October report, the IEA acknowledges that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical oil transportation routes in the world, and restrictions on its passage have been able to reduce the supply of crude oil and petroleum products and increase the cost of transportation, both of which have led to the intensification of oil and energy price fluctuations. According to the IEA report, the flow of oil through this strait reached an average of 10 million barrels per day in September, which was a sign of the relative recovery of exports. However, the resurgence of insecurity and attacks on ships and energy infrastructure in October cast doubt on the prospects for this trend to continue.

According to the IEA report, the most important consequence of this disruption has been the increase in the risk of supply shortages in the global market. The decrease in oil supply has made the refineries face the problem of supplying their required feed and has caused them to prepare their feed more competitively and the buyers to offer higher prices to receive the available shipments. This situation has been able to increase the price of crude oil and widen the price difference between different types of oil and different regions of the world. Even if actual shortages are not yet widespread, concerns about longer-term disruptions may push prices higher through futures trading and a mere increase in geopolitical risk, the IEA says.

According to the IEA report, the consequences are not limited to crude oil. The decrease or delay in the export of products such as diesel, jet fuel, and liquid petroleum gas has led to an increase in the cost of transportation fuel, industrial production, and energy supply. The increase in the rent of oil tankers, the cost of war insurance and the change of the ship's route have also increased the final price of the cargo. As a result, importing countries are faced with increased inflation, pressure on the trade balance, and higher costs for consumer protection. The report says continued insecurity could make the oil market more sensitive to political and military news, alter the decisions of producers and consumers, and weigh on the global economic growth outlook.

Stabilization of US inflation at high levels

The effects and consequences of the disruption in the global oil markets have not been without cost to the world. In America, where shale oil has revolutionized the oil sector for more than a decade, high energy prices, including gasoline and diesel, have caused the share of energy in the inflationary basket to increase significantly. The latest report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation in this country has reached 3.7% in September 2026. This number, along with the numbers of the months after the Iran war, are all the highest rates since September 2023. This figure was recorded while the annual inflation was 3.4% in August and the consumer price index increased by 0.6% in September compared to the previous month. On the other hand, the monthly growth of this index was reported to be 0.4% in August. This trend shows that US inflation has been stabilized at high levels in recent months and the temporary reduction in price growth has not been able to create a stable path to return to the 2% target of the Federal Reserve.

Examining the monthly changes of the consumer price index from March to September shows a significant fluctuation in price pressures. Monthly inflation was 0.9% in March, 0.6% in April and 0.5% in May. In June, the index fell 0.4 percent, but this trend stopped in July with growth of 0.1 percent. Then the monthly inflation reached 0.4% in August and 0.6% in September; Therefore, the recent increase should be evaluated in the context of the difficulty of sustainably curbing inflation and the return of price pressures after a temporary drop in June.

According to the report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the main reason for the increase in inflation in September was the growth of energy prices. The energy index rose 5.2 percent this month, and gasoline prices rose 9.1 percent, which alone explained more than half of the overall index's monthly growth. On an annual scale, energy prices have increased by 20.4% and gasoline by 34.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding food and energy, reached 2.6 percent, while this figure was 2.4 percent in August. Housing prices also increased by 0.4% in September.

From a monetary policy perspective, continued high inflation makes the Fed's job more difficult. The increase in the cost of energy can be transferred from transportation and production to the price of other goods and delay the reduction of inflation. In such a situation, in order to reduce price pressures, the US central bank must strike a balance between curbing inflation and preventing excessive weakening of economic activity. The September data shows that the return of inflation to the 2% target still faces serious obstacles.

On the other hand, the New York Federal Reserve's September 2026 survey showed US households' one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest level since May 2023. Also, three-year inflation expectations increased to 3.3%, while this index remained constant at 3% for the five-year horizon. According to the report, households expect living expenses, including gasoline, groceries, rent, health care and education, to increase next year. Gasoline prices are expected to increase by 4.8 percent and rents by 6.8 percent, which could make it more difficult to contain inflation.

Perhaps comparing VLCCs with F-35 fighters seems irrelevant at first glance; Because one is the steel giant of the shipping industry and the other is one of the most advanced products of the world's military and aerospace industries. But when it comes to the cost of construction, production time and strategic role, this comparison takes on significant dimensions. The F-35 is a symbol of advanced military technology, from radar systems and stealth equipment to sophisticated electronic networks; On the other hand, VLCCs are an important pillar of the world's energy supply chain and move a large part of the crude oil traded by sea routes. The importance of these supertankers in the world economy, especially in the conditions of war and disruption of shipping routes, is not less than the importance of advanced military equipment.

A recent example of this issue is the Trump administration's attempt to grant embargo exemptions to some VLCCs in these regions.

The data is interesting; A review of international data shows that the price of building a supertanker can be equal to the price of buying an advanced fighter. A VLCC usually has a carrying capacity of about 300,000 to 320,000 deadweight tons. The construction of such a ship, from steel cutting to completion and delivery, takes about 9 to 18 months, depending on the factory and project conditions. Of course, this time is different from the order to delivery time, in a market where the capacity of the factories is filled with multiple orders, waiting for the delivery of a new ship may take several years.

On the other hand, the production of each F-35 is a complex process that takes about 18 months. This period is related to the production process. The production network of this fighter depends on thousands of suppliers, and its construction requires precise coordination between the fuselage, engine, radar, electronic systems and stealth technology.

In terms of price, the market estimate for a new VLCC is around $128-131 million. On the other hand, the basic price of the F-35A fighter is about 92 million dollars, the F-35B model is about 121 million dollars, and the F-35C model is estimated at about 111 million dollars. Therefore, the cost of buying a supertanker is not far from the price of an F-35B or F-35C and is even higher than the price of the F-35A model. Of course, this comparison is only about the purchase cost; The cost of weapons, training, maintenance and operation of the fighter is not calculated in it. However, this data says that in certain circumstances like these days in the oil market, a supertanker carrying crude oil can be as important as an F-35.