From Nuclear War to Drug Resistance: Scientists Identify 17 Threats Facing Humanity
A group of scientists examining the risks of the present century has identified scenarios whose consequences could permanently change the future of humanity.
Throughout history, mankind has survived many wars, epidemics and natural disasters; But is it possible to face a threat in the future from which there is no way to escape? In a new report, a group of 37 international experts have identified 17 catastrophic threats to human health and survival in this century, two of which may even lead to human extinction.
According to Zomit's report, citing IFL Science, after examining hundreds of possible risks, researchers placed 17 cases in the category of catastrophic threats. Among them, nuclear war and malicious use of artificial intelligence are at the highest level of danger. Of course, experts emphasize that the probability of scenarios leading to human extinction is not high; However, their possible consequences are so severe that they cannot be ignored.
Professor Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Assessment and Evaluation and one of the commission's chairmen, says the most important feature of the identified threats is their close relationship with each other. According to him, dealing with such risks requires a coordinated approach and each threat cannot be managed separately.
From nuclear war to artificial intelligence; The most dangerous threats to mankind
For decades, nuclear war has been recognized as one of the most serious threats to human existence. However, some nuclear weapons experts warn that public sensitivity to the threat has waned compared to the Cold War era. On the other hand, artificial intelligence risks are a newer phenomenon. The rapid expansion of this technology has raised important questions about the possibility of misuse of advanced systems and its implications for global security.
Although there is no consensus among researchers about the extent of the existential danger of artificial intelligence, the commission considers the destructive use of this technology, along with nuclear war, as one of the two threats that can potentially lead to the destruction of the human race.
The threats that endanger the future of mankind are not always wars and sudden disasters
However, the report is not limited to these two extreme scenarios. Climate change, air pollution, infectious diseases and microbial resistance are among the risks that threaten the health of millions of people in the coming decades.
One of the important findings of the report is the complex relationship between global crises. For example, climate change is not only associated with an increase in temperature and death due to extreme heat, but it can lead to the spread of diseases and disruption of medical services.
Floods and storms may disrupt the supply of blood and other essential health services. Also, the polluted water left over from the flood can spread dangerous bacteria, and the increase in temperature also provides the conditions for the spread of disease-carrying insects to new areas.
Deforestation is another example of linkage between threats. The destruction of natural habitats exposes humans to more contact with wild animals and increases the possibility of the transmission of disease-causing agents from animals to humans; An event that can lead to new epidemics.
In such situations, microbial resistance complicates the crisis. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and drug-resistant fungi may endanger the lives of millions of people over the next 25 years; Especially if the development of new treatments cannot keep up with the rate of development of drug resistance.
Richard Horton, the editor of the Lancet magazine, believes that in order to deal with the dangers facing humanity, it is necessary to move away from a limited view of individual crises and examine the set of threats in a broader framework.
Two threats with human extinction capacity:
1. Malicious use of artificial intelligence, including for the creation of bioweapons
2. Nuclear war and its wide consequences
2. Microbial resistance to drugs
4. Climate change and global warming
5. Conventional wars and non-nuclear military conflicts
6. Reducing international aid to the health sector
9. Income inequality and economic gap
10. Low level of education and educational deprivation
11. Natural epidemics of infectious diseases
12. Obesity and its related consequences
13. Mental health problems and disorders
15. Unhealthy aging and increasing diseases and disabilities of old age
The researchers emphasize that the inclusion of the selected factors in the list of catastrophic threats does not mean that the severity of the risk or the probability of their occurrence are the same. Also, the fact that the first two threats have the capacity of human extinction does not mean that such a fate will definitely or most likely occur.
The possibility of losing a billion years of healthy life by the end of the century
Researchers have classified them in a pyramid to show the severity of the risks. At the top of this pyramid are nuclear war and destructive use of artificial intelligence. 15 other catastrophic threats are placed at the next level, and in the lower sections, 314 major risks and their related factors are examined.
Unlike nuclear war, threats such as air pollution, obesity, and antimicrobial resistance are quietly progressing and are already threatening the health of millions of people.
The commission's estimate shows that a total of 17 main threats may take the equivalent of one billion years of healthy life from mankind by the year 2100. This estimate is based on the DALY index; A measure used to measure the burden of diseases and health problems. Each DALY unit is equivalent to one year of healthy life lost due to premature death or living with disease and disability.
Of course, the number one billion does not mean the death of one billion people, but it shows the total number of years of healthy life that may be lost. The authors emphasize that such an estimate is based on the scenario of not taking action to contain the threats, and it should not be considered as a definite prediction of the future.
Is it still possible to prevent the disaster?
To reduce the risks, the commission proposes a three-pronged plan based on increasing global preparedness, investing in scientific advances and continuous monitoring of threats.
In the first part, governments should plan to face possible crises and provide necessary financial resources to vulnerable communities. The second part emphasizes the development of vaccines, new medicines and climate-related technologies and their equitable access. The third part is dedicated to the continuous monitoring of risks. According to researchers, without accurate information about the severity and extent of threats, it will not be possible to make effective decisions to deal with them.
The list of 17 threats is not a fixed and immutable ranking. Technological progress, new scientific findings and global developments can change the position of risks in the coming decades.
Many of the identified risks are not inevitable and can be mitigated with appropriate policy, international cooperation and investment in public health.
For example, climate change is not currently a direct threat to extinction, but researchers warn that continued uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases may turn this crisis into an extinction-level threat in the coming centuries.
Natalya Kanem, another head of the commission, says the events of recent years have shown that global stability can turn into crisis very quickly, and that post-disaster response has heavy costs. He also warns that global health threats exacerbate existing inequalities and harm disadvantaged and vulnerable communities the most.
However, the main message of the report is that the future is not predetermined. According to the authors, decisions made by governments and societies today can reduce the severity of many threats of this century.