Meteorological Warning Without Action

A faculty member and head of the Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Research Group at the Natural Hazards Research Institute, stressing that flood risk does not depend solely on the amount of rainfall, said: 'Sometimes people think that if it does not rain heavily where they live, there is no flood risk, while water can flow from highlands or upstream areas toward downstream regions.'

According to Ambassador Arjan's report, according to Ambassador Arjan, autumn rains of Mehr flooded houses and roads in 5 provinces, killed 7 people and caused damage to infrastructure. That too, on the eve of autumn, when forecasts indicate the strengthening of the El Nino phenomenon and the possibility of changing rainfall patterns. Now, on the eve of the International Day for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction (October 13) with the slogan "Resilience begins at home", the main question is why do floods surprise us every time?

The faculty member and director of the Meteorological Risks Research Group of the Natural Disasters Research Institute continues by emphasizing that the risk of flooding does not depend only on the amount of rain: "Sometimes people think that if the rain is not heavy in their place of residence, there is no risk of flooding, while water can move from the heights or upstream points to the downstream areas. "The experience of past floods shows that the risk is higher in places that have had a history of flooding or river flooding, but over time, with the continuation of droughts, the passage of water has been limited and settlements and infrastructures have been exposed to the flood flow." Fateme Falahati says: "In new crisis management approaches, effective warning is not just telling people that heavy rain is coming. It should be determined which areas are at risk and what consequences may occur so that people have enough time to get away from the danger.

If areas exposed to danger are identified and warnings are issued on time, one question still remains: why issuing warnings does not always lead to damage reduction? The head of the Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences of the Iran Meteorological Organization, emphasizing that no forecast in the world is 100% accurate, says: "A significant part of the damage caused by floods is not related to the forecast error and goes back to the increased vulnerability of the land. Encroachment and occupation of riverbeds, change of land use, reduction of water carrying capacity and unbalanced development have caused rains that were not crisis-causing in the past to become destructive floods today, a clear example of which is the destructive flood in Imamzadeh Dawood." Ebrahim Fatahi considers the lack of mandatory mechanisms to use meteorological warnings as one of the most important challenges of crisis management and adds: "Warnings are issued, But it is not clear what action each level of warning requires from which agency."

Determining specific tasks for each level of warning, determining the deadline for the responsible bodies to act and publishing a performance report after each incident can enable the evaluation of this chain; From the time of issuing a warning to informing the people and implementing preventive measures. The director of the research group of weather and meteorological hazards of the Natural Disaster Research Institute believes that the main responsibility for prevention rests with the responsible institutions and people cannot be expected to compensate for the risk caused by improper construction, blockage of waterways or weak infrastructure by following individual recommendations. However, people can reduce the possibility of damage by taking some simple measures, including avoiding unnecessary travel to mountainous areas, avoiding watching the flow of river and canal water, and identifying safe exit routes. Falahati reminds that the upcoming autumn should be considered as an opportunity to measure the country's readiness; The measure of success is not how many warnings we have issued, the measure is whether the warnings reached the people on time. Are dangerous routes secured? Have preventable losses and damages been prevented or not?

Due to its geographical location and diverse climatic conditions, our country is exposed to many natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, droughts, land subsidence and landslides. With 53 known hazards in Iran, what determines the amount of casualties and damages of natural hazards is more than the hazards themselves, the quality of prevention, compliance with construction regulations, infrastructure security, and the readiness of responsible institutions.

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