Riyad's miscalculation Ben Salman's dream under the fire of Yemeni missiles; How did the sheet come back?

Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, wanted to turn his country into a hub for attracting investment, tourism and hosting the world's biggest sporting events, but now drones and missiles fired from Yemen are targeting Saudi cities and pushing the country further into a regional crisis that the crown prince hoped to avoid.

According to Ambassador Arjan's report, quoted by CNN, Yemen's civil war flared up again this summer and intensified last month. An event that ended a few years of relative peace. During the past 11 years, Saudi Arabia has tried to contain the conflicts on its southern borders by resorting to military power and diplomacy; He first fought with the Houthis, then pursued peace negotiations with them and resumed diplomatic relations with Tehran.

However, experts say, a series of miscalculations has left Riyadh vulnerable to a new round of conflict. Late last year, Saudi Arabia ended its long-standing cooperation with the UAE; The dispute stemmed from Abu Dhabi's support for a rival force in Yemen. Riyadh also overestimated Donald Trump's willingness to support himself.

These developments occur in a situation where multilateral attacks on oil infrastructure have disrupted Saudi exports, canceled or delayed major projects in the country, and put pressure on the economic plans of Mohammed bin Salman. According to Saudi officials, Houthi attacks on several Saudi airports this week have left at least three dead, including a Saudi pilot.

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Michael Ratney, the former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told CNN: "They just wanted to keep the conflict as far away from Saudi Arabia as possible and the Houthis not to disrupt the country's transformation plans; But now they are in the middle of the crisis.

Saudi Arabia's airstrike on a shipment of military vehicles sent by the UAE to support separatist forces in the Southern Transitional Council last year shattered a decade-long alliance between the two countries. With the departure of UAE forces, Saudi Arabia had to deal with the consequences of this crisis alone.

According to a Yemeni official in the south of the country, the departure of the Emirates created a vacuum in the command of the forces that operated under the management of Abu Dhabi for years. He emphasized that the transfer of responsibility to Saudi Arabia was not done properly and Riyadh could not establish the same level of coordination and command.

Inadequate preparation against the Houthis

Eight weeks after the departure of the UAE, the American-Israeli war against Iran began. These developments brought the region into a wide crisis and exposed Saudi Arabia to Iranian attacks.

In July, Iran sent a civilian plane to transport a delegation of Houthis. Saudi Arabia attacked the airport under the control of the Houthis in Sana'a to prevent the plane from landing. The Houthis also announced the end of the ceasefire, put the naval blockade of Saudi ships on the agenda and started a rapid operation along the coast of Yemen.

In addition, Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and pipelines disrupted the transfer of crude oil and increased prices. Saudi forces also carried out hundreds of airstrikes.

Ahmad Naji, the senior analyst of the International Crisis Group on Yemen affairs, said that Saudi Arabia was not prepared for the Houthi invasion and had not established the necessary coordination with its allied Yemeni forces. He added that the advance of the Houthis has weakened the morale of Riyadh's allies and the advanced weapons of this group now threaten more cities in Saudi Arabia.

Trump; An unpredictable alliance

Experts say that relying too much on American support was another calculation mistake of Saudi Arabia. Despite the signing of a new defense agreement with Washington, Riyadh is worried about the reduction of the American commitment to its security.

According to CNN, Mohammed bin Salman spoke to Trump twice last month and asked him to target the Houthis, but the US president refused to intervene. Washington instead negotiated with the Houthis in Oman to maintain its ceasefire with the group.

Retni believes that the Saudi army is based on cooperation with the United States and is not designed to fight independently in such conflicts. According to him, the unpredictability of Trump's decisions has made Riyadh feel alone in the face of threats.

In response, Saudi Arabia has expanded cooperation with Egypt, France, Britain, Turkey and Pakistan. Also, more than 100 American military advisers have been stationed in Saudi Arabia to provide information and help determine targets.

A regional solution is still out of reach

Experts warn that foreign support and initial victories by Yemeni government forces alone are not enough to end the war. The differences between the armed groups and the lack of a clear vision for Yemen's political future still persist.

According to analysts, as long as the war between America and Iran continues, Tehran will have a strong incentive to use the capacity of the Houthis to put pressure on Saudi Arabia. A diplomatic solution between the countries of the Persian Gulf and Iran or the escalation of military attacks against the Houthis are among the upcoming scenarios; But none of them will guarantee the end of the war in Yemen in the short term.

Saudi Arabia has to find a difficult and incomplete path to overcome the crisis; A crisis that has now challenged the regional and economic plans of Mohammad bin Salman.