IMF Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast for Gulf States / Middle East and North Africa Only Region Whose Economy Will Contract This Year / Economy to Rebound Strongly Next Year If Strait of Hormuz Reopens by March / Oman, Whose Ports Lie Outside the Strait, Only Gulf Economy Still Expected to Grow in 2026

The IMF has lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for Persian Gulf countries and now expects the Middle East and North Africa to be the only region of the world whose economy shrinks this year. In April, the fund still projected that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would see economic growth.

Semaphore wrote: The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast for the Persian Gulf countries in 2026 and now expects the Middle East and North Africa to be the only region in the world whose economies will shrink this year. In April, the fund still predicted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would experience economic growth.

However, the economic performance of these two countries is still expected to be better than Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. The Emir of Qatar announced today that the government's revenues have decreased by 42% in the first half of this year.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the option of transporting crude oil to the Red Sea and Fujairah through pipelines and alternative routes, without crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

The International Monetary Fund expects the region's economy to face a significant leap next year; But the realization of this prediction is conditional on the strait of Hormuz being gradually reopened from March. This date has been postponed by the fund.

Oman, whose ports lie outside the Strait of Hormuz, is the only Gulf economy still expected to grow in 2026. However, the country's economic growth is expected to almost halve next year; While the economy of Qatar and Kuwait will be revived with a growth of more than 17%.

Chart: Change in GDP forecast from April 2026 to October 2026.