New York Times Analysis: Hormuz Brings Geography Back to the Forefront / Strait Proves Two Hypotheses Wrong / What Lies Ahead?

The blockage of trade routes in the Persian Gulf has reminded the world that forces of geography's power, or even greater, exist that technology and globalization cannot eliminate.

The New York Times wrote: The blocking of trade routes in the Persian Gulf has reminded the world that there are factors as powerful as geography or even more powerful than that, which technology and globalization cannot eliminate.

According to the selection report, this article continues: For decades, we have lived in a world that seemed to have transcended geographical limits.

Information, money, goods, pathogens and weapons have been able to overcome the distance limitation. Confidential information and billion dollar rewards are exchanged instantly. Smartphones, tangerines and sandals are delivered from the other side of the world to your doorstep. Ballistic missiles can also cross continents in minutes.

But the economic turmoil caused by the blocking of only one vital shipping and energy transfer route in the Persian Gulf has challenged these everyday assumptions.

The conflict in the Middle East, which started seven months ago with the attacks of the US and Israel on Iran, has increased the price of energy. The war has also contributed to rising interest rates, disrupting factory production around the world, jeopardizing agricultural crops and igniting angry protests from Syria to Guatemala.

Geography is back on the scene with a bang.

Shannon O'Neill, Senior Vice President for Studies and Chair of the Morris R. Greenberg said at the American Council on Foreign Relations, "When we think about the global economy or the modern economy, we often forget about its basic infrastructure and its so-called plumbing; It means logistics and the chain of goods transfer. "Goods still have to get from one point to another."

Conflicts and climate change have caused disruption

Countries and armed groups that do not even reach the United States in terms of military, technological or economic power, have been able to hold the world economy hostage to some extent; Simply because they are in a certain geographical location.

Iran disrupted the traffic of ships in the Strait of Hormuz; The only maritime route to the Persian Gulf and the world's most important energy bottleneck. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen have taken control of another critical transit passage, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the narrow southern entrance to the Red Sea.

These crises are yet another urgent reminder that critical transit routes, including the South China Sea and the Suez Canal, continue to have an enormous influence on global trade and, therefore, on the well-being of tens of millions of people.

At the same time, the strategic and economic geography of the world is changing under the influence of climate change; Changes that disrupt centuries-old passages and open new paths on the surface of the planet.

This summer, drought lowered the levels of waterways such as the Rhine and Danube rivers in Europe, disrupting freight transport, raising shipping costs and limiting industrial production. This situation also threatened the electricity flow in Hungary and Romania; Two countries that use river water to cool the reactors of their nuclear power plants.

In Latin America, the authorities of the Panama Canal, through which about 40% of the container traffic of the United States passes, restricted the traffic of ships due to the lowering of the water level, which was aggravated by the El Niño phenomenon.

Thousands of kilometers to the north, Chinese shipping companies have recently taken advantage of warmer waters to launch the first regularly scheduled trade route across the Arctic Ocean. This development can intensify the strategic competition with the United States; An issue that is also highlighted by US President Donald Trump's efforts to take over Greenland.

This summer's drought has reduced the water levels of waterways such as the Rhine, disrupting freight transport, raising shipping costs and limiting industrial production.

The world order after the war is broken

Geography has always been an influential force in global relations. In the 5th century BC, Sparta cut off Athens' grain supply route during the Peloponnesian War by controlling the Dardanelles.

However, in our generation's lifetime and since globalization accelerated in the 1990s, technology has often marginalized geography.

But that international order was based on a vision of global cooperation with mutual and military interests based on rules and regulations; An order that is now being eroded.

Confrontation and coercion have become common approaches, not options to be used only as a last resort. Even the trust among the allies has been lost.

Trump's speech at the United Nations last month could be seen as an ode to that optimistic post-war outlook. He said about his decision to seize Venezuela's oil reserves: "The spoils belong to the victor"; A sentence that shows his approach based on winning and losing in global relations.

Trump has obviously accelerated the collapse of the post-war order, but the roots of this process run deeper.

The same networks that made globalization so successful also created new vulnerabilities and power imbalances.

Image: A refinery in the distance, against a darkening sky.

An oil refinery in Venezuela. In his speech at the United Nations, US President Donald Trump said, referring to his decision to seize Venezuela's oil reserves: "The spoils belong to the victor."

In the era of intensive globalization that began in the 1990s, the United States and China, for example, increasingly relied more on controlling economic bottlenecks than physical crossings.

America has used its dominance over the global financial system to punish its enemies; including by freezing assets or cutting off access to business transactions. China has also put pressure on its competitors by using its rare metal reserves.

So perhaps it is not so surprising that weaker powers also seek to find their own pressure points. In the case of Iran, this is the pressure point of geography.

Edward Fishman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iran never came close to closing the Strait of Hormuz in the 2000s and 2010s, when it was under heavy sanctions.

"I think it shows how far we've moved away from the globalization model," said Fishman, a former diplomat. To the extent that even geographical features become weapons. I think this trend will continue in the future."

Violent confrontation is only one of the methods. Another method is financial pressure. Iran has asked ship owners to pay for crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

"In many ways, that's what Iran is fighting for now," Fishman said. The ability to earn money from trade and the passage of goods.

This threat has raised questions about open access to the world's waterways; A right that has been taken for granted since the end of World War II.

The United States has effectively served as the guarantor of freedom of navigation, but its willingness to continue playing that role has waned, while other powers have grown more emboldened to challenge it.

China continues to assert its power in the waters around Taiwan and by sending naval patrols, it demonstrates its claims about the waters surrounding this island.

Ukraine and Taiwan are located in critical geographical positions

Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and the author of the book "Perspectives of Power: Geography and the Rise and Fall of Nations", believes that ignoring geography is the result of political short-sightedness.

"For the last 30 years or so, we have been operating under two false assumptions," Brands said. The first assumption was that the competition of competing powers for influence is no longer relevant. This assumption was related to the second assumption; That innovation has practically eliminated geography and the limitations that come from it.

He noted that Ukraine has been a point of conflict for generations due to its important geographical location in Eurasia. This country is the connecting point of European and Asian powers and has Black Sea ports and very fertile agricultural lands.