Where Democrats and Republicans Stand in the Midterm Elections

There is less than a month left until the mid-term elections. Mid-term elections will be held this year for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. What determines the fate of elections are swing districts (House of Representatives) and swing states (Senate).

Compared to the last two months (previous update), the situation of the Democrats has improved. The Democratic Party not only leads in the average polls of all seven swing states, but also makes the Republican state of Kansas competitive and has a slight lead there. In addition, Democratic or independent candidates have also strengthened in the three Republican states of Nebraska, Florida and South Carolina, although Republican candidates remain ahead. The Republican state of South Dakota was also at risk for an independent candidate for a while; But now the Republicans have a stable situation and they can be considered victorious. The state of the polls in the eleven mentioned states (8 swing + 3 Republican states at risk) is as follows:

Despite the results of the polls, two points should be noted. First, in recent years, American polls have often underestimated Republican votes. Second, one should consider scenarios of better or worse conditions for Democrats as a result of America's inflationary situation. Therefore, the result of the Senate elections will be explained in three scenarios:

A completely optimistic scenario for the Democrats: Republican defeat in all the mentioned states as a result of rampant inflation and worsening economic problems of the American people.

Realistic scenario: current state of the polls, assuming about a 2% underestimation of the polls in the Republican state

Pessimistic scenario for Democrats: higher polling error underrepresenting Republicans plus lower fuel prices

In this scenario, the Republicans would hold the majority; Because in a situation of equal voting, the President of the Senate - who is the Vice President - gets the right to vote.

The state of the House of Representatives elections

One of the ways to measure the state of the House of Representatives elections is to check the polls that are taken from all the American people. Average public opinion polls show that 49% of the American people intend to vote for the Democratic Party and 41% for the Republican Party in the midterm elections. This gap of 8% indicates the high chances of the Democrats to win the majority in the House of Representatives.

Achieving the majority in the parliament requires at least 218 seats. According to the average of all electoral models, now the Democrats have taken over 220 seats and the Republicans have taken over 200 seats. The status of 15 seats is also unclear. The Decision Desk site has evaluated the situation 235 to 200 in favor of the Democrats and the FiftyPlusOne site has evaluated the situation 235 to 193 (7 seats of uncertain status).

In the betting markets, the situation of the Democrats is much better. On the Kalshi site, the Democrats have a 90% chance of winning the majority in the parliament, and on PolyMarket, they have a 91% chance. From now on, the Democrat can be considered the winner of the House of Representatives.