AI Drives China's Economy / China's Trade Surplus Tops $938 Billion

Rising Chinese exports have deepened the economy's reliance on foreign trade while escalating Beijing's trade tensions with key partners such as the European Union, pushing China's trade surplus to $938.1 billion.

The increase in China's exports has made the country's economy more dependent on foreign trade and at the same time has increased Beijing's trade tensions with important partners such as the European Union and brought China's trade surplus to $938.1 billion.

According to Ambassador Arjan, China's exports in September increased by 36.3% in terms of dollar value compared to the same period last year; The growth shows that foreign trade continues to play an important role in supporting the country's economy, while at the same time heightening the concerns of Beijing's trading partners about increasing imports of Chinese goods.

China's export growth in September surpassed August's 25 percent increase and was well above the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg. These economists had predicted a 25.7 percent growth for China's exports. The boom in electronic shipments related to artificial intelligence was one of the main factors of this increase.

This sharp growth is the largest increase in China's exports since January and February 2021; When the country's exports increased by 60.2% during the Corona epidemic. Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, China publishes statistics for the months of January and February in aggregate form.

The increase in exports made China's trade surplus reach 938.1 billion dollars in the first 9 months of 2026; While this figure was about 875.1 billion dollars in the same period of 2025. If this trend continues, China may surpass its record annual trade surplus, which reached about $1.2 trillion last year.

The significant growth of China's exports has increased the concern of the country's trading partners. These countries are concerned that cheap Chinese goods will saturate their markets, creating unequal competition with domestic producers and leading to job losses.

Meanwhile, China's dollar-denominated imports rose 31 percent in September from a year earlier. This figure was 28.2% in August and exceeded the forecast of 25% growth by economists. The increase in oil prices has increased the cost of China's imports.

Two groups of goods related to artificial intelligence, chips and automatic data processing machinery and their parts, accounted for 17.9 percent of China's total exports in September, Financial Times calculations show. These goods alone accounted for 13 percent of China's export growth; While their share in August export growth was 11.3 percentage points.

The publication of these statistics took place in the context that Beijing and Brussels reached an agreement last week on the application of quotas for the import of Chinese hybrid cars. China's trade surplus with the European Union had reached about 1 billion euros per day in 2025 and increased after that. Cars and machinery have been one of the most important factors of this trade surplus.

This statistic also shows China's increasing dependence on exports to compensate for the weakness of the domestic economy; An economy that has faced weak demand after a prolonged housing market recession.

China's economy grew by only 4.3% in the second quarter of 2026; One of the country's lowest seasonal growth rates in recent decades, which was lower than the government's annual growth target range of 4.5 to 5 percent. China is scheduled to release the economic growth statistics for the third quarter on Monday.

China's trade has provided a "significant boost to world trade and economic growth" in the first nine months of the year, said Wang Jun, deputy director general of China's General Administration of Customs.

Referring to the difficulties of the international environment, he said that geopolitical conflicts continue to disturb the economic and commercial order of the world, and trade protectionism and unilateralism are also increasing. However, he described the global economy as resilient and predicted that China's trade would continue to grow steadily.

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