Scenarios for Iran-US Confrontation on the Eve of Congressional Elections: Why Isfahan's Mountains Are a More Attractive Target Than a Ground Operation?
Dr. Mostafa Entezari Heravi, Professor of Political Science at the University, analyzes the calculations of Washington, Tel Aviv and Arab capitals. Read on and see.
In a situation where speculations about the future of military tensions between Iran, America and the Zionist regime have reached their peak, Isfahan region and its strategic facilities have once again been in the focus of international analysts.
In his analysis, Dr. Mustafa Inteziri Hervi, professor of political science, has explained the possible dimensions and scenarios facing Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and regional actors in the days leading up to the elections.
1. Trump's temptation for "last-minute achievement"
One of the serious scenarios on the Pentagon's table is Donald Trump's attempt to create a quick and flashy media victory before the election. In order to have a direct impact on the Republican vote, Trump needs to instill the proposition that he has been able to strike Iran's nuclear facilities as in strike scenarios (similar to spot operations and short-term wars) and show himself as the winner of the Middle East crisis by claiming "Tehran's complete defeat".
2. Netanyahu's interests in arson; Suspension of elections under the pretext of emergency
In this equation, Benjamin Netanyahu is the main incentive for the direct entry of the United States into military confrontation. Tel Aviv knows very well that any direct military action by Washington will result in Iran's definite missile and drone response to the occupied territories. The occurrence of this massive conflict gives Netanyahu the best excuse to declare a "state of national emergency", suspend the holding of elections in Israel and ensure the fragile political survival of his government.
3. The fear of the sheikhs and the Arab lobby to restrain Trump
On the other side of the field, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are on high alert and panic. Tehran has clearly shown many times that in case of any invasion, the host bases and American interests in the region will not be out of range. Therefore, Arab capitals, realizing the vulnerability of their energy and economic infrastructure, have used all their diplomatic power and lobbies in Washington to prevent Trump from taking any military action, at least until the elections are held. Because they believe that after the election and with possible pressure from the Democrats and Congress, Trump's hand will be closed for extensive adventures.
4. Red line of ground casualties; Why is Klang Mountain more attractive than the islands?
Another scenario proposed in military circles—such as a limited ground invasion, desecrating the border strip or operations in the Persian Gulf islands—faces a serious obstacle. Trump and the Republicans are very afraid of the return of the "coffin of American soldiers" to the soil of the United States on the eve of voting; A factor that can destroy their electoral superiority overnight.
Therefore, if Washington decides to create new tension, instead of the bloody risk of a ground battle, it prefers to focus on air and penetration attacks against specific and symbolic targets such as the mountains around Isfahan (Kuh Klang) and other strategic sites; However, the dimensions of Iran's reciprocal response also question the controllability of this scenario.
5. The paradox of "boycott war" and the reality of oil barrels
The idea that Trump can keep the issue of tension with Iran silent until the election and divert the voters' attention by making economic promises is not compatible with the realities on the ground. The continuation of disruption in the movement of vessels and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz will directly increase the global price of energy and gasoline at American gas pumps; A variable that no candidate can hide.
The risk of an "October surprise" in the days leading up to the vote
The total evidence shows that as the voting days in early November (Mid-Aban) get closer, the risk-taking level of the parties increases. If Trump decides to take military action (against strategic targets in Isfahan, the south, or the capital), the most likely timing will be the days very close to the elections; A tactic with the aim of creating a media shock, instilling a sense of victory in the American society and closing the ballot boxes before the terrible consequences of Iran's counter-response and the jump in oil prices have the opportunity to affect the psyche of the voters.