Saudi Arabia's Strategic Blunder in Expanding Infrastructure War in Yemen

Saudi Arabia's attack on Yemen's oil infrastructure has raised the risk of an expanding infrastructure war and, by pushing back the prospect of ending the conflict, places Riyadh's vital and economic centers at serious risk of consequences.

Ambassador Arjan-International Group: Saudi Arabia's recent attack on Yemen's oil facilities near Sana'a shows that Riyadh has once again taken the path of increasing tension; A decision that can make the end of the war further away and at the same time put the economic infrastructure of Saudi Arabia at risk more than before.

Ansarullah has targeted the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia many times before, and the Saudi authorities are aware of the security consequences of such attacks. The new development is not the entry of this movement into the field of Saudi economic infrastructure; Rather, Riyadh's action in attacking Yemen's oil facilities and practical expansion of the field of confrontation. This decision has been taken while the war and siege for about twelve years has caused a lot of damage to the economy and infrastructure of Yemen. On the other hand, the security of energy and transportation centers is of fundamental importance for the Saudi economy and the country's development plans.

From Riyadh's warning to attacks on oil facilities

On Tuesday 21 Mehr, the meeting of the Saudi Council of Ministers chaired by Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of this country, became the basis for a new stage of tension. Saudi officials announced after the meeting that Ansarullah will pay a heavy price for its actions. In addition, the Saudi-led coalition put the oil facilities in the Sabah area around Sana'a on its list of targets by issuing an evacuation warning.

The armed forces of Yemen announced their position before the Saudi attack. Yahya Saree, the spokesman of these forces, warned that if Yemen's oil facilities, Aramco-affiliated centers and a number of important Saudi infrastructures are targeted, they will be military targets. Despite this warning, the Saudi attack was carried out, and the Yemeni forces, in response, organized numerous missile and drone attacks against targets in this country. There were reports of a projectile hitting the Aramco office building in Dhahran and the interception of several other projectiles on the way to Riyadh and different parts of Saudi Arabia.

The trend of events shows that, in addition to escalating the tension, Riyadh also widened the scope of the confrontation by attacking Yemen's oil centers. Ansarullah's response cannot be analyzed separately from the previous warning of this movement and Saudi military action. Saudi officials were aware of the possibility of retaliation, but they attacked anyway, increasing the possibility of the conflict spilling over into the economic infrastructure.

The history of the vulnerability of Saudi energy infrastructure

To evaluate the current developments, it should be noted that the threat to Saudi energy facilities is not a new issue. In the past years, Ansarullah's forces have repeatedly targeted strategic targets deep in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, and oil centers have been among the announced or attacked targets. The 2019 attacks on the Bagiq and Khuris facilities, which severely disrupted Saudi oil production for a while, were a clear example of the vulnerability of these infrastructures. In the following years, attacks and threats related to Saudi oil centers and vital facilities continued.

Therefore, it should not be considered that Ansarullah has entered the economic infrastructure of Saudi Arabia into the war equation for the first time. The important point is Riyadh's new decision to target Yemen's oil infrastructure; An action that, instead of limiting the confrontation, increases the possibility of its continuation and expansion. Past experience has shown that air superiority and economic strength do not guarantee the complete immunity of strategic centers. However, this experience does not seem to have prevented him from choosing a new military path.

If Saudi Arabia's goal was to reduce Ansarullah's operational capability or force Sana'a to retreat, the attack on Yemen's oil facilities may have the opposite result. Such an action allows the Yemeni armed forces to retaliate and once again place the sensitive centers of Saudi Arabia at the center of the country's security calculations.

Cost difference for Yemen and Saudi Arabia

One of the main weaknesses of Riyadh's strategy is the difference in the conditions of the two sides in bearing the costs of this confrontation. In about twelve years of war, Yemen has faced widespread destruction in the transportation, energy, industry and public services sectors. The blockade and economic restrictions have also made the process of reconstruction and production activities more difficult. A large part of Yemen's economic losses were imposed on this country before the recent events, and its people have been struggling with the direct and indirect consequences of the war for years.

This situation does not mean that new damages for Yemen are insignificant. Attacking oil centers can make fuel supply, economic activities and people's daily life more difficult. However, it cannot be assumed that any further destruction will force Ansarullah to retreat politically or militarily. Yemen's economy is already under severe pressure and the ability to bear new damages, although limited and costly, is not the same as Saudi Arabia's economic conditions.

To advance its development plans, Saudi Arabia needs economic stability, investment security, continued energy exports, and normal operation of the transportation network. Large airports, oil centers and Aramco facilities are not the only physical assets and are part of the foundations of Riyadh's economic power and international credibility. As the threat against these centers becomes more serious and lasting, the cost of protecting them will rise and it will be more difficult to introduce Saudi Arabia as a stable environment for investment.

By attacking Yemen's oil facilities, Saudi Arabia has expanded the field, which is not easy to control all its consequences. Previous Ansarullah attacks have shown that Saudi energy centers are vulnerable to missile and drone threats. Therefore, Riyadh could foresee that targeting Yemen's oil facilities would provide the basis for responding to its sensitive centers. Even if such a response leaves limited physical damage, it can still bring security and economic costs; Because the continuation of threats makes it necessary to strengthen defenses and increase protection measures, and increases the possibility of disrupting the activity of vital centers.

This is where the strategic contradiction of this decision lies: in order to put pressure on a country whose infrastructure has already suffered extensive damage, Saudi Arabia is bringing danger to an area that is highly sensitive for its economy and politics. The amount of destruction in Yemen alone is not a sign of Riyadh's victory. Success should be measured by political and security gains, not just the number of attacks or extent of destruction. If the Saudi operation leads to more counterattacks and an increase in Saudi defense spending, this country may have expanded the threat against its interests without achieving the desired goal.

Ansarullah is trying to transfer the cost of the war from Yemen to Saudi Arabia, and this approach is based on a fact: the continuation of the conflict is also costly for Riyadh, and its proximity to the economic centers will leave more tangible effects. Saudi Arabia's insistence on intensifying attacks, in addition to accepting the risk of further reactions, can also limit the opportunities for reducing tension and political management of the crisis.

Riyadh's decision to attack the oil facilities near Sana'a should be weighed in the context of the choice between containing the crisis and spreading it. Saudi Arabia could prevent the conflict from entering a new stage by avoiding targeting Yemen's oil infrastructure. But with the attack, it allowed Ansarullah to justify his reaction by relying on the previous warning and the logic of retaliation. At this stage, the responsibility for the expansion of tension lies with Saudi Arabia; A country that, despite being aware of the history of threats to its energy centers, provided the basis for increasing the risk against them.

escalation of war; A danger to Riyadh's goals

In the end, the main issue is not which side has the power to inflict more damage; The more important question is what cost will the continuation of the war create for each side, and which one will put its strategic interests at greater risk with the expansion of the conflict. Yemen has paid a heavy price for years and has lost a significant part of its infrastructure. Saudi Arabia also needs stability to maintain its economic security, regional position and development plans.

Therefore, expanding the conflict to infrastructure is not necessarily an effective way to force Ansarullah to retreat. If this process involves successive threats against Saudi centers, the cost of the war will increase for Riyadh, without guaranteeing the achievement of political goals. Saudi Arabia's miscalculation is that it thinks it can increase the scope of the war, without including its own vulnerabilities in the equation.