Climate Change and Drone Attacks Are Intensifying the Human Crisis in War-Torn Sudan

Relief groups warn of an imminent collapse of the health system as clashes continue to displace civilians during planting season. The UN has renewed the arms embargo, but only for Darfur.

Climate change, drone attacks exacerbate Sudan's humanitarian crisis

14/10/2026 14 October 2026 Aid groups warn of imminent collapse of health system as clashes continue to displace civilians during planting season. The UN has extended the arms embargo, but only for Darfur.

In Sudan, clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have intensified in North Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile state. The war has forced thousands of civilians to flee during the planting season.

Since the war between the two factions and their allied militias began in April 2023, both sides have been fighting for power. However, none of them have been able to establish control over the entire country.

The SAF, the country's official army, controls northern and central Sudan, including the capital, Khartoum, while RSF forces maintain a presence in the West Darfur region and parts of the south.

According to the United Nations and international aid organizations, Sudan's brutal war has plunged it into one of the worst humanitarian and displacement crises in the world. Estimated death tolls range from 40,000 to 250,000 as reliable figures remain difficult to obtain amid the ongoing conflict. More than 12.4 million Sudanese have been displaced either inside Sudan or in neighboring countries.

This week, the aid organization Action Against Hunger sounded the alarm.

"24.6 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity," Sebastian Friedrich Rost, executive director of the NGO's German division, told DW.

Friedrich-Rust added that an estimated 825,000 children under the age of 5 will suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2026, while a total of 4.2 million children and pregnant or lactating women are thought to be acutely malnourished.

In October, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) – which monitors food insecurity and uses the internationally recognized Integrated Food Security Stage Classification (IPC) system – also warned that several areas, including IDP camps in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, would face a severe disaster (IPC in the most severe food stage classification).

"The situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate and humanitarian needs are increasing, even as response resources are reduced," said Fabricia Falcione, UNFPA's Sudan representative, the UN's sexual and reproductive health agency.

"I recently visited the Tawila refugee camp and I'm still trying to find the words to describe what I witnessed," Falcone told DW. Imagine a population larger than Frankfurt, Germany being forced to leave their homes and seek refuge in one place in less than three years.

He added that more than 700,000 people there rely on just one hospital capable of performing C-sections.

Despite repeated warnings about the deteriorating humanitarian situation, the 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan, which requires $2.9 billion (€2.59 billion), is only 41 percent funded, with $1.2 billion (€1.07 billion) received so far from international donors.

Community kitchen fights hunger in Sudan's Tawila camp

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Climate shocks exacerbate Sudan's humanitarian crisis

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) recently warned that extreme heat and severe flooding are worsening the crisis in Sudan.

Hager Ali, a Sudanese researcher at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA), told DW: "This year, a severe heat wave caused power outages of up to 12 hours a day in some areas. Riverbeds and fields are barren, which in addition to the war damage, the RSF's scorched earth tactics and environmental destruction.

While drought has affected almost half of the country, heavy rains and localized flooding have worsened conditions in other parts of Sudan.

"As if that wasn't enough, there is also a severe shortage of fertilizer and diesel," Ali told DW.

Sudan relies on imported fertilizer and diesel, which is transported from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. However, amid Iran's wider war, Iran has blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened and sometimes disrupted shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

"Fertilizer supply has been reduced from 450,000 metric tons to only 50,000 tons in 2026," Ali said, adding that the shortage of similar diesel and the skyrocketing cost of diesel blends have created the situation in two ways.

"Agricultural equipment uses diesel, and it becomes much more expensive to transport humanitarian and agricultural goods within the country," Ali said.

In October, the International Institute for Food Policy Research warned that prices of staple food and fuel in Sudan would rise sharply in September 2026.

Limited arms embargoes limit the hope of ending the war

Observers have long pointed out that the war in Sudan will not end until foreign backers stop providing arms. The SAF is officially supported by Egypt, Turkey, Russia and Iran, while the United Arab Emirates is said to be the main sponsor of the RSF, a claim that Abu Dhabi denies.

However, in October, the UN Security Council extended an existing arms embargo only on Sudan's Darfur region until December 11, abandoning calls for a nationwide embargo.

Noting that Sudan is one of the biggest theaters of drone warfare, Hagar Ali said, "The development of UN sanctions across Sudan included drones in particular." As of 2026, drone strikes are the leading cause of civilian casualties in Sudan.

He also told DW that Harith Idris Harith Mohammed, Sudan's permanent representative to the United Nations, has opposed the sanctions because of concerns that it would disproportionately limit Sudan's armed forces on the battlefield.

"The arms embargo prevents potential sponsors from cooperating with the Sudanese armed forces, while the Rapid Support Forces do not necessarily obtain their weapons through official channels," said Hagar Ali.

"The ISF relies on smuggling with other militias, private military contractors and businessmen in the region," he said. He added that because the RSF receives supplies from multiple sources and actors, it is difficult to target the group through a single sanction.

Sudan's civil war - limits on humanitarian aid

Jennifer Holleis is an editor and political analyst specializing in the Middle East and North Africa.