Why is Trump on the verge of defeat? Former CIA analyst: Fragile truce is the only option to save America from the war of attrition

The insistence of the US President on the continuation of war measures such as the naval blockade and the application of all-round pressure against Iran with the aim of registering a "decisive victory" and history, is based on a completely linear view with zero sum, which will ultimately end in an inevitable defeat for Washington; The former senior CIA analyst believes that the hope of forcing the White House to unconditional surrender or the collapse of the regime in Tehran is a devastating illusion and the only real way forward.

Trump's zero-sum approach will trap America in the quagmire of war

The insistence of the US President on the continuation of war measures such as the naval blockade and the application of all-round pressure against Iran with the aim of registering a "decisive victory" and history, is based on a completely linear view with zero sum, which will ultimately end in an inevitable defeat for Washington; The former senior analyst of the CIA believes that the hope of closing the White House to unconditional surrender or the collapse of the regime in Tehran is a devastating illusion, and the only real way forward for Washington will be to agree to a minimal and realistic ceasefire before deepening the regional and nuclear crises.

According to Ambassador Arjan, Paul Pilar, a former senior analyst of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and a researcher at the Quincy think tank, wrote in an analytical note for Responsible Statecraft that US President Donald Trump, by evaluating the operations of the US Navy in the Strait of Hormuz and blocking a major part of Iran's oil exports and imports, thinks that the conflict has not reached a stalemate and that Washington has the upper hand.

Pilar clarifies that the field reality of the oil cycle and the distribution of economic pains is much more complicated than the claims of the White House and does not bring a one-sided advantage for the United States; But Trump is looking for a result that he can call a great victory by considering the naval blockade, which is itself a clear example of the declaration of war, as a lever of pressure.

From Trump's point of view, the world is always a zero-sum game between winners and losers, and because he never admits his mistakes, he has kept the fires of war burning just to find an achievement that can be credited to the institution.

Recalling his previous research on how wars end, Pilar noted that even so-called unconditional surrenders are actually negotiated deals in which the surrendering party agrees to give up its remaining resistance capacity in exchange for stopping the enemy's aggression; An approach that shows that reducing the strategy of war to victory or defeat, leads to vital interests and the requirements of sustainable peace.

The mirage of atomic scoring and dangerous nuclear gambling

Trump's desired victory can take two forms: the surrender of the Iranian political system and concessions far beyond the past, or the complete collapse of the power structure in Tehran.

There is an obvious contradiction between these two goals; A government that believes that the other side is bent on its destruction, sees no motivation to cede concessions and finds no other way than to continue the battle ahead.

In the area of negotiations, JD Vance, the vice president of the United States, claimed last week that peace requires a significant reduction in uranium enrichment by Iran; However, the continuation of foreign attacks has produced the opposite result and has strengthened the voices in Tehran that are pushing for the withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the need to achieve nuclear deterrence.

Pilar emphasizes that any sustainable nuclear agreement requires an extremely complex text similar to the JCPOA with 159 pages of technical details, which was the product of years of negotiations by hundreds of experts; An agreement that will never be reached by the likes of Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner in two business meetings.

In addition, the White House has doubled the complexity of the task by signing the recent nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia (which grants Riyadh the possibility of 20% enrichment without the strictest inspections); Because no government in Tehran accepts that its nuclear program is limited to a lower level than its regional rival on the other side of the Persian Gulf.

Collapse mirage; From the empowerment of radicals to the terror of pragmatic rationalists

In the second part of his evaluation, Pilar deals with the claim of regime change and it is recalled that Trump claimed to have achieved this goal after the assassination of senior leaders in the first days of the war, but the objective result was the unprecedented strengthening of hardline movements and the strengthening of the position of the Revolutionary Guards compared to the past.

The continuation of the war may push Iran's governance structure even beyond the current situation towards a more stubborn government, which will silence the few remaining moderate voices.

Even in the event of political changes, America needs a government that has the ability to implement lasting commitments from all factions.

In this context, Pilar mentions the assassination of Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, during the Israeli airstrikes as a great loss; A figure who, despite his dependence on the hard core of power, was considered a pragmatic politician with the necessary political influence to make valid commitments on behalf of the entire decision-making structure in Tehran.

getting out of the deadlock; The need for a minimal ceasefire and the end of the adventure

Rejecting the hypothesis of the collapse of the people in the midst of fire and blood, the former senior analyst of the CIA states that there have been numerous protests throughout the history of the Islamic Republic, but they have not resulted in collapse; In addition, in the current situation, there is no coherent leadership and movement similar to what Ayatollah Khomeini led in 1357.

The military attacks and comprehensive economic sanctions of the United States have created a phenomenon known as "unity around the flag" among the Iranian people; Because the citizens understand correctly that these attacks have targeted the entire existence of the country and the consequence of these policies will be the formation of long-lasting anger and hatred towards Washington in the public opinion of the Iranian society, which no future government can ignore.

Paul Pillar concludes his note that the United States should not count on Iran's early surrender or political collapse as a precondition for ending the war.

The only realistic and available way to contain this crisis is to agree to a minimal ceasefire agreement and a framework that postpones substantive negotiations to the future; A model similar to the Khordad month memorandum of understanding, provided that the ambiguous terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which caused the violation of that understanding, are corrected; A president seeking to claim victory will then have to rely solely on his rhetorical skills to portray the ceasefire as a war victory.