Forecast of the stock market tomorrow, Saturday, October 25 Do Trump's threats cause the stock market to fall?

After registering the new ceiling, the stock market is in a dilemma of continuing to rise or correcting, and choosing the future course of the stock market is only possible by monitoring economic and political variables.

Economic Group - Mehdi Safai: The stock market welcomes Saturday's trading while the escalation of Donald Trump's threats against Iran has once again turned political and military risks into one of the determining factors of the stock market. The decline of the total index occurred on the last trading day of the week, when the market had started its work with demand; But increasing concerns about the possibility of a new wave of attacks changed the course of trading.

In recent days, contradictory statements about the course of the war and negotiations have reduced the predictability of the situation. New news about the review of new military options by the United States have also added to the uncertainties; However, planning possible options does not mean a definitive decision to carry out an attack. In such an environment, traders may act more cautiously and convert some of their holdings into cash before the political landscape becomes clearer.

Stock market reaction to military threats

The total index of the stock exchange reached the range of 8 million 425 thousand units with a drop of 34 thousand 770 points in the transactions of Wednesday, 22 Mehr. This index had even grown at the beginning of the trading, but as the news about military threats intensified, its course changed. The weighted index increased in contrast to the total index and stood at the level of 2 million and 225 thousand units; A sign that the selling pressure was not equal in the major and minor symbols.

On the same day, the value of transactions reached more than 50 hemat, but the net outflow of real money was about 800 billion tomans. The per capita sale of real goods was also higher than the per capita purchase. This combination shows that trading turnover is still high, but political concerns have led some traders to sell. However, the exit of money at this level alone is not enough to conclude about the beginning of a widespread decline and it is necessary to see how the behavior of supply and demand changes in the first session of the week.

Does the risk of war lead to the fall of the stock market?

The risk of war can affect the stock market in several ways; Increasing uncertainty, changing currency expectations, concern about the activities of companies and the possibility of disruption in production or export are among these paths. In such a situation, even stocks that are in good fundamental condition may face selling pressure in the short term; Because traders in crisis periods, in addition to valuing companies, also include the risk of holding assets in their decision.

However, the market reaction to political news is not necessarily one-sided and stable. If threats do not lead to new military action, or if there are signs of an easing of tensions, some demand may return. On the other hand, the escalation of conflicts can increase the selling pressure, and even the high transaction value cannot prevent the index from falling. Therefore, the direction of the stock market tomorrow will largely depend on political developments and how investors react to them.

For the first trading day of the week, two main scenarios can be considered. In the first scenario, the continuation of threats and the absence of a clear sign of a reduction in tension will cause traders to be cautious and increase supply in some symbols. In this situation, there is a possibility of a low or negative start for the market; Especially if the outflow of real money continues and the number of negative symbols increases.

In the second scenario, if there is no new news about the escalation of the conflict and the demand can absorb the initial market supply, it is possible to adjust the selling pressure and the relative return of the indices. In this case, the value of transactions and the net inflow and outflow of real money will be two important indicators to evaluate the stability of demand.

In general, due to the direct effect of military threats on Wednesday's trading, the Saturday market is facing the risk of increased supply and more volatility, and the continuation of last week's rise cannot be considered certain. However, it is also premature to predict a widespread decline without clear signs of intensifying selling pressure. The behavior of the total index along with the equal weight index, real money flow and market reaction to political news will further define the likely direction of transactions.