Stock Market Forecast for Wednesday, 22 Mehr 1405 (October 14, 2026) | What Factor Is Driving the Market Decline?

Economic indicators point to a continued upward trend in the capital market. However, risks remain, including raw material shortages and administrative price controls, which could make the rise difficult or even lead to index declines.

Economic Group - Mehdi Safai: The stock market was accompanied by the growth of the main indices and the arrival of more than 5 hemats of real money in today's trading, Tuesday, 21 Mehr. Despite the increase in supply at the end of trading, demand still prevailed in a significant part of the market; An issue that reinforces the possibility of a continuation of the upward trend in tomorrow's trading, although profit recognition after the recent growth can lead to increased volatility.

Transaction value and money entry; Support market growth

The value of today's transactions reached about 50 Hamats and more than 5.5 Hamats of real money entered shares, pre-emptive rights and stock funds. The combination of these two variables with the growth of the total and weighted index indicates the strengthening of demand. However, in order to evaluate the sustainability of this trend, it should be seen whether the influx of liquidity will continue in tomorrow's transactions and whether buyers will be able to attract new supplies or not.

The important thing is that today's market, despite the strong start and the temporary crossing of the total index over 8.5 million units, could not maintain this level at the end of trading. The increase in supply in the next few minutes shows that along with the strong demand, some traders are also recognizing profits. Therefore, the behavior of the market in higher ranges can be of special importance to detect the strength of buyers.

Will the stock market remain bullish tomorrow?

For Wednesday trading, the continuation of the positive atmosphere is still one of the notable scenarios. The influx of real money, the high transaction value, and the accompanying equal-weighted index indicate that recent growth has enjoyed relatively broad demand. If these conditions are maintained at the beginning of trading tomorrow, the total index can once again try to cross the level of 8.5 million units.

On the other hand, consecutive rallies can increase the motivation of short-term traders to sell and save profits. In this case, the market may experience increased supply, more volatility or limited correction of some symbols. Such a situation does not necessarily mean the end of the upward trend; But if it is accompanied by a noticeable decrease in the arrival of real money and an increase in the number of negative symbols, it will be a sign of a temporary weakening of demand.

Other significant points that may make the market situation critical are the risk related to the supply of raw materials and the risk of command pricing. Considering the weak laws in Iran, these cases are considered a worse threat than political risks except for war to maintain the upward trend.

The role of political risks and market outlook

Along with trading variables, political risks can still change the direction of the stock market. The lack of effective negative news and the reduction of concerns about the escalation of tensions can help maintain investors' desire to be in the market. Conversely, any unexpected development that changes economic expectations may cause a portion of current demand to become cautious. Therefore, the continuity of growth cannot be determined solely based on one day's data.

Stock market forecast for tomorrow, Wednesday, October 22

In general, due to the arrival of more than 5 hamats of real money, the value of transactions of nearly 50 hamats and the positive nature of most of the symbols, there is a possibility that the positive trend of the stock market will continue in tomorrow's transactions. However, after today's significant growth, an increase in supply and a short-term correction of some stocks is not far off.

The main criterion for evaluating the direction of the market on Wednesday will not be simply the increase of the total index; Rather, it is more important to maintain the flow of money, the continuation of high transaction value and the company of small and large symbols. If buyers can absorb supplies, another attempt to stabilize the index above 8.5 million units is likely. Otherwise, the market may need a short break before continuing the upward movement.