Rice Prices Rise in India / What Is the Price of a Kilogram of Rice in the World's Largest Rice Exporter?

Retail rice prices in India have reached 46.92 rupees per kilogram, while declining rainfall and lower output could reduce the country's exports in the next calendar year.

According to Ambassador Arjan, considering that the price of each rupee in the Iranian market is in the range of 2707 Tomans, the price of each kilo of rice in this country is on average in the range of 127 thousand Tomans.

India's rice exports are likely to decline by 4 percent to 24 million tons in 2027, according to a report by Financial Express India on October 12, 2026. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted a decrease in the export of white rice and broken rice as one of the reasons for this drop. (Source: Financial Express)

According to the global market analysis of the US Department of Agriculture, which is quoted in this report, the decrease in exportable supply and the increase in prices are the main factors for the possible drop in Indian exports. India accounts for more than 40% of the world's rice trade. (Source: Financial Express, citing the USDA report)

Suraj Agarwal, co-founder and CEO of Rice Villa Rice Export and Marketing Company, told Financial Express that El Nino and unfavorable monsoon conditions could reduce India's rice production by 4.5 percent to 147 million tonnes in the 2026-2027 crop year.

According to the report, if the production decline forecast comes true, it will be the first annual decline in India's rice production since the 2016-2015 crop year. India's rice production reached 154 million tons in the 2025-2026 crop year, and the country became the world's largest rice producer that year.

Agarwal also warned that the US Department of Agriculture's 1.3 million tons reduction in global rice trade forecast for next year could affect supply and prices; Because India supplies about 40 to 45 percent of global rice exports.

The value of India's rice exports between April and August of fiscal year 2026-2027 increased by 2.17% and reached 4.81 billion dollars. Financial Express reported that supply disruptions and increased transportation costs following conflicts in West Asia continue to affect export shipments.

The retail price of rice in India on Sunday, October 11, stood at Rs 46.92 per kg, up 10% from the same period last year. Sources quoted in the report say that the increase in domestic prices due to the decrease in production can also slow down the speed of exports.

However, India's rice stocks remain high. According to a government official quoted by Financial Express, the country's rice reserves have exceeded 38 million tons; While the minimum reserve required for October 1 is 10.25 million tons. The government plans to sell part of the reserves through the open market sale plan to curb the price increase.

Meanwhile, the price of high-quality non-basmati rice, including Sona Masori, Puni and Swarna, has increased by 10-25 percent compared to the previous year. According to Financial Express, the decrease in cultivated area and lack of rainfall, especially in the southern regions of India, have been among the factors of this price increase.

The area under rice cultivation in the current Indian monsoon season has reached 42.92 million hectares with a decrease of 3.7% compared to the previous season. The states of Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are among the regions where a decrease in cultivated area has been reported.

India exports basmati and non-basmati rice to more than 140 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and America, and in some markets it competes with exporters such as Pakistan and Thailand.