Global Tourism Faces Geopolitical Shocks: From 690 Million Trips Recorded to Revised Growth Forecast

Despite 690 million tourist trips in the first half of the year, Middle East tensions, rising energy prices and inflationary pressures have affected the outlook for global tourism growth.

According to the reporter of Aria Heritage, the United Nations World Tourism Organization announced in the latest report "World Tourism Outlook" that the number of international tourists in the first half of 2026 has reached 690 million people with a growth of 0.4% compared to the same period last year. However, the aggravation of geopolitical uncertainties, the increase in oil prices and inflationary pressures have limited the growth of this industry and reduced the forecast of this institution for the growth of international tourism in the whole year to 1-2%.

According to this report, between January and June of this year, about three million more international trips were recorded than in the same period of 2025. However, the seasonal trend of trips does not indicate the continuation of a uniform growth; In such a way that the arrival of international tourists increased by 2% in the first quarter of the year, but decreased by 1% in the second quarter.

According to the evaluation of the World Tourism Organization, the number of international tourist arrivals decreased by 3% in April; A drop that is partly attributed to the time shift of the Easter holiday and its beginning in March, and another part to the consequences of conflicts in the Middle East. In June, the arrival of tourists worldwide decreased by 3%.

the Middle East; The main focus of tourism decline at the regional level

The regional data of the World Tourism Organization shows that the performance of tourist destinations in the first half of 2026 was not the same. During this period, Africa recorded a more positive performance with a 4% growth and Europe with a 3% increase in the arrival of international tourists. In America, the arrival of tourists increased by 2%.

On the other hand, the Asia and Pacific region experienced a one percent growth; However, the number of tourists arriving in this region was still 11% lower than the level of 2019, i.e. before the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruption in air communication, increase in the price of flight tickets and the continuation of uncertainties are among the factors affecting travel demand in this region.

The sub-regional survey also indicates the difference in trends; So that Northeast Asia had a 3% growth in the first half of the year, while South Asia experienced a 5% decrease and Southeast Asia experienced a 1% drop in tourist arrivals, compared to the same period last year.

In the Middle East, the number of international tourist arrivals decreased by 22% during the same period; A drop that the World Tourism Organization has identified as directly related to regional conflicts.

According to this report, disruption in air traffic since early March affected tourism in the Middle East and some other regions. However, after a cease-fire was announced in May and early June, some flight restrictions were gradually eased, some routes reopened, and there were signs of improved passenger confidence; However, the process of returning demand has not been the same in all destinations.

Decrease in global tourism growth forecast in 2026

Taking into account new data and the continuation of geopolitical fluctuations, the World Tourism Organization has reduced its forecast for the growth of international tourist arrivals in 2026 to 1-2% from the range of 3-4% announced in January.

This institution has emphasized that the realization of the same amount of growth will also depend on the duration of the conflict, its effect on the price of oil and the global inflation trend.

The increase in transportation and accommodation costs, along with the fluctuation of energy prices and inflationary pressures, are important factors affecting the decision-making of travelers and the performance of tourist destinations. In such a situation, tourists are expected to pay more attention to the economic value of travel than before, and part of the demand will be directed to domestic trips or destinations closer to the place of residence.

Emphasis on the resilience of tourism destinations against crises

Referring to the results of this report, Sheikha Al Nawais, Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization, stated that the new data show that the tourism industry continues to follow the path of growth despite serious pressures. But this growth is fragile.

Emphasizing the extra-regional effects of developments in the Middle East, he noted that the consequences of the crisis have reached tourism destinations beyond the region's geographical boundaries. From the point of view of the Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization, this situation reminds us of the need to strengthen resilience throughout the tourism industry.