A woman at the top of the UN Secretary General race; Why has no candidate passed the veto barrier?

The latest test vote for the election of the UN Secretary General shows that none of the seven candidates in the competition could win the support of all five permanent members of the Security Council.

According to Ambassador Arjan's international reporter, the results of the sixth trial vote of the UN Security Council on the candidates for the future Secretary General of this organization show that Rebecca Greenspan, the economist and former official of the Costa Rican government and the Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), is still in the first place of the competition.

In the voting on October 16, 2026, he was able to get 9 votes in favor, five votes against and one vote without declaring an opinion; A result that indicates the continuation of his relative superiority among the present candidates.

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However, the most important part of Greenspan's result is not simply reaching the 9-vote mark; Rather, it is the combination of his votes. Three votes in favor and two votes against were recorded among the five permanent members of the Security Council. This means that, despite having enough support in terms of the total number of positive votes, he still faces the opposition of two veto powers.

In next place, Caroline Rodríguez-Birkett, a Guyanese diplomat, received eight votes in favor, six against and one abstention. Among his positive votes, three votes belonged to the permanent members and two votes against the same group.

Rafael Grossi, the Argentine director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also won eight votes in favor and six votes against; But two permanent members supported his candidacy and two permanent members opposed him.

These results show that the main competition is currently going on between these three candidates, but none of them has reached the stage of political consensus. Greenspan leads in terms of the number of votes in favor, Rodriguez-Birkett has the support of three permanent members, and Grossi remains among the serious options. However, the tentative vote has yet to determine which candidate will ultimately win the support necessary for a formal nomination to the General Assembly.

Among the other four candidates, Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal, received five votes in favor and 10 votes against. Ugandan diplomat Ulara Otunu had four votes in favor, 10 votes against and one abstention.

María Fernando Espinosa, the former foreign minister of Ecuador, got three votes in favor, nine votes against and three votes without expressing an opinion. Yvonne A-Baki, the Ecuadorian candidate nominated by Tonga, also received only one vote in favor to 14 against, and all five permanent members opposed his candidacy.

Such results show that the distance between these four candidates and the three leading options is significant; However, in a process whose final decision depends on political negotiations, the possibility of changing the composition of candidates cannot be completely ruled out.

How did the color sheets reveal the veto equation?

The special importance of the October 16 voting is that, for the first time in this period of competition, colored sheets were used to separate the votes of the five permanent members of the Security Council from the votes of the 10 non-permanent members.

Previously, five test polls were held on July 30, August 21, September 18 and 29, and October 7; But their results did not directly indicate which objections belonged to veto powers.

In the new method, the color of the ballots indicates that the voter was a permanent or non-permanent member of the Council. In this voting, permanent members voted with red cards and non-permanent members with white cards.

The options of each sheet also included three options: "agree", "disagree" and "no opinion". This mechanism allows council members and candidates to have a clearer picture of the political obstacles facing each candidate.

The five permanent members of the Security Council are the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. These countries have the right of veto; A right that also plays a decisive role in the selection of the Secretary General. According to Article 97 of the UN Charter, the Secretary General is elected by the appointment of the General Assembly and on the recommendation of the Security Council. In practice, the recommendation of the Security Council requires at least 9 votes in favor from the total of 15 members and no dissenting votes from any of the five permanent members.

For this reason, achieving 9 votes in favor alone does not mean passing the Security Council stage. Greenspan has reached the quorum, but two dissenting votes from permanent members are his main obstacle.

The situation of Grossi and Rodríguez-Birket is also similar in this respect. Color cards have actually revealed the gap between "the relative popularity of a candidate" and "the possibility of his election".

Of course, a negative vote in a test vote does not mean a definite veto in the future official vote. These polls are informal and their main purpose is to gauge support and identify potential obstacles.

A permanent member can change its position during the next negotiations; Therefore, the current opposition does not mean that a candidate's path is definitely closed. However, until these objections are resolved, the official introduction of the candidate to the General Assembly will face a serious obstacle.

How many more rounds are left and which candidate has more chances?

Unlike elections where the number of rounds is predetermined, the Security Council's trial ballots for electing the Secretary General do not have a fixed ceiling. Therefore, it is impossible to say with certainty whether there will be another round or two, or at what point exactly the competition will conclude.

In the 2016 Secretary-General selection process, six tentative votes were held, and the Security Council finally recommended Antonio Guterres for the post in October. But in the 2026 race, the end of the sixth ballot has not yet led to an agreement on a candidate, and it is still possible to continue voting or change the composition of candidates.

The lack of a candidate who can attract the support of five permanent members has raised the possibility of new candidates entering the competition.

The representative of the United States in the United Nations announced after the vote that countries have the right to nominate other candidates in terms of sovereignty.

However, any new candidate will have a limited opportunity to gain the support of the council members; Because the term of Secretary General Guterres will end on December 31, 2026, and the Security Council must reach an agreement before that to provide enough time to review and appoint his successor in the General Assembly.

Greenspan is currently in a better position in terms of selection chances. He was not only in the lead in the sixth voting with 9 votes in favor, but also in four of the previous five voting stages. This record shows that support for his candidacy has been relatively stable throughout the race. However, the final result showed that this support is still not enough to pass the barrier of permanent members.

Grossi and Rodríguez-Birket are still his serious competitors. Both have eight votes in favor and both are opposed by two permanent members. Hence, Greenspan's unanimity distance alone cannot be seen as a sign of his decisive superiority in the final negotiations. Changing the position of a permanent member can change the conditions for each of these three candidates; Just as the disagreement between the great powers can open the way for the introduction of a new candidate.

who is he It has said it will immediately restructure the secretary-general's office to highlight its mediation role and strengthen it as a trusted mediator that better uses discreet diplomacy. He also wants UN peacekeeping operations to work more closely with regional groups on the ground.

Greenspan says the UN should reduce overlapping responsibilities and be more efficient; make better use of your budget; anticipate and respond to crises faster, including through technology and artificial intelligence; and be more accountable, with appointments based on merit and zero tolerance for wrongdoing.

On development, Greenspan wants fairer borrowing terms for poorer countries, including an end to debt repayments that drain money needed for essential services.